Race 1: (2YO SW+P 1100m)
Tempo: Average
The Stephen Marsh-trained (5) FATAL AFFAIR has been the standout 2YO in each of her two trials, by Home Affairs, she ticks all the boxes, professional with a great action and showed the ability to take a sit and take the gap in one trial as well as leading up and quickening as she did winning her latest trial at Avondale on a H10. Handles wet and dry and running up to her trial form she will take a power of beating. Debut winner (1) DEE OYSTER ran time, lacks early speed to go with the favourite. Obvious threat if the filly folds up. (3) SHE’S NO SAINT was impressive on a heavy track in her lead up trial into this event, competitive without winning in her first prep, has potential to improve further and soft draw a bonus, prefer on a heavy track.
Suggested Bet: FATAL AFFAIR (Best)
Race 2: (OPEN 2100m)
Tempo: Average
Recent form of (1) PACIFICO is outstanding and clearly the best placed horse in the country this weekend. Strong on-speed winner at Te Aroha dictating terms then a victim of pilot error when dropping anchor mid-race and caught napping in the Hawkes Bay Cup. His last start win in a fast race was full of merit, stalking the speed he was exposed to chase a long way out and kept finding to the line. That’s the premium form line for this event and Opie Bosson can be aggressive with the topweight and back the horse’s fitness in. Forecast showers keep the track in soft range. (3) KHAN HUNTER racing well, fought back when headed after getting a soft lead in a slow race at Pukekohe. Last start given no winning chance with bad luck and circumstances against in the Rotorua Cup. Coming in on off two soft runs is the negative. (6) BOSCH may keep the speed honest in the small field.
Suggested Bet: PACIFICO
Race 7: (R75 1400m)
Tempo: Average
In a race lacking early speed and with her key rivals back in the field (4) BELLARISTA can be positive and improve further on her first-up placing behind subsequent winner GRINGZER MOON where the front pairing had an easy time and dominated the race, she was a noted betting drifter on the day and withdrew from the speed battle before working home ok from midfield. What Matt Cartwright does in the first 200m is going to be the key. Each-way claims.
Suggested bet: Bellarista
Race 8: (R65 1600m)
Tempo: Average
Two-bet play. (12) PURE BARS receives a good set-up here dropping back from a fast 2100m at Rotorua to the 1600m at Ellerlsie as likely leader with promising South Island jockey Donovan Cooper in the saddle. The outside draw is an advantage with the horse having the necessary gate speed to cross and take up the running, running them along at a genuine tempo he should take running down and represents value in the market. Blinkers off, ear covers on. (4) ORSON STONE is ready to win, no intent from the wide draw last start and ran home in good closing splits, unlucky not to win. On the 7-day back-up to make amends and only needs a even speed to be in the finish once more.
Suggested Bets: PURE BARS (Value) & ORSON STONE
