Andrew Hawkins is a long-time international racing expert with extensive experience across the globe, including with the Hong Kong Jockey Club, World Horse Racing, Racing Post and Sky Racing. He is now one of Australia’s premier Olympic Games and Commonwealth Games researchers.
Turf Talk:
- The track was rated as good to soft on Friday but with a sunny, windy afternoon ahead and a sunny Saturday morning, it should be a perfect surface.
- Greyville is not renowned for its grass cover and the way the track is set up, expect to see horses coming to the centre of the track – especially with the slight cutaway rail (two metres) from the 400m.
- There is typically a low draw bias over 1400m and 1600m on turf, while low draws are favoured on the polytrack as well.
Key stats:
- Craig Zackey currently leads the South African jockeys’ championship with 266 wins since August 1, with Richard Fourie on 207, Keagan de Melo on 139 and Muzi Yeni on 138. By strike rate, though, it is Aldo Domeyer on top with 22.67 per cent to Fourie’s 21.65 per cent and de Melo’s 20.65 per cent.
- In KwaZulu-Natal (so Greyville and Scottsville), de Melo just leads with 62 wins – one ahead of Serino Moodley and Sean Veale on 61.
- Justin Snaith will be named South Africa’s champion trainer for the seventh time. It is based on earnings; if it were on wins, Alan Greeff on 136 would edge out Snaith (121) and Sean Tarry (116).
- Tarry and de Melo are striking at 29 per cent together with 31 wins from 107 rides. They combine with Ocean Princess in the fifth.
Race 1
The first two and the last two races are on the inner polytrack, which has a 2000m circumference, a 400m straight and can only accommodate a maximum of 12 runners. It has a width of 14.6m – even Australia’s narrowest tracks like Darwin and Canberra’s Acton circuit are wider than that.
The first is a Class 4, which is a lower-to-mid tier handicap. Horses here have merit ratings between 76 and 85; by comparison, the country’s best horse has a merit rating of 132.
(10) Sommerstern heads to the poly for the first time. He’s won three of his nine starts including his last effort at Scottsville. He has shown a tendency to do things wrong, overracing at times, and gate 10 will make it tough for Callan Murray. However, if he can keep him in a rhythm, he’s the one to beat.
(3) Place Of Practice has only had six starts for one win last start, which came at the course and distance. He has a soft draw and should be able to get out and roll again under Gavin Lerena.
(8) Song To The Moon comes up to Durban from Cape Town. He looks the type to enjoy the poly surface and he comes from the country’s leading stable, Snaith Racing.
(9) United Front is another who should appreciate this track and his trainer Vaughn Marshall is adept with these types of switches.
Suggested bet: None, best to watch.
Race 2
This is a 1600m contest known as a B Stakes event – unlike the opening handicap, it is more a set weights event but still based on merit rating. This event has horses rated between 88 and 96, although there are two reserves in their 70s on the minimum.
(2) Rollo The Viking has produced his two worst performances in recent times on soft ground here at Greyville. He has a good poly record with four wins from nine starts, including the Class 4 handicap last year, and he is expected to bounce right back for Richard Fourie. It’s worth noting that his October course and distance victory saw him beat a horse named Mocha Blend, who won the G1 Summer Cup at Turffontein in November and who contests the Durban July later on the card.
(5) Bruh has only had one start on the Greyville poly for a second. He has been racing well on turf and this looks a good spot for him as a first-time gelding.
(10) Capsaicin’s poly form is not overly strong but he was game in victory at Scottsville last time out and he’s worth another chance on the surface.
(3) Please Be True has been racing well in Cape Town and deserves plenty of respect.
Suggested bet: (2) Rollo The Viking the best of the day.
Race 3
The G3 Magical Zulu Kingdom 2200 is the first of eight races on turf at Greyville. It is the consolation for the Durban July, for horses that just missed out on the feature, and comes over the same course and distance and under the same handicap conditions. It is worth watching for how the turf might play for the rest of the day – usually, they will start coming to the centre or even wider out.
(5) Imilenzeyokududuma – named for former Bafana Bafana player Jerry Sikhosana, whose nickname “Legs of Thunder” has been translated to Xhosa to get this name – ran well up to 2400m last time out behind Durban July contender Native Ruler. A repeat of that effort should see him in the mix.
(12) Otto Luyken won this race last year and showed last time out at Kenilworth that he was working his way into form again. Everything sets up quite similarly to last year, including the wide draw and the weight.
(2) Tintin steps up dramatically in grade but has won five of his last seven starts from 1200m to 1600m. It’s a coin flip as to whether he will stay but he gets every opportunity to see it out from gate two. Could be right in the mix if he stays.
(4) Tenpenny mixes his form but he is capable on his day and has won at 2500m. The very best of Tenpenny would be hard to beat.
