Summary of Best Bets:
Race 1 #3 Thorncaster – Good debut and can be a sharp improver.
Race 4 #10 Liberty Park – No luck last start and double figures looks generous e/w.
Race 6 #11 Now Is The Hour – Not taking odds on, want $2.40+ to bet.
Roughie: Race 8 #16 Another Cashie – Better than the $61 says. Blinkers go on and just needs luck from a bad gate.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 1m
- Weather is good in the south east.
- Should be good to a firm track and that may help those in the first half late in the day but let’s take a wait and see approach.
Stats that matter:
- Ben Thompson is starting to get on the right horses and had a field day at the midweeks where he rode 5 of the first 6 winners.
- Matt Dunn has 11 winners from his last 50 but still a ROI -25%. Has a couple of outside chances here.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Not sure how strong the race was but loved the way (1) Silken Salute went through the line and won on debut. Carries 59kg but will only be better at 1400m and can win again.
(2) Brumal was green but still too good on debut. On speed there and expect the same here. He could be much improved here and one of the main chances.
(3) The Thorncaster was well beaten on debut but was the best L200m of the race and really good through line. In Maher camp and expect him to be a handy one if they have brought him north carnival time.
(7) Mamoka is a beautiful looking big filly who has trialled excellent. Hard to win on debut but will give a sight.
Selections:
(3) The Thorncaster
(7) Mamoka
(2) Brumal
(1) Silken Salute
Suggested Bet: win (3) Thorncaster
Race 2:
I love (6) Balance The Books and she has a stack of class and upside. Gate 10 is a bit of an evener here. Feel they probably have to take medicine, go back and hope she is too good. Trial was good and ready to go with any luck in running.
Like what I see in (9) Manakau. Well bred Godolphin horse and has a turn of foot. Takes the claim and from the gate should land in front of the fave.
(8) Bonfire Spark is flying but the wide gate doesn’t excite me.
(2) Surprise Honey next best.
Selections:
(9) Manakau
(6) Balance The Books
(8) Bonfire Spark
(2) Surprise Honey
Suggested Bet: Quinella 6,9
Race 3:
Plenty of these in good form.
(6) Jenni Moreese was a non winner all her career until now. Has won three on the trot and never looked like being beaten in them. 1.8L, 1.8L and 4.2L victories. Loves this track (9:2:4:2) and why can’t she win again?
(1) Mr Buster has been a new horse in the last two Qld preps. Won three on the trot last prep and won fresh this prep over 1600m. Big weights don’t worry him and 1800m on this track where he is unbeaten is perfect.
(5) Absolute Sunshine got the cash for us as a $8 best bet but the jockey was the difference late there. Little harder here but this track and trip are ideal and he is in form.
(2) Brindivan had won 2 of 3 but a little weak late last start. Can always forgive one run and watch the market.
(4) Make A Call was 2nd to Absolute Sunshine last start and drops 7kg into this, some hope.
Selections:
(1).Mr Buster
(6) Jenni Moreese
(4) Make A Call
(2) Brindivan
Suggested Bet: Trifecta 1 // 5,6 // 2,4,5,6
Race 4:
The toppy (1) Akkadian Emperor is a walking ATM for the owners. Model of consistency and from the gate can get the run of the race. Always hard to win with these big weights over staying trips but will give a sight.
(6) Mr O’Reilly was a winner last start in a bm70. This is a step up but drops 2.5kg off the win. Has form around the toppy and not much between them.
If there was any rain around, I’d be all over (10) Liberty Park. The run two back was good and then no luck at all last start. Good jock, light weight and can win even if it’s dry.
(2) El Jasor hard to catch but was good last time out. (12) Prochester has ability and gets blinkers on.
Selections:
(10) Liberty Park
(6) Mr O’Reilly
(1) Akkadian Emperor
(2) El Jasor
(12) Prochester
Suggested Bet: e/w (10) Liberty Park
Race 5:
Very evenly matched and not much would surprise here.
Feel (5) Ready For The Trip has needed racing and was good last tart. Ready to show best now and even though 1800m might be better, can run well over the mile.
(6) Moon Sweeper is underrated and consistent. Good 2nd up and ready to peak now. Love the fact Thompson sticks and can be saved f the last shot at them.
