Summary of Best Bets:
Race 6 (Two bet) – (3) Livalittle + (6) Automne Tree
Best Bet: Race 7 (14) Lockyer e/w
Turf Talk:
- Rail 1m
- Should be a good surface and all get their chance.
- Jocks don’t seem to ride as tight here so they will take up half the track in the straight I assume. Not my favourite track to bet on.
Stats that matter:
- Ryan Maloney has 11 wins from last 50 rides. ROI -0.9%
- Matt Hoysted has 11 wins from his last 50 starters and a small profit on ROI +5.5%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
If prices allow I can play two horses here, (6) Misato and (2) Bull Rayner.
Have loved what (6) Misato has done so far. Took a while to wind up on debut but was very good through the line in a decent race. Last start at the GC, her and the runner up who is handy put a huge gap in the rest of them. Good stable and she is on the way up. The 2kg claim is a bonus.
(2) Bull Rayner was good in trials but has just had a flat spot around Doomben at his two runs. Late splits are good and the key may be Eagle Farm and being able to balance up and let down late. If he doesn’t win here I am sure they will tinker with some head gear as he does have ability.
(3) Vanzadee comes out of Listed races and has been freshened. You simply watch the market with Birchley 2yr olds and follow what happens.
Selections:
(6) Misato
(2) Bull Rayner
(3) Vanzadee
(4) Bold Envoy
(1) High Authority
Suggested Bet: Win (6) Misato or Quinella with (2) Bull Rayner.
Race 2:
I’m not sure what to make of (2) Hovland. He can take a lot of riding but on his day he has good ability. A lot of racing on wet tracks and maybe the dry is what he is after. Could race very well here but probably want to see some money for him.
(7) Diamond Show was a little flattered with the margin last start as the winner/fave was held up. In saying that, it was still a very solid effort and 2nd best L200m of the race. Was good the start before and comes here 4th up and rock hard fit.
(9) Krumac, (1) Felix The Scat, (5) Think Like Paddy and (12) Empress Of Japan probably the place chances worth considering in trifecta’s.
Selections:
(7) Diamond Show
(2) Hovland
(1) Felix The Scat
(9) Krumac
Suggested Bet: (7) Diamond Show e/w
Race 3:
Don’t like this race much.
(5) Larado has a good record and lightly raced. May be a touch overrated going off his starting prices, but does have upside. Gate not ideal but has a good 2nd up record and a leading chance.
(7) Bonfire Spark is a genuine 1000m horse and usually consistent. Like the inside gate and can map not too far off the leaders here. Will look the winner at some stage.
(8) Diamantina Rose has been putting a gap in them out on the bush over 800m. No idea how to line that form up here in town.
(9) Mercian was ok fresh after being wide and then winner 2nd up. Let up since then (not sure why) but from the inside gate he can run a race.
Selections:
(5) Larado
(7) Bonfire Spark
(9) Mercian
(2) Acappella Sun
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
The owners of (2) Get Ready Lass would think it’s getting a piss take with barriers by now. Has drawn 14/15, 12/12, 9/9 and 11/12 her last four runs and gets 10/12 here. She is high quality and just needs a bit of luck early.
(6) Naturally Lit has a good record (8:3:2:0). Also beat a handful of these last start. Wide gate not a help but he’s hard to ignore in this form. (10) Racketeer meets Naturally Lit 1.5kg better off and map wise looks better suited. In an astute stable and he should be right in the finish here 4th up.
New stable for (1) Esha who joins Gollan. Really liked the recent trial and will be much better placed in QLD. The 60kg for a little filly is a query.
(3) Forgotten Spirit has ability but has the stable change and hard to improve them off Gollan.
(5) Manpower was a dominant winner over the Grafton carnival in an easier race but can be competitive again even though it’s a step up.
Selections:
(10) Racketeer
(6) Naturally Lit
(2) Get Ready Lass
(1) Esha
Suggested Bet: No
Race 5:
No doubt (4) Chillaxing is an improving stayer with just 15 runs. I have a heap of trouble working out when the ‘good runs’ are coming, but his best can win this.
