Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 #11 The Wheelbarrow – Good winner last start and a stack of upside.
Race 6 #12 Time Of My Life – Another last start winner and strong through the line. Well placed.
Race 8 #8 Chief In Charge- Good turn of foot and just needs some luck in running.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2m
- Weather has been good.
- Rail placement is good.
- Not great fields but decent size and keen to get into a few.
- Let’s get them.
Key Stats:
- Adam Campton is making a run at them. 8 winners from last 50 and ROI +17%. Two runners and both winning chances today.
- Not the best book of rides for Cody Collis but he has ridden 9 winners from last 50 with POI +17.6%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Half the field scratched and race ruined again.
(5) High Authority got a long way back on debut but was very good late. Winner bolted in but he was the best of the rest. Like the race experience and can improve.
(4) Girmay and (13) Hit A Lick come out of the same trial and not much between them.
Selections:
(5) High Authority
(4) Girmay
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 2:
I have been with (3) Enterprise Private for the last two wins at $14 and $5.50, so no reason to jump off. Genuine stayer who is rock hard fit with a jock that rides him well.
(1) Prince Levi is another stayer on the rise and deserved the win last start. Has a good record at the track and a suitable race yet again.
(4) Akkadian Emperor looks the other winning chance. Very good run 2nd up where he ran 2nd best L200m of the race and sure to strip fitter and show best 3rd up.
Selections:
(3) Enterprise Private
(1) Prince Levi
(4) Akkadian Emperor
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(2) Berezka has a good record in Qld. Finished off last prep up here in great form. First two runs in Syd have been pass marks this time in and fitter 3rd up now.
(5) Fireforce continues to run well without winning. Gets a 3kg claim, maps well and gets every possible chance yet again.
I’ve been with (9) The Stars the first two runs this prep but she was plain last start. Tempo was way too slow for her but still just plodded. Typical Waller means she is probably fitter 3rd up and ready to show best.
(11) Till Dusk is lightly raced and in a great stable. Flashed late first-up and could do the same again here. Close to double figures looks some value.
Selections:
(11) Till Dusk
(2) Berezka
(5) Fireforce
Suggested Bet: Quinella 2,5,11
Race 4:
A lot to like about (1) Headhunter. Has won a couple already this prep and this looks slightly easier than last start. Likes this track, likes this trip but I wish they went for a senior jock.
(11) The Wheelbarrow was the best of the day last week and duly saluted. He is a nice 3 year old on the way up and like the fact he drew a gate here. Has a heap of upside to come and looks well placed by a good stable.
(12) Pele Princess is consistent but lacks a little class for me. Always good late splits but from the gate has a task at hand.
(15) Canara has to be respected with Vic form and Waller trained.
Selections:
(11) The Wheelbarrow
(1) Headhunter
(15) Canara
Suggested Bet: Win (11) The Wheelbarrow
Race 5:
Not much speed here and might favour those on speed.
(1) Fabulantes was well supported last start and saluted for punters. It was over this track/trip where it got back to last and let down like the good horse he is. Can sit closer if needed here, takes a 2kg claim and the one to beat again. He took on a few that are here again but hard to see any of them turning the tables.
The fresh horse on the scene is (9) Capital Chord and it could not have been any more impressive on debut. She went back to near last on debut and blew them away. Some sort of win and has the most upside here. Might be very smart but may have to come from last.
(3) Shredded has only been winning in the northern rivers but had the ears pricked for 150m last start and has a heap of improvement to come. Can run into the money here somewhere.
Selections:
(1) Fabulantes
(9) Capital Chord
(3) Shredded
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,3,9
Race 6:
Looks to be decent speed in this race with (9) Surreal Ascot trying to use its good gate to lead. (4) Greyzous is out wide and only has 52.5kg, expect them to push the button early and try to cross.
This leaves (3) Carravilla trying to slot in behind them but may need a little luck getting across from the gate. Won first two starts this prep and then runner up last start to a handy one. If she finds cover she can win.
(12) Time Of My Life would like to lead but maybe they just take a sit behind that speed and save her for the last shot. Loved the way she finished off over 1200m last start and this trip looks suitable off that win. 4th up, set to peak and drops 5kg here.
Just the 62kg is the big query for (1) Scud. She has ability but it’s a big task.
Selections:
(12) Time Of My Life
(3) Carravilla
Suggested Bet: Win (12) Time Of My Life
Race 7:
Interesting race. Don’t like wide gates as a rule here and some leading chances are out wide. They do have speed so they might roll forward and put some speed into the race.
Best example is (6) Moravia who bounced back to winning form last start. Slow run race with rail out and I think was a bit flattered there. Can win but I’m happy to take him on here.
(14) Scripted has probably been one of the unluckiest horses you could find recently. Barriers 21, 10 and 13 her last three starts. Came from last her first two runs this prep and was outstanding. Can she finally get the right luck from a good draw?
(10) Spiethtacular has been good since joining Gollan and from gate 1 looks as though she can hold out all the speed drawn out wide. Out to this trip is a little query but rock hard fit and worth a try with 3kg coming off.
(12) Dominant Darcy will sit outside the stablemate and also take a spot those outside want to find. She is lightly raced, this is the right trip and looks to have good upside left. Very hard to beat.
Selections:
(14) Scripted
(12) Dominant Darcy
(10) Spiethtacular
Suggested Bet: Win (14) Scripted
Race 8:
Better starting point here but still want to map well.
(8) Chief In Charge looked one of the best bets at the midweeks and scratched for this. Has shown a turn of foot in his last two wins, draws well and Thornton rides. A little harder but gets his chance. Even if he is held up a little early in the straight it may just help his turn of foot.
(4) Ruins Of Rome is underrated but just lacks the dash to really go through the grades. Was wide the trip last start and brave through the line. Will look the winner at some stage.
(7) Boom Shot can give them a fright but I have lost too much on him to go again. A must for exotic players.
Selections:
(8) Chief In Charge
(4) Ruins Of Rome
(7) Boom Shot
Suggested Bets: Win bet (8) Chief In Charge
Race 9:
Two key scratchings and another race that’s dropped away.
(3) Make A Call was an eye catching win fresh but the race was set up for them to flash from the back. Strips fitter, with Gollan and have to respect.
(7) Bengal Diamond always needs luck but she is a mare in form and was dominant last start. The key was landing closer in the run last start and she blew them away. Her last two wins have been with Thompson on but he doesn’t ride here.
Selections:
(7) Bengal Diamond
(3) Make A Call
Suggested Bets: Win (7) Bengal Diamond
Race 10:
Don’t like this race.
(13) Zoubaby had good support and was dominant last start. Strong speed suited and couldn’t have got it set up any better. Draws well to sit off the speed and be strong late again.
Not sure what to do with (8) Colourful Emperor. Has ability and the Syd form is OK. Trials also OK but may need the run here. Market might be the only guide race day.
Would not be surprised if (4) About To Explode got to the outside and let rip late. I have a lot of time for him and it was just a trial to blow the cobwebs out recently.
(11) Dream Smart has good ability but the wide gate puts me off in this.
Selections:
(13) Zoubaby
(4) About To Explode
Suggested Bets: Nope