Suggested bet: Imilenzeyokududuma to win.
Race 4
South Africa is not traditionally known for its stayers, but the G3 Durban Gold Vase gives those marathoners the chance for undercard glory on July day as a lead-up to the Gold Cup over 3200m later in the month.
Note that Curious Girl, who was originally set to start hard in the market here, will run in the July itself after gaining a start as second reserve.
(4) Holding Thumbs finished a distant second to July runner King Pelles in this race last year. There are no stamina doubts with him but he is coming off two poor efforts, so he needs to turn his form around.
(10) Ahead Of The Facts was also in the race last year, finishing third to King Pelles and Holding Thumbs. He gets a nice weight drop from his last run and he looks well placed to continue his good recent run of form.
(11) Poets Warrior comes to Durban from Johannesburg. While he is a winner over 3200m at Turffontein, he is better over slightly shorter. However, that added stamina from training at altitude could potentially help him down at sea level here. He does have an awkward draw, though.
(8) Shoot The Rapids is a sure stayer and must be included in all exotics.
Suggested bet: Holding Thumbs to win.
Race 5
South Africa’s Golden Slipper is a Group 2 contest for two-year-old fillies over 1400m.
(13) Palace Of Arvernia has drawn poorly and it does look challenging for her. However, she has drawn wide at both starts to date and she has been able to lead and also settle right near the rear and has run well on both occasions. Whatever Craig Zackey does, she appears professional enough to be able to adapt. She should also enjoy stepping up to 1400m.
(7) Alice B Toklas has won two of her four starts and was very impressive at the course and distance last month. She’s drawn the right spot to be able to land just behind the speed and should be able to pounce early in the straight.
(14) Lady Harlequin is also drawn poorly and steps up beyond 1160m for the first time. She looks like she is crying out for 1400m but it’s going to require a top ride from Zac Lloyd at just his third ride at the track.
(3) Royal Tiara finished off nicely behind Alice B Toklas last time out. She has drawn better here and could dart up the inside as others fan wider.
Suggested bet: If you can get double figures about Palace Of Arvenia, each way all day.
Race 6
The boys’ equivalent of the Golden Slipper is the G2 Golden Horseshoe, also over 1400m. However, fillies can run here too; one, Secretary Bird, races here to avoid Royal Tiara who is owned by the same connections.
(6) Bisou Bisou has had one start for a very impressive victory at Turffontein. Now comes down to Durban, which is a much tighter track and requires a more electric turn of foot. Watching his debut, though, he looks as though he might have that push-button acceleration required.
(11) St Harry was bred in Australia. He’s a brother to Bowling Harry, who finished midfield in an Ipswich maiden last week, and a half-brother to recent Sandown winner Divine Thoughts and Sydney performer Divine Vicky. He flew home to win on debut in January and returns for his second preparation here. It’s a big step up in trip from 1100m but he looks capable of anything.
(1) Vibe Check finished well down the track on debut but has been good at every start since, including winning his last two starts. He’s relished 1400m and should get a soft run in transit. He should only appreciate further in time, too.
(2) The Cullinan, drawn alongside Vibe Check, should enjoy getting up to this sort of distance as well.
Suggested bet: Bisou Bisou each way.
Race 7
The feature, the Durban July, sees 18 of South Africa’s best horses going toe-to-toe over the Greyville 2200m under handicap conditions. A range of formlines make this a tough race to assess, particularly given the scratching of likely favourite Star Major.
(9) Viva’s Liberte looks very well weighted with only 53kg and has an ideal middle of the line draw. He meets Wish List 4kg better off for a three-length third in the G1 Cape Derby, while he also meets runner-up Note To Self on favourable weight terms as well. He finished fourth in the G1 Daily News 2000 last time out after leading but hopefully he is able to take a forward spot without assuming the front-running role here. Jockey Craig Zackey is attempting to go back-to-back after winning aboard The Real Prince last year, while his trainer Candice Bass became the first female to win the race with Marinaresco in 2017.
(7) Wish List, a three-year-old filly, is on a four-win streak currently: the G1 Paddock Stakes against the older mares, the G1 Cape Derby against the three-year-old boys, the G2 SA Fillies Guineas against her own age and sex and the G2 Woolavington 2000, again against the older mares. She’s tenacious and gritty and they’ll have to be good to get past her.
(10) Native Ruler was an easy winner stepping up to 2400m last time out. He came from last to finish sixth last year in a messily run race and, from a better draw, he should be able to put himself into the race earlier. He does have more weight though.
(20) Curious Girl became the first filly in over 100 years to win the G2 South African Derby at Turffontein. She will jump from gate three and is a good each way contender for Mike and Mathew de Kock. French jockey Mickaelle Michel, who was supposed to ride likely favourite Star Major, has got the consolation ride on Curious Girl in his absence.
