Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 1 (5) Savagery Vibe
Best Bet: Race 2 (8) Daggers
Best Bet: Race 5 (10) Affari
Best Bet: Race 6 (6) About To Explode
Turf Talk
- Rail 3m
- The forecast is for 0-15mm on raceday.
- That doesn’t really help anyone but this track holds water well and might not make a hell of a difference if we get 5-6mm.
Stats that matter
- Angela Jones has 10 winners from her last 50 rides and ROI +51%
- Ben Thompson even better at 13 from his last 50 rides with ROI +98%
Race by race overview
Race 1
I was a bit against (5) Savagery Vibe early in the prep but she has been very good. Won or placed in all three runs on this track. Harley suits and this looks to set up well for her.
This is harder but (10) Blakemore Avenue has won three in a row and deserves a crack. Won only start on this track and has won five of 12 overall.
Claim helps (1) Bengal Diamond but may want further. If they go hard she can be strong late.
(3) Blue Spinel has found some decent form and (8) Cinque Terre can be forgiven one bad run.
Selections:
(5) Savagery Vibe
(10) Blakemore Avenue
(1) Bengal Diamond
(8) Cinque Terre
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Savagery Vibe
Race 2
Theme of the day here: competitive.
(3) Bundella made it a hat-trick of wins last time out and Gollan has him flying. Takes the 3kg claim again to carry 58kg. Gate 1 is a blessing. Can either try to lead or hold them out and make the others work. Hard to beat again.
(8) Daggers was beaten fair and square at first start for Gollan but the run had merit over 1000m. Fitter now and up in trip is ideal. Add a good gate and Berry and you might just have a bet.
(5) Let’sfacethemusic is 2 from 2 for the new stable and both 3L wins. Easier than this but have to respect off dominant wins.
Would not be surprised in the least to see (11) Winsome Star run a race at odds here. Has a good turn of foot even though he doesn’t win often.
Selections:
(8) Daggers
(11) Winsome Star
(5) Let’sfacethemusic
(3) Bundella
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
I have had zero luck with (11) Arisphere but she has again trialled well, gets in with a light weight and has won fresh.
(7) Acres Away has found form and Berry jumping on is a huge plus. Likes the track and trip and has some hope.
(12) Moulin Miss is Gollan/Jones and just 53.5kg. Was a dominant winner fresh but in a BM68. She is the one they have to beat off that win but might start very short here.
Simply watch the market with (1) Pre Eminence. Stable is deadly when they bet.
Selections:
(12) Moulin Miss
(11) Arisphere
(7) Acres Away
(1) Pre Eminence
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
Very competitive race and the best ride will go a long way.
Everything tells me (1) Perfect Play will be better for this run, but he looks well suited after the claim and I did really like the trial before this.
(2) Lupine has won three on the trot and is in career-best form. Takes the 2kg claim but might have to take medicine early from the wide draw.
(6) Éclair Awesome has won two of her last three also but gets the equicast first time. Last start’s win was about as good as she has gone. Up 5.5kg is an issue.
(5) Diamond Epic is a beauty. She won three of four to finish last prep and loves this track. Won a trial leading into this and goes well fresh. Gate 16 means she goes back.
(8) Extraordinaire, (9) Ramp It Up and (13) Sir Winnie could win and not surprise.
Selections:
(1) Perfect Play
(5) Diamond Epic
(2) Lupine
(9) Ramp It Up
Suggested Bet: Small win bets (1) Perfect Play $34 and (5) Diamond Epic $23
Race 5
Love what I have seen with (10) Affari for Waller. This looks like it has been a plan and it is panning out well. Three wide no cover on debut and was one of the best through the line. Let up and then won the trial leading into this. Reckon she is better than average.
Also loved what (6) The Autumn Affair did winning on debut and then running an unlucky fourth in the QTIS Jewel. This is just as hard but she is an underrated type.
(4) Remembrall is a market watch. Birchley is amazing with youngsters and there was no official trial this time in.
