Summary of Best Bets:
Race 3 #2 Moonhaven – Dominant last start and well placed again.
Race 4 #12 Glass Of Rose – I have trust issued but has improved since blinkers went back on.
Race 9 #5 About To Explode – Fitter and has a turn of foot better than these.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2.5m
- Weather is OK through the week but 10-20mm predicted Saturday.
- If rain comes, they will leave the first 4-5 lanes and come out to the middle of the straight as they day goes on.
Stats that matter:
- Emily Lang was a premiership chance last year and is going through a downturn. Only 3 winners from last 50 and ROI of -49%. Has a few good rides here and gets a chance to get some on the board.
- Vlad Duric since he has come back is striking at 20% and a ROI +25%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
I thought the $1.55 was nuts about (1) Martist on debut but credit to the horse for getting it done. Wasn’t a dominant win by any means. Did a few things wrong and could improve with the day at the track for sure.
(6) Hit A Lick was $8 out to $16 and looked as though she’d be beaten a long way in that race but was decent through the line. Another who can improve and inside gate might help early.
Only a four horse field but (3) Gold Czech was solid at the Sunny Coast on a Soft 7. He can run well here and always respect Birchley youngsters.
Liked the effort of (4) Apostle on debut. Beaten a long way but by a very good one. 1000m to 1300m a little query on that run but could be in the money somewhere.
Selections:
(1) Martist
(6) Hit A Lick
(3) Gold Czech
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 2:
Some of these will have a stitch on the corner.
I’m not a (5) Mr O’Reilly man at all but the last two times he’s been to 2200m, he’s been good. Has the feather weight and 2400m might be what he wants.
Waller has (4) Liberty Park who had been outclassed down south but was able to win at second run up here.
Waller also has (3) Kureder and it’s been a while between drinks. Does run the trip, is rock hard fit and this might be the best chance he ever gets to win again.
Selections:
(3) Kureder
(5) Mr O’Reilly
(4) Liberty Park
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
Been with (2) Moonhaven at both runs for Currie. Don’t believe he was fit enough fresh and then blew them away 2nd up. Can land midfield without spending a penny and show the same turn of foot again.
Scratchings took the other two winning chances out, so not much else to say. (3) Port Erin is next best but can’t see it turning the tables.
Selections:
(2) Moonhaven
(3) Port Erin
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Moonhaven
Race 4:
I’ve got some trust issues with many of these.
(5) Ready For The Trip may need one more run to get him fit but I like what he did last prep and expect him to win a couple again this time in work and go through the grades.
If (12) Glass Of Rose can run up to what she did last start she can win. I had been waiting for that for a long time and she has just let me down. The two runs since blinkers went back on have been great.
(13) Creativity Miss is another non-winner who can attack the line late. She flashed last start but found one better again. Always a place chance for me.
Selections:
(12) Glass Of Rose
(5) Ready For The Trip
(13) Creativity Miss
Suggested Bet: (12) Glass Of Rose e/w
Race 5:
These CL3 plates are often the most interesting races on the cards, should be more the CL1-CL3 plates on Saturdays.
(3) Felix The Scat is the classiest on his day and best suited under these weight conditions. Just impossible to catch as he mixes his form and doesn’t want rain. Maybe watch the market with him.
(9) Sexy Time is the lightly raced horse in the leading stable and I’m sure punters will show plenty of support. Has the good on speed pattern and will look the winner for a long way.
(13) Hot Majesty has only won 1 of 16 but was brave behind Sexy Time last start and meets it 3kg better off here. Can turn the tables.
(7) Heavenly Love is fitter for recent runs and was strong through the line last time out. Looks a suitable target here.
(6) Backstage has been flattered by track patterns in my opinion. Tactically versatile helps and rock hard fit.
(8) June has a poor strike rate but, gee, I have liked his two runs this prep. The form from last start should stand up well and any rain would only help here. Can surprise a few here.
(12) Jenni Moreese bolted in last time and had been consistent before that.
Selections:
(13) Hot Majesty
(9) Sexy Time
(8) June
(7) Heavenly Love
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
They seem to take it in turns this lot.
(3) Free Carry was hopeless fresh. He is way better than that and does have a good 2nd up record (4::2:0:1). Expecting a bounce back here.
(5) Make A Call is Gollan and I think will have a heap of support dropping 4kg 3rd up. They are positives but unplaced in four runs at EF and the drier the better.
(4) Last Command has been good since racing in the sunshine state. Drops 4.5kg off the last run and rock hard fit after four runs back. Would love him to find a race with tempo but again this should just be average tempo at best.
(6) Rezone has been terrific since joining Currie and no reason he doesn’t run very well again. Two runs here for a win and close up second.
Selections:
(4) Last Command
(3) Free Carry
(5) Make A Call
(6) Rezone
Suggested Bet: No
Race 7:
Well I just got (1) North Pole completely wrong last time. I didn’t think he’d run 1820m downhill. He won in good style and back to a mile should be perfect. Good apprentice stays on and I’m not saying he can’t this time.
I think they are still working out (2) Kokatahi but there is talent there. I know he stopped late in blinkers last prep but I reckon they are worth another go. Heaps of upside and can win without surprising.
I’m a fan of (4) Castello Grande and the fresh run when last was better than it reads. They walked up front and he was no hope. May need one more run but likely to start way bigger odds than he should.
(11) Lady Tangalooma beat nothing but I love the way she went about it. Fitter and can land around the money.
Selections:
(2) Kokatahi
(1) North Pole
(4) Castello Grande
(11) Lady Tangalooma
Suggested Bet: Box trifecta 1-2-4-11
Race 8:
Very open race this and not easy to assess.
(1) Gospel Girl is very consistent usually and have to forgive the last start flop. Did have support in the market and Gollan will have her right 3rd up. Don’t love the 60kg for her but any rain would help.
(2) Enterprise Lucia has been off the scene a while but has ability. If it was 1000m she’d nearly be a best bet, just 1200m off this break is a query. Both trials full of merit and is definitely in form.
(3) Carravilla is no star but doesn’t know how to run poorly. Three wins from four runs this time in work and draws to get the run of the race.
(8) Cinque Terre was OK fresh and then a good winner 2nd up. May want further now but hard to knock that winning form. Thompson is the best jock here by so far at the moment but he isn’t on this time.
Selections:
(8) Cinque Terre
(1) Gospel Girl
(2) Enterprise Lucia
(3) Carravilla
Suggested Bets: No.
Race 9:
I think a lot of these have found their mark in life.
(5) About To Explode has won 5 of 15, has a turn of foot and can win more races. Needed the fresh run but held up on the corner too. Fitter now and if they can get off the fence before the corner, he can sprint better than them.
(6) Facundo has won 5 from 10 and was three wide with cover fresh. Is 2/2 second-up and expecting sharp improvement here. Should map well from the gate this time.
(7) Chamierro was good going through the grades last prep but may just need the run here.
(1) Millane, (2) Mister Bianco and (3) Ser Joh all have good ability but can be hard to catch.
Selections:
(5) About To Explode
(6) Facundo
(3) Ser Joh
Suggested Bets: Win (5) About To Explode. Save (6) Facundo if prices allow.
