Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 4 Backing both No.13 Actuality and No.14 Moor Mumm
Best roughie: Race 10 No.4 Land Legend
Turf Talk
- Rail goes back to the True after being out 6m at the last meeting, where there was a huge advantage to be on speed.
- Track has come up a Soft 7 on race morning with a few more showers moving through. Suspect the inside might chop up and horses get away from the fence as the meeting goes on.
- As is well known, Flemington is a beautiful spacious circuit. Last meeting was an aberration, normally all horses get their chance.
- Southerly winds will again favour those horses on speed.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(3) Gentle Steel is the leader and there doesn’t look to be much other speed.
(5) She’s An Artist gets the near-side blinker on after wanting to lay in quite badly last start, something she has done throughout her career. She wanted to lay in at Caulfield the start prior, but Ethan Brown switched whip hands and straightened her up, while Jamie Melham kept the whip in the right hand last start. Assuming they all come to the inside here being race one and given the recent pattern, the inside draw may be a blessing as she will have the rail to guide her. The weight drop helps as she’s no monster. The price looks poison.
Gentle Steel is airborne. She got a very soft time of it at Caulfield last start but that was offset by being in inferior ground. If they leave her alone out front she will prove hard to run down.
The toppy, (1) Pop Award, didn’t have much luck first-up at Cranbourne, getting back off a moderate tempo. She knocked off Verdoux over 1100m last campaign, form that ties in with She’s An Artist, before beating Arkansaw Kid in the Regal Roller. She’s got her share of weight but the claim for Luke Cartwright helps. Sting out of the ground only helps. She seems a big price for the class horse.
Selections:
(1) Pop Award
(3) Gentle Steel
(5) She’s An Artist
(6) Eagle Express
Suggested Bet: She’s An Artist looks way too short. Can have something small on Pop Award and Gentle Steel.
Race 2
(13) Nostra Bella and (4) Lawborough look the main speed. (11) Exit has the blinkers going on and it wouldn’t surprise if she’s right on speed.
As open a race as you’ll see.
Reckon (2) Miewa can run a race fresh. He was stiff behind Ole Dancer first-up at 1200m last campaign and 1400m suits better here fresh. There’s a bit of intent with the blinkers going on having had three jump-outs leading in.
(10) Chowdown gets the blinkers on and provided he jumps cleanly should get a lovely run from gate two. Not convinced he beat a lot at Pakenham first-up but do think he has a good degree of talent. 1400m looks ideal.
Like the blinkers going on (11) Exit and don’t mind the drop back in trip as she laboured a touch late at the mile last start. Wasn’t far off Salty Pearl the start prior and with Jamie Melham in the saddle it wouldn’t surprise if she’s far more forward here.
Selections:
(2) Miewa
(10) Chowdown
(11) Exit
(9) Cafe Au Lait
Suggested Bet: Small spec Miewa/Chowdown at odds.
Race 3
(1) Gin Twist is the starting point. She has to carry the 2kg penalty but she deserves it. Her win last start over 1000m was outstanding, running time and looking strong through the line. Gate one is fine down the straight as the two-year-olds always tend to come to the inside rail. 1200m is some concern but they were trying to get her into a Golden Slipper. The query is Willie Pike. He’s a terrific jockey but he’s not in my top ten hoops when backing a front-runner. I just hope the Wizard lets her roll.
Think (7) Firm’n’high is over the odds at her debut. She has jumped out very well twice this campaign. She has the speed to come across from gate nine and sit on speed, and from there she should give a good sight.
(4) Jadzia looks suited out to 1200m and she’s a filly that was highly touted for a Blue Diamond ahead of a little setback. Very good run behind Medicinal down the straight on debut which should prove a reasonable form race and she’s suited out to 1100m.
(5) Satono Glow was very good on debut at Warwick Farm. Has a lethal turn of foot and the market support suggested she had good ability.
Selections:
(7) Firm’n’high
(1) Gin Twist
(4) Jadzia
(5) Satono Glow
Suggested Bet: Something tiny 1×3 Firm’n’high.
Read: Dean Watling’s Preview of Group 1 racing in Sydney
Race 4
Even race.
(14) Moor Mumm is well credentialed down the straight. She pushed Niance to a narrow margin down the straight in 2024 and has a very good record on this course. Loved her first-up run at Canterbury where she ripped home the best last 600m split of the meeting to be narrowly beaten. That was her first run for Matty Dale and having not trialled prior she should only improve off that. Canterbury is not her track, the Flemington straight course is, and any sting out of the ground will only assist. Love the wide draw, the 52kg after the claim, and think she’s a huge price at $17.
(13) Actuality has trialled up nicely for her return. She does have a tendency to over-race which is a knock but from gate five she should get a bunny to follow in (7) Castellar, who should roll along at a reasonable clip down towards the inside. She has the talent to win this and at double figures has to be on side.
Selections:
(14) Moor Mumm
(13) Actuality
(4) Nimbustwothousand
(6) Stoli Bolli
Suggested Bet: Keen, backing Moor Mumm and Actuality.
Race 5
Scratchings have taken out my second and third picks and weakened the race.
(14) Zakouma is airborne this campaign and he’s a perfect ride for Willie Pike, who is the master of timing runs from the tail. Strong speed, Flemington and 2000m all suit. He’s on the up, and down in weight.
(15) Pantile Warrior was five weeks between runs when second to Zakouma last start. Gets a 3.5kg weight swing and can strip fitter.
Selections:
(14) Zakouma
(15) Pantile Warrior
(11) Wudddzz
(12) Jareth
Suggested Bet: Better betting races on the card.
Race 6
Good quality three-year-old race.
(10) Educated is a quality mover and she has a serious set of gears. Did plenty of work in a fast-run race this track and trip last time out when winning well. Trialled brilliantly between runs. Think she has the talent to win a race like this.
Assuming the outside lanes are in play down the straight then (5) My Gladiola is right in the mix. Terrific fresh in the Lightning and then not sure she was comfortable between horses in the Newmarket. She was also in the wrong part of the track. Has the turn of foot to win this.
(2) Legacy Bound was good first-up track and trip. He looks to have improved this campaign and wasn’t far off My Gladiola in the spring.
Reckon (8) Blue Hotel can run a race at odds. Trialled nicely.
Selections:
(10) Educated
(5) My Gladiola
(2) Legacy Bound
(8) Blue Hotel
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch.
Race 7
Melbourne Cup Golden Ticket on the line here.
Speed is interesting. Think third-up and stepping in trip now, they will roll forward with (12) Litzdeel from the outside alley, which should see a few push up underneath to make her work. (13) Bright Legend may roll across drawn one to her inside. (2) Paradise Storm and (3) Whisky On The Hill should be right there.
Litzdeel belted them over 2800m during Cup week and her run in the Australian Cup Prelude when charging home against the bias was outstanding. That was a fast-run race that should bring her right on. Little knock is the wide draw given they basically jump into a sharp bend, but suspect being grand final day for the campaign they roll forward with the light weight. The horse they all have to beat.
(3) Whisky On The Hill will relish any sting out of the ground and is drawn to do no work. Equicast going on is some little concern, but back the stable in.
(2) Paradise Storm made an absolute mess of them in the Auckland Cup and was pretty good at this track and trip the start prior. Fit and in form.
Selections:
(12) Litzdeel
(2) Paradise Storm
(3) Whisky On The Hill
(6) Desert Hero
Suggested Bet: Backing Litzdeel
Limited chances so playing exotics as well – Trifecta: 12 / 2,3,12 / 2,3,5,6,12
Race 8
This will be a truly run Australian Cup. Obviously (8) Pride Of Jenni will lead but (4) Just Fine and (12) Philia will also be up there on speed. You want to be backing a horse that can sustain a fast-run 2000m race.
Good edition of the race.
The last time Pride Of Jenni won at 2000m was her amazing Queen Elizabeth romp back in 2024. She has failed in three runs at the trip since, including in this race last year when she probably went too slow in the early stages.
Gee, (7) Mark Twain seems a big price. He had his first start for the Phillip Stokes stable in the Blamey last time out and he was outstanding from the tail, beaten by a narrowing 2.85 lengths by Birdman. Won the Roy Higgins this day last year but he certainly looks sharper this year. Drawn ideally to get a soft smother. Huge odds at $61.
Don’t think the fast tempo will bother (5) Birdman. He won a fast-run 2000m Kingston Town third up last campaign. He is totally airborne. Won the Peter Young hard held and only looks further suited to 2000m now. Draws ideally too, and Ben Melham is building a good association with the horse.
(2) Light Infantry Man relished a strong tempo to win this race last year. That win also came third-up, which is the same pattern he follows this time around. He was closest to the inside at Caulfield last time out which wasn’t where you wanted to be and to his credit he fought on well.
The kitten, (1) Tom Kitten, is flying for the Freedman stable. Brilliant ride from Willo to jam him up near the speed on a biased track to win the All-Star Mile last start. Has only been to 2000m once since his three-year-old days, and that was running third to Via Sistina in the Queen Elizabeth. He was a 2000m Spring Champion winner as a three-year-old. The All-Star Mile was fast-run which should have him primed for 2000m third-up. Sticky gate may see him spot them a big start but he will be charging late.
The race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(5) Birdman
(2) Light Infantry Man
(7) Mark Twain
(1) Tom Kitten
Suggested Bet: Cracking race. Plenty of angles. Small plays on Light Infantry Man at $19 and Mark Twain at $61 will be my biggest results on the race. Also backing Birdman again — been with him all preparation and think he deserves favouritism.
Race 9
Good speed, as you’d expect with a 1000m scamper.
Like (3) Midwest. His straight-track form is very good and loved his run this track and trip when narrowly beaten by Bridal Waltz, who has since sat deep and been beaten under a length in the Galaxy. Like that he draws away from (2) Way To The Stars, who kicked up underneath him in the W.J. Adams going back two starts. He only needs to hold his rating from last start to prove the horse to beat and drops 3.5kg.
Not convinced 1000m is his go at all, but (14) Recon is a real talent and can’t let him go around without something on. Trialled nicely. Strong tempo should suit.
(8) Celerity has a tricky gate in one. Racing well. Jamie Melham is two from two on her but do think she’s better suited to 1100m and is short enough as favourite.
Selections:
(3) Midwest
(14) Recon
(2) Way To The Stars
Suggested Bet: Keen Midwest, having something smaller on Recon.
Race 10
If he’s recovered from his barbequing in the Melbourne Cup then (4) Land Legend looks over the odds. Awesome trial at Cranbourne. Best run of the prep last time in was first-up at 1400m when arguably should’ve won. Drawn out but will likely drift off speed anyway and there looks a good tempo up front. Worth a bet each-way at a big price.
Prefer (1) Café Millenium at 1400m than 1600m but he’s down in grade and will have no issue with the 61kg. Drawn to need a bit of luck at a crucial stage.
(3) Arran Bay is fit, racing well and comes off posting a reasonable rating in the C.S. Hayes Stakes in Adelaide last time. Generally goes well here at Flemington.
Stacks of other chances, including (19) Al Duca.
Selections:
(4) Land Legend
(3) Arran Bay
(1) Café Millenium
(19) Al Duca
Suggested Bet: Backing Land Legend each-way at 40/1
