In the perpetually futile endeavour of understanding horse racing, no horse has confounded punters quite like Pride Of Jenni.
Once again, she lines up in the All Star Mile, certain to bound several lengths clear of the field early.
How do you beat her?
Pride Of Jenni becomes vulnerable once the chasers remain within reach approaching the four-furlong mark. Bates and Pride Of Jenni regularly bluff the opposing jockeys, setting a pace that appears faster than what it is, stealing cheap lengths mid-race. To beat her, no one can afford to concede her more than six lengths leading into the straight.
To complicate matters, all but two runners are only second-up in their campaigns, therefore the race becomes a conundrum of intent.
When you bet against Pride Of Jenni, your fate rests with the jockeys chasing her, on how much rope they allow her.
Still, I’m eager to see Tom Kitten in a race where pace is assured, a scenario we’ve not often seen him in.
He was exceptional in the Kevin Heffernan over seven furlongs at Caulfield, reeling in Feroce with relentless late fractions. He didn’t quicken in a burst; he ground them down with a sustained speed none could live with.
A strong mile at Flemington is ideal; his cadence suggests ten furlongs is close to his optimum. If he’s within striking distance at the clock tower, he’ll power over the top in the concluding stages. I mark him 4/1.
Buckaroo appeals too, fresh off a terrific Futurity return a fortnight ago. There’s no doubt that he will appreciate a genuine mile, provided he’s not left with too much to chase. 6/1 feels fair.
Treasurethe Moment has now run five times since her Memsie Stakes demolition and hasn’t come close to replicating that level of form.
I’m neither with her nor against her, and have marked her a cautious 9/2.
The Newmarket Handicap is headlined by Tentyris, the brilliant Lightning Stakes winner. At three, he faces a stiff task under 57 kg; winning would be a tremendous achievement. Even so, he’s earned every bit of that weight.
He was blistering in the fastest five furlongs on earth, covering the final three furlongs in 31.38. He promises to be better over six furlongs, a frightening thought for the fourteen other runners.
As always, it comes down to price. I can’t mark him shorter than 6/4 and doubt we’ll see the dream 2/1, unless there’s a push against him from weight orientated punters.
Beyond the raging favourite, My Gladiola appeals under 50.5kg. But I suspect her best chance to topple Tentyris came in the Lightning.
He’ll improve for six furlongs, she may not. I’d have backed her heavily in the Oakleigh Plate; that, I believe, was her race.
Angel Capital bemuses me: an evident miler asked to sprint again over six furlongs. Even so, he lines up with a tremendous winning chance.
Horses like him, racing short of their optimal distance, often find Flemington’s straight as a safe space. There’s no rush to the first bend, so they’re not beaten for speed early and forced too far back.
Although when the pace is too slow, they simply can’t turn their stride over fast enough to match the elite sprinters. Think Jimmysstar, or even Joliestar, to a degree.
Even so, he’s well in at the weights, and double figures is far too generous. Reluctantly, I’m compelled to back him.
Although I fear a win keeps him sprinting when he could be the country’s best miler, so I’ll still be pulling his tail.
Beyond those three, little stirs interest. Begrudgingly, I’ll side with Angel Capital and hope that Tentyris is easy to back.
I’ve been telling anyone who’d listen that Zambales would win the VRC Sires’ Produce Stakes ever since his second in the Talindert Stakes on Lightning Day.
That belief stems from his cadence. Unlike many of the early‑season two‑year‑olds whose brilliance is confined to six furlongs, Zambales doesn’t possess a high stride frequency. He will almost certainly excel between a mile and a mile and a quarter.
He was great in the Blue Diamond Stakes, weaving through traffic and still finding the line powerfully for fourth.
Seven furlongs at Flemington is ideal at this stage; the expansive straight allows him to build through his gears. Provided the pace is even, he’ll put this field away with contempt.
Regal Ambition is progressive, the only conceivable danger, but Zambales brings the stronger form and deeper experience. In my market, he’s twos‑on. Or $1.50, for those that don’t like fractions.