Suggested bet: Want both Viva’s Liberte and Wish List on side. Perhaps play quinellas and trifectas with them and including Native Ruler and Curious Girl.
Race 8
The second of two Group 1 races is the Garden Province Stakes, for fillies and mares over 1400m.
(7) Quickstepgal is a three-year-old filly who won the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas at Kenilworth in December. She survived a protest against Mon Petit Cherie to land the G2 Tibouchina Stakes over the course and distance and a similar effort could see her inherit the tiara as the country’s best short-course distaffer.
(10) Double Grand Slam will start favourite as she aims to become just the second back-to-back winner in the last 30 years. She is South Africa’s top mare at shorter distances and she’ll be hard to beat.
(6) Mon Petit Cherie has form around both Quickstepgal and Double Grand Slam and will be ready to pounce should either or both of them underperform.
(3) Rainbow Lorikeet ran in the July this time last year. She drops back below a mile for the first time in over a year and will be coming on strong late.
Suggested bet: Quickstepgal to win.
Race 9
The G3 Post Merchants over 1200m is perhaps the most interesting race on the card. A lead-in to the G1 Mercury Sprint later this month, it sees two of the country’s best horses go up against some promising up-and-comers. It is the first of four races to be run under the Greyville lights.
(7) Dave The King is a three-time Group 1 winner at Greyville, all of them coming over 1600m and 1800m. Racing for Larry Nestadt, whose Australian portfolio includes Alalcance, Royal Patronage and New Endeavour, as well as golf legend Gary Player, Dave The King is aiming for the G1 Champions Cup over 1800m – a race he won in 2024 – later this month. He has only raced over shorter than 1400m once in the last two and a half years but, in a race that can often prove messy, he is the type who can get home through class alone.
(9) Buffalo Storm Cody is more of a natural sprinter and is in fact the highest-rated horse in South Africa. He’s a two-time Group 1 winner, including the Mercury Sprint at the track and trip. It’s his first run since April but he is good fresh and should be somewhere around the mark.
(4) Jet Force is another who drops in trip. He’s drawn to enjoy a good run in behind the speed and he is a place chance if he can jump away well.
(5) Tenango is a specialist sprinter who was beaten by Buffalo Storm Cody at his only attempt here at Greyville. He will be right in the mix.
Suggested bet: Dave The King looks great each way value.
Race 10
Among the most difficult races on the card is the Listed Premier Gateway International Handicap over 1600m.
(2) Mohave Prince has won four of his last five and he just seems to be improving all the time. He will likely be even better next year, maybe even a lightweight July hope, but for now he can add this to his record.
(12) Pay The Palace would go on top from a better draw with some good Cape Town form behind him but it’s hard to see how he will get a back to follow. It will take a peach of a ride from Richard Fourie to win.
(4) Talk To The Master has form around some good horses during his career, including Eight On Eighteen and One Stripe. He’s rarely far away.
(7) Imposing gets Chad Schofield up and can perform strongly again.
Suggested bet: Should be double figures the field, so Mohave Prince worth a bet if $11 or greater.
Race 11
Back to the poly we go and it is for a fillies and mares middle stakes – a race designated for those just off graded stakes level – over 1200m.
(4) Captain Selvie makes her debut on the poly track. A winner of four of her 10 starts, she has a galloping style that suggests she should enjoy the surface and she should be able to jump and either lead or sit just off.
(5) Lock And Key won her second race from five attempts on the poly last time out. With the apprentice engaged, expect her to push towards the lead and it will be a matter of how long she can hold on for.
(2) Serengetti Sun has only had six starts and makes her debut on the poly. The surface first time will be interesting given the amount of speed she’s shown and Keagan de Melo looks the right type to get the best out of her.
(7) Warm Reception gets Chad Schofield abroad for the first time. She’s another with plenty of speed but she might actually be better if she can harness that pace here.
Suggested bet: Avoid.
Race 12
The final contest – the human-led 13th race aside – is another Class 4 handicap, this one for the fillies and mares. This is perhaps the most open race of the night.
(6) Clair De Lune comes to Durban with decent Cape Town form behind her. That form should see her perform well here but she is not a frequent winner with only one victory from 14 starts. Still, she should track the speed and prove hard to beat.
(2) Scarlet Starlet has only two starts, winning from the front on debut at Scottsville in January before finishing off late after a slow start on this surface last time out. If Chad Schofield can get her out better with the return to 1200m, she’s capable.
(3) Siberian Winter represents former champion jockey Michael Roberts, who is now a trainer. She won on the poly over 1400m last time out but the drop to 1200m may not be in her favour. Still, winning form is good form.
(7) Sign Of Fate also fits that bill and deserves respect.
Suggested bet: Save your powder for another day.
