Deano Previews the Furious Stakes: Is Pembrey the real deal?

Track Pattern – Rail +3m Entire

Expecting a Good 4 track here. The rail is in the +3m position which suggests the track should favour those forward of midfield in transit and getting to lanes 3-8 in the straight. Big field and tempo on is needed for those worse than midfield to get into the race.

Speed Map

Solid enough speed expected up front here over the 1200m. It’s a very kind starting point and with this rail out +3m, they all should get their chance in what is a small field. I expect the two last-start winners, Chilly Girl and Pembrey, to lead this field up. Chilly Girl on the rail and, importantly to note, Pembrey off rails.

Oh Yes She Did and Screen Icon have lovely tactical speed. They look the next two in line. Cherry Bombshell and Krasina are the others who look to be pushed to the rails, with Striking Alibi on the outside.

At the rear, Chayan doesn’t look to have many more options than to smoke the pipe and hope they overdo it. Bangkok Hottie is the other in a similar boat.

Why Should We Trust Pembrey’s First-Up Figure?

Pembrey produced the highest-rated Silver Shadow performance since Libertini (103.5) back in 2019. She showed lovely gate speed to find the front from the wide draw, setting a tempo of +3.5L to the 600m mark before ripping home in outstanding sectionals. She was throttled down over the final 50m also.

Add to that, she ran around 3L faster than the older horses in the Toy Show Stakes on the same meeting. That’s a lot of ticks in a row and suggests we can trust that “big figure” first-up and trust she can replicate, if not improve on it, second-up.

Key Chances

Pembrey – I doubt she will drift much off her current price. She ran fast overall time, has an attractive racing pattern and maps ideally again. The other factor is the rating she ran – it is clearly the strongest in this race and she has improvement to come.

Map, rating, setup and improvement to come – all big ticks for her Saturday.

Chilly Girl – Dominant win in the Rosebud in the highest-rating edition since Paulele took the race out in 2021. She has an attractive on-speed pattern and has shown the versatility to both take a sit and lead. She is from the 2YO crop who didn’t reach the G1 Slipper, which can often see them have a better 3YO prep.

She maps to lead here, which is the slight query as she is likely to find the rails, and that will likely be inferior. She has been three weeks between runs, which is a positive, and a win wouldn’t shock.

Chayan – She looks disrespected in the market. And no, it’s not because she was “Slipper favourite”. She’s disrespected because the figure she produced when winning the Reisling Stakes was enormous and right up to winning this. Tack onto that she’s had a spell and another prep under her belt, I dare say she’s come back better.

She has a poor map and will get back to last. The positive is she only has four horses to round up and the best jockey in the land on board.

Striking Alibi – She was heavily backed in the Rosebud ($14 into $6.00) but was pulled out due to a temperature. She’s been given three weeks off, no trials, but if she is able to turn up to what she showed in her trials prior, watch out.

Verdict

Pembrey – WIN (1.5u)

Chayan – SAVE (0.3u)

Happy to have a strong bet on Pembrey. Dominant win in the Silver Shadow running slick overall time, improves here and is the map horse. Chayan has to be an each-way bet. If they overdo it, she’ll be charging home in the superior lanes 3–8.