(5) Lennox went up big odds and was smashed in the betting last start. Just beaten and a great effort. Maps well, ready to peak 4th up and Thompson on. Gets his chance.
(6) Marenaro has been very consistent and has had some of the best late sectionals every run this preparation. Will get back but be strong again late.
(7) Captain Maverick is consistent but with only 2 wins from 28, he’s more a place chance here.
A Stack of other place chances in an open race.
Selections:
(5) Lennox
(4) Chillaxing
(6) Marenaro
(7) Captain Maverick
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
(3) Livalittle is a beauty and they haven’t reached the ceiling with her yet. Won three on the trot to finish last prep over 1800-2000m. First up was outstanding over 1200m and just 54.5kg is awesome here. Will be better next time out but is good enough to win.
(6) Automne Tree is a good one on the rise. Has won his last two on the trot and this is the perfect next step. Maps wherever they want, Maloney stays on after a perfect ride last start and well placed by Waller.
(1) Call Da Vinci is very consistent even though he has only won 2 of 15. Is tactically versatile and should map well but seems under the odds for me.
Selections:
(3) Livalittle
(6) Automne Tree
(1) Call Da Vinci
(5) Larrikin Rogue
Suggested Bet: Split bets (3) Livalittle and (6) Automne Tree
Race 7:
(2) Montpellier is ex-overseas and has been decent in Sydney since moving. In a good yard, blinkers first time and 2kg claim for an in form apprentice.
(1) Call Da Vinci is very consistent even though he has only won 2 of 15. Is tactically versatile and should map well.
(4) Moonan Quartz is 3/3 this prep and has won 4 of 7. Assuming they are deciding if they run on the quick backup or not. Maps well and big chance if they run.
(10) Smexy has a bit of class and they have taken the blinkers off here. She doesn’t have the best record at this track is the only query.
(14) Lockyer is a new horse this prep after being gelded. Gate was costly last start but was best L200m of the race. Draws much better this time and Thompson to ride. Can run very well.
A stack of chances for exotics.
Selections:
(14) Lockyer
(2) Montpellier
(10) Smexy
(15) Ave Cantare
Suggested Bet: (14) Lockyer e/w
Race 8:
Well (1) Anemacore isa beauty even though he probably hasn’t reached the level I thought. He is clearly the best horse in this race (hence the weight). Even with the 60kg you think he should win. My little concern is the tempo and the fact he is likely to get a long way back from the gate.
(3) Restonica is airborne. Only had the one run at 1400m but was a winner. Is a tough on speed type who will give a sight. Tempo should suit and 2kg claim is a help.
(5) Lisztomania was a good winner fresh and then no luck at all in the Ramornie. Can sit closer from the gate and has a turn of foot when things work out in the run.
(11) Sir Artie is a good one and was handy in a bm78 in Syd. Drops 7kg, gets Thompson on top and comes here 3rd up rock hard fit.
Selections:
(1).Anemacore
(3) Restonica
(11) Sir Artie
(5) Lisztomania
Suggested Bets: No
Race 9:
Two leading hopes trialled each other leading into this. (16) Without Parallel was good in the trial and has just 52.5kg. More importantly she gets Thompson riding. She has won 4 of 10 and just needs a good ride early from the gate. (1) Hell was the winner of the trial and he went super. I am certain they will take a sit here and try to make him a stalker this prep instead of sending him out like a motorbike. The only issue is the big weight.
Where there is smoke there is fire and there has been good support for (6) Caspernova the last couple of runs. Both have been solid and the speed on should suit him here.
(5) Bossed Up has been good recently but the horror gate has me concerned unless track is playing down the outside. Similar story for (4) Slippin’ Jimmy.
(3) Give Giggles comes out of better races but is a mare with a big weight against the boys.
Selections:
(1). Hell
(16) Without Parallel
(6) Caspernova
(4) Slippin’ Jimmy
Suggested Bets: Quinella 1,6,16