The topweight (1) Esperanza has been around the money every start. Will get back but has a good turn of foot and the big track suits.
Selections:
(10) Affari
(6) The Autumn Affair
(1) Esperanza
(4) Remembrall
Suggested Bet: Win (10) Affari
Race 6
Hard to line these up.
(8) Ouroboros was good fresh in an easier race. Was a dominant winner second-up last start and should be able to sit outside the leader here.
(6) About To Explode is very consistent and loves the track (8:4:2:0). Has had the task against him the last couple with no tempo and the efforts have been great. Drops 6kg off the last run, Thompson rides and he will be hard to hold out late.
(4) Restonica beat About To Explode last start but had favours on speed and gets a bad gate this time.
(3) Cloudland is out of form but this is easier, so watch the market. (1) Hatchet had an amazing prep and is more than good enough to win this. Just concerned at the amount of time he has been in work.
Selections:
(6) About To Explode
(8) Ouroboros
(1) Hatchet
(4) Restonica
Suggested Bet: Win bet (6) About To Explode
Race 7
Luck will play a big part in this, a very even race.
Ben Thompson has jumped ship from (4) Impact Zone after winning and rides (6) Military Tycoon. Might be a steer in that. Maher’s horse has had four runs back in good races and should be suited here.
I’m an unashamed fan of (8) Sylph. Nearly the best maiden in the land. The gate is not ideal but she is a very smart one with a turn of foot. The trial was okay and if they go hard, she can get over them late.
(5) Akaysha was good in handy races last prep. The fresh run was an absolute horror show and you have to be forgiving. Inside gate and could be a sharp improver.
(7) Angel Ladder has won two on the trot and last start was impressive. On the way up for Maher so it’s hard to find a knock.
The freshen-up and back to 1000m will help (1) Earn To Burn. Winner of four from 11 and this is the right trip for him.
Selections:
(8) Sylph
(5) Akaysha
(6) Military Tycoon
(4) Impact Zone
Suggested Bet: Win bets (8) Sylph and (5) Akaysha
Race 8
Well (1) Spicy Lu is the highest rated and obviously in best at the weights. She has travelled well on the corner but been a bit weak in races this prep. I like the 2000m run back to a mile and the good gate to help. Rock-hard fit now and no excuses.
(2) Smexy was way too good last start but I didn’t love that field. The mile is a query, but you can make a case to say it is what she is after. Will know more after this though.
(4) Nightline has good ability and is on an Oaks path. Has trialled well and could surprise a few. Would think she may need the run though.
Loved the second and third-up runs of (5) Burn The Sky. Happy to forgive the last start over 2000m and this looks suitable. Thompson is a good booking.
Selections:
(5) Burn The Sky
(1) Spicy Lu
(2) Smexy
(4) Nightline
(6) Samarelle
Suggested Bet: Each-way (5) Burn The Sky
Race 9
What a great race to finish the day.
Absolute class runner is (1) Antino. He was second in a Group 1 Turnbull to Sir Delius last prep, and you can’t beat that form. Genuine Group 1 horse who would smack these on his day. Pushed to win a recent trial and form before that was plain. Weight is not an issue, form is the query.
(3) Welwal can mix form but is very good on his day. Fourth in the Listed National Sprint in Canberra two back and then a nice winner of the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude. A repeat of that effort just about wins this, but he is a better horse if rain was to fall. Hasn’t won on a good track yet.
(4) Miss Joelene beat a heap of these last start. She does have a lethal fresh record and is okay second-up, but not usually as effective. You just have to respect her every time she goes around.
(10) Cote Atlantique was enormous in the same race and came right down the middle of the track. Best last 600m, 400m and 200m of the race and looks to get a better run in transit here.
(8) Margot’s Deel was very good there too. Might have needed the run and can be better late this time.
Selections:
(10) Cote Atlantique
(3) Welwal
(1) Antino
(4) Miss Joelene
(8) Margot’s Deel
Suggested Bet: Something each-way (10) Cote Atlantique