(10) Aritiri has been all around the money all prep. Will be up on speed, but more for exotics.
Selections:
(6) Moon Sweeper
(5) Ready For The Trip
(10) Aritiri
(2) Canberra Legend
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (6) Moon Sweeper
Race 6:
A lot of these out of form or have questions over them.
Hard to knock (10) Bundella who has won three on the trot and in Gollan yard. Has a great record at the track (4:2:1:0) and should map well again. This is harder and apprentice on again but hard to beat.
Stablemate (11) Now Is The Hour is a better horse in my opinion and has a good senior on. Won a trial, will push forward and be hard to run down for sure.
(14) Cosmo Centaurus warmed up late over the 1000m fresh and will be better for the hit out. Also better at 1200m and will be one of the strongest late. Genuine winning hope.
Big fan of (6) Sunset Dreaming and feel she is probably the class runner. Trial was just fair and may need the run, although a win would not suroprise.
Selections:
(11) Now Is The Hour
(6) Sunset Dreaming
(14) Cosmo Centaurus
(4) Pocket Full
Suggested Bet: Win (11) Now Is The Hour If $2.40, not taking odds on
Race 7:
Don’t like this race at all.
(8) Last Command has been in career best form and just keeps running well. Just lipped out by a good one last start and was a strong winner before that. Rather him at a mile but a chance still.
(10) True To Form is no star but both runs this prep have been good and peaks 3rd up. Can use the gate and map well in this.
Gollan has got the best out of (13) Ten Deep with apprentices on. Kind of thought you’d put your best on here but only has to hold form and get a decent steer to be a chance. Should have won last start after being held up.
Selections:
(8) Last Command
(10) True To Form
(13) Ten Deep
Suggested Bet: No
Race 8:
Not sure what we do with (1) State Visit. Most runs have been in Group 1’s that none of these would even get warm. First up run at Listed level was just ok, given a month between runs and should improve. Just that query if he’s come back as a colt and is as good?
(6) Spanish Treasure is consistent, in the Gollan yard and will be much better for the fresh run. Meets The Wheelbarrow 3kg better and Youre Not The King 7kg better at the weights. Very hard to beat with the box seat.
(2) Fabulantes is airborne. Has won three in a row and best L400m and 200m of his last four runs. Can’t go any better. Three starts here for no return might be deceiving as a couple were good races.
Love (7) The Wheelbarrow and he won over the unsuitable 1200m trip last start. Had fitness on his side there though. Always strong late, still has upside but has the outside gate and assuming they go all the way back.
(13) Youre Not The King is a beauty. Lightly raced and no idea where the ceiling is. Good gate and Jones are huge here.
(8) Brave Monarch was excellent last prep winning three in a row. Was good fresh and has drawn better than a lot of the chances. Always good late and big hope here.
(16) Another Cashie opening $91 was crazy. He wasn’t far off Brave Monarch at the end of last prep. Fresh run looked plain but the sectionals were ok and he needed the run. Gate is not good but if he reacts to the blinkers positively, he could shock a lot of people here. (18) Shortcut the stablemate beat him home at the coast but might want some rain. Into $23 race morning. Steady money since Thursday.
(4) Call Da Vinci has class and will be lengths better from the fresh run.
Race of the day this one. Nothing between 7 or 8 of them.
Selections:
(16) Another Cashie
(6) Spanish Treasure
(8) Brave Monarch
(2) Fabulantes
(13) Youre Not The King
(1) State Visit
Suggested Bets: (16) Another Casie e/w.
Race 9:
Fair race to finish a good days racing. Good luck if alive in the quaddie.
Looking for the genuine 1000m horse and it might be (1) Uncommon James even though he has 60.5kg. Been off the scene a long time is the query. Has won two trials so watch the market.
(2) Hidden Wealth I love at this trip but gate 15 is a doozy. Not sure where they land and could be four wide?
I have zero luck catching (6) Golden Boom but the 1000m suits him and draws better than a lot of the main chances. Good record on the track too (5:2:1:1)
A stack of other chances but feel the market will be the biggest key to this race.
Selections:
(1).Uncommon James
(2) Hidden Wealth
(6) Golden Boom
(4) Payline
(5) Abounding
Suggested Bets: No
