Bet Legends bookmaker and form analyst Shaun Beirne is back with his latest Take Us On, identifying a vulnerable favourite at Geelong while finding plenty of interest in the day’s feature, the Geelong Cup.
Geelong Race 5 – True Tone
True Tone has attracted plenty of market attention, but Beirne believes punters are being asked to take a price that doesn’t reflect the task facing the lightly raced galloper.
"True Tone makes the leap from maiden grade into this race and, while he maps well, his ratings aren't superior to the rest of the field.
"He needs to improve around three lengths to justify his current price. He can certainly win, but he's simply too short for mine."
While Beirne is happy to oppose True Tone at the current quote, he's also identified a special for those who fancy the favourite to win with something in hand.
Special: True Tone to win by 1L+ at $5
Geelong Cup – Point Of Law and Small Fry
The Geelong Cup is shaping as one of the more intriguing betting contests of the afternoon, with proven Australian form coming up against a pair of progressive imports.
Beirne has plenty of respect for the Metropolitan form but believes the market may have underestimated the two UK stayers.
"The Euphrates and Juja Kibo both rated well in the Metropolitan, which could yet prove a pivotal form race this spring, but they run into two progressive UK horses here.
"Point Of Law has raced just four times, but on raw ratings I think he should be favourite. He's also a genuine Melbourne Cup contender if he wins his way in.
"Small Fry brings strong UK ratings as well, and I'm surprised there's such a gap in the market between those two and The Euphrates."
Beirne expects the market to correct as the race approaches, with little separating his three leading contenders on ratings.
"I expect the betting to tighten considerably between the three of them.
"It's a really interesting race, and Litzdeel isn't without a chance either."
With a Melbourne Cup ballot exemption on the line, there's plenty at stake beyond Wednesday's prizemoney, particularly for the lightly raced Point Of Law.
