Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 4 No.2 Café Millennium
Next Best: Race 10 Backing both No.1 Augustus, No.4 Immediacy
Best Value: Race 8 Backing both No.6 Too Darn Discreet, No.9 Until Valhalla
Turf Talk
- Rail goes out 6m having been out 2m for Lightning Day.
- Southeasterly winds should give those on speed a little edge once they start the sweeping home bend.
- Flemington generally plays very fairly. Just need to keep an eye on the straight track pattern early, as that will be key. Winners down the inside in straight races have been over-indexing vs the norm, but suspect with the rail coming out 6m they may look to get a bit wider. 2yo’s in race three probably come inside no matter what.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Give (7) Vangogh Bankcheque a great hope of knocking off the fave. He has a great turn of foot this horse and jump-outs have been outstanding. Deserves every bit of the 7kg (and more) off (1) Legacy Bound being a 67 rater, but it will come in handy.
Interesting that (1) Legacy Bound is resuming in a race like this and not Stakes company. He has trialled up well enough. Not sure the 61kg will worry him – he’s a big boy that should have no issue carrying the weight. Last run down the straight he was only bettered by Tentyris and My Gladiola in the Coolmore – handy form for this. He’s had good straight-track experience and is the clear class runner of the race.
(4) Military Tycoon will give a sight on speed and find this easier than the Lightning.
Selections:
(7) Vangogh Bankcheque
(1) Legacy Bound
(4) Military Tycoon
(3) Burma Star
Suggested bet: Backing Vangogh Bankcheque
Race 2
(3) She’s An Artist hasn’t quite delivered on the early promise but her first-up win at The Heath was better than it looked. Goes well down the straight and ideally drawn out in nine.
Think the horse massively over the odds is (2) Nervous Witness. His best form in HK is all 1000m down the Sha Tin straight. Look, he may be totally cast, but his trials leading into the first-up run at Randwick were sound and liked his jump-out down the straight since. If he brings anything like his best straight-track form they won’t see which way he goes. Have to have something on at 33/1.
(9) Verdoux was excellent first up while (8) Hezadarnhottoo just gave out late first up in Sydney but was coming off a long spell and will be improved for that.9
Selections:
(3) She’s An Artist
(2) Nervous Witness
(9) Verdoux
(8) Hezadarnhottoo
Suggested bet: Something small 1×3 E/W Nervous Witness
Race 3
Handy 2yo race with a stack of different angles.
(10) Sanctury is tactically versatile judging by her jump-outs and she’s got a ripping turn of foot – a great recipe for the straight.
(3) Simply Steffi is another with a strong close. She trialled nicely prior to a very good win fresh at Cranbourne. Inside draw may be a trick as she’s not the best beginner and fancy the 2yo’s come to the inside rail, but she’s got the requisite talent to be winning.
(1) Rebel Tuesday comes here having won two on end in Adelaide. Only won narrowly last time out but suspect the second horse goes well judging by trials and there was a big gap to third.
(2) Medicinal beat what looked a handy field at Ballarat and ran reasonable time doing so. Not sure about 1100 to 1000m, but stable flying with their 2yo’s.
(8) Jadzia has trialled up very nicely but she had a setback that has delayed her racetrack debut.
Selections:
(10) Sanctury
(3) Simply Steffi
(1) Rebel Tuesday
(2) Medicinal
Suggested bet: Tough. Can throw a blanket over them
Race 4
(2) Café Millennium has an exceptional 1400m record, especially at this track and trip with Celina Gaudray in the saddle. Drawing wider suits as he needs space to wind up. Can sprint over the top of them off both slow and fast tempos (tempo looks even here).
(3) Persian Spirit rises sharply in trip having had little luck in the Oakleigh Plate. Weight relief suits and has a good 1400m record.
(4) On Display looks like she means business first up judging by her latest trial. Had little luck this track and trip in the Let’s Elope last campaign and was a good winner fresh at Caulfield over 1400m.
(9) Scheelite might give some cheek on speed.
Selections:
(2) Café Millennium
(3) Persian Spirit
(4) On Display
(9) Scheelite
Suggested bet: Backing Café Millennium
Race 5
Good speed with (2) Sass Appeal and (5) Pillow Fight the likely leaders. (7) Lathlain, (40) Mystery ‘N’ Drama and (9) Naraghi right there.
(2) Sass Appeal is flying. This is a test getting to a mile and she comes off two slowly run 1400m races into what looks like being a truly run 1600m. Can win again, but can’t get her near the current price.
(1) Salty Pearl is a model of consistency. Gets in well at the weights under the SPW scale. Drawn for a reasonable run but she’s not the sort of filly I want to be taking $2.90 about in this contest.
(6) Exit has to give Salty Pearl weight but what she does have is upside. She was held up at crucial stages in the Armanasco last time out and she looks ideally suited to 1600m off a hot tempo. She’s a big price.
(7) Lathlain has great upside. She was totally dominant at Seymour. Ratings were moderate but that was a bi-product of them not going hard early. Mile and strong tempo are ideal.
Selections:
(6) Exit
(7) Lathlain
(1) Salty Pearl
(2) Sass AppealSuggested bet: Backing Exit and Lathlain to knock off the faves
Race 6
The form around (1) Zambales is irresistible. Unlucky not to figure in the finish of the Blue Diamond, held up at a crucial stage when running fourth. 1400m looks like it will suit and he can take up a more forward spot. That said, he’s short.
The other key winning hope is (12) Regal Ambition. She simply got too far back on debut at Ballarat but was terrific late. 1400m ideal. Drawing out suits. Will be strong late.
Can see why they’ve put the blinkers on (7) Leopard Shark. Looked like she was going to put (4) Hydrobomb to the sword at Sandown last start but had a bit of a think about it late. Hydrobomb was tough there on debut and looks suited to 1400m.
(5) Dr Hook trialled nicely before having no luck in the Silver Slipper. Big price at $15.Selections:
(1) Zambales
(12) Regal Ambition
(5) Dr Hook
(4) HydrobombSuggested bet: Quinella 1,5,12. Trifecta 1,4,5,12
Race 7
(8) Pride Of Jenni has only twice won first up, but they have been her last two campaigns, and have been the only times she’s resumed beyond 1400m. The only concern is her trials weren’t quite as good as last campaign. That said, she looks to control the race and if she brings anything like her best she’s the one they have to gun down.
Would’ve liked (3) Antino to do a touch more and don’t love gate one, but his best ratings have him in the finish and he goes well second up.
(1) Tom Kitten will be hitting the line strongly. Best last 200m split of the meeting winning first up and trialled nicely since. Form a little suspect out of that last start but he’s going very well whereas jury is out on some of his rivals.
Liked the return of (9) Steffi Magnetica and she maps for a lovely, soft run in the race.
(2) Buckaroo was super first up, as was (11) Leica Lucy.
(10) Treasurethe Moment has the talent to be in the finish but was plain fresh. Maybe she improves and relishes a strong tempo, but want to see her do it again before diving in at skinny odds.
Selections:
(8) Pride Of Jenni
(3) Antino
(1) Tom Kitten
(9) Steffi Magnetica
Race 8
Not sure how (9) Until Valhalla is $41. Won a handy BM84 two back and then ran one of the best last sections you’ll see in the Mannersism. She takes some riding and to be stopped in her tracks like she was last start is hopeless. Wide draw suits as she needs clean air.
(6) Too Darn Discreet can improve on her moderate first-up run. Gets Declan Bates back in the saddle and her best form comes second up and at this track and trip.
(8) See What I See produced a strong rating when running second in the Tressady first-up. She maps for a soft run on speed and is right in the mix.
(3) Philia can bounce back from a poor first-up showing having trialled well between runs, while (1) Benagil is a winning hope with Zahra back aboard.
Selections:
(6) Too Darn Discreet
(9) Until Valhalla
(8) See What I See
(3) Philia
Suggested bet: Backing Until Valhalla and Too Darn Discreet at odds. See What I See the best of the favourites
Race 9
(2) Tentyris has to give (13) My Gladiola 5kg and (7) Benedetta 4kg for beating them in the Lightning. He’s good enough to do so and is better suited to 1200m than 1000m. His straight-line speed is exceptional.
(7) Benedetta looks huge odds at $16. With even luck she finishes right with Tentyris in the Lightning and she was quickly past her rivals after the post. 1200m suits and the wide draw is a big plus. She’s the main danger.
(13) My Gladiola will again run a ripping race with 5kg off the rising star, while (14) Wodeton looked good in a straight-track jump-out here last week and profiles as a 1200m horse.
Selections:
(2) Tentyris
(7) Benedetta
(14) Wodeton
(13) My GladiolaSuggested bet: Good E/W on Benedetta (more the place) and happy to back Tentyris at $2.30 plus
Race 10
(4) Immediacy was keen first-up and may have gone off too quickly in that fast-run Carlyon. Third-up now off a long spell looks ready to peak.
(1) Augustus brings strong German form, including a Derby placing and a Group 2 win before coming to Australia. He was a touch stiff in the Derby given where the winner came in the straight, and he was still doing plenty wrong late, so there’s improvement to come. Trials have been sharp enough and importantly he has looked more tractable.
(2) Whisky On The Hill was super late in the Carlyon, perhaps a touch flattered by tempo, but may take a slightly more forward spot from gate two.
(7) Saganti is going well but was hoping he’d be at 2400m by now. (3) Magnaspin has a chance given he beat Saganti last start and shapes as a key rival.
Selections:
(4) Immediacy
(1) Augustus
(2) Whisky On The Hill
(7) Saganti
Suggested bet: Dutch Immediacy and Augustus (backing both to win the same amount)
