Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R7 – (12) Justique
Race by race overview
Race 1
(8) Marsept is evidently the best performed maiden in this field, having run second to the very talented Extragalactic at Caulfield first-up, but I have no interest in taking twos on.
(4) The Botany Frog was heavily supported on debut. He was held up in the straight and finished well once he obtained galloping room.
Slightly surprised by the price of (1) Flamingo Flyer, who improved at start three, but again, I’ve no interest in backing or betting against this very obvious favourite.
(5) Upolu has run well without winning in three starts and has been at the head of betting at every run. He has trialled well since his last start 98 days ago.
Selections:
(8) Marsept
(4) The Botany Frog
(1) Flamingo Flyer
(5) Upolu
Race 2
Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr are very good with their debutants, often beating market expectation. (1) Enea has plenty of talent, having won all three jump-outs.
(4) Pursuit, (5) Stoneflight and (7) Lady Of Power have all jumped out well.
Selections:
(1) Enea
(4) Pursuit
(5) Stoneflight
(7) Lady Of Power
Race 3
(5) Geeseven closed well behind Jenni Gone Bonkers on debut at Pakenham in testing conditions. He has looked well at the jump-outs and deserves to be odds-on.
(7) Strangethingdesire has been well supported since markets opened. He hasn’t done plenty at the jump-outs, but he moves well.
(6) Royal Maximus has jumped out well wearing blinkers ahead of his debut, but does not wear them on debut. Not sure what to make of that, but the horse seemingly has talent.
(9) Elegant Contessa raced in a high-quality maiden last start and isn’t the worst double-figure chance.
Selections:
(5) Geeseven
(7) Strangethingdesire
(6) Royal Maximus
(9) Elegant Contessa
Race 4
Another very obvious favourite that I’ve no interest in taking twos on for. (10) Kiwi Jenni has joined Ciaron Maher’s stable since her last run, which is clearly the best piece of form in this race, and has trialled well.
(5) Soldier Boi made an excellent debut behind subsequent Tulloch Stakes winner Storm Leopard, finishing well from the rear of the field. He risks a similar scenario here, having drawn wide. I doubt Lucinda Boyd will ride with intent to lead.
(4) King Kalakaua has drawn wide and been ridden cold in two starts, and may be able to settle a lot closer.
(7) High Altitude has run some solid ratings previously.
Selections:
(10) Kiwi Jenni
(5) Soldier Boi
(4) King Kalakaua
(7) High Altitude
Race 5
(1) Eternal had an issue last start, so his underwhelming performance can easily be forgiven. It would not surprise me to see him ridden with intent to settle outside the leader. I doubt we’ve seen the best of him thus far.
(2) Hot Chips will likely lead, which can be advantageous at Geelong. He is arguably in career-best form after winning well last start.
(4) Yoomee Wonder won easily at Ararat last start and can hold a prominent position from barrier two.
(6) Into You might be the best horse in the race, but seven furlongs is on the shorter side for her.
Selections:
(1) Eternal
(2) Hot Chips
(4) Yoomee Wonder
(6) Into You
Race 6
(3) Brutalina will be able to settle close to the speed, if not lead, from barrier one. She brings in the best ratings, but the map may be difficult with an inexperienced apprentice aboard.
(1) Dantooine is usually very quick early and may be able to find the lead if Brutalina doesn’t. She went very quickly last start and may improve for it.
(11) Love Symbol will appreciate the strong pace.
(10) Finchaven won in fast time in a maiden last start.
Selections:
(3) Brutalina
(1) Dantooine
(11) Love Symbol
(10) Finchaven
Race 7
(12) Justique won stylishly on debut at this course, returning an excellent figure. He was then ridden cold on the Sandown Lakeside track, which has been producing some questionable form of late. There, it has been almost imperative to either settle on speed or hold the rail, and he was afforded neither advantage. His defeat is one that can be very comfortably forgiven. If he runs to the level of form he did on debut, he will win this very well.
(10) Delta Sky is consistent as ever and will run well again.
(4) The Muffin Man can improve.
(11) Move The Torana can run well on the quick turnaround.
Selections:
(12) Justique
(10) Delta Sky
(4) The Muffin Man
(11) Move The Torana
Suggested Bet: (12) Justique
Race 8
(11) Mrs Iglesia ventures past five furlongs for the first time, and I’m surprised she hasn’t done so to this point. She rates well and will be fancied by plenty.
(12) Southern Crescent was well beaten last start but was in the market. He can quickly turn it around.
(4) Wingsandpropellers beat the well-touted Yukaina last start, running fast time from the front.
(6) Ballynacally tired after setting a strong pace last start but can quickly return to form.
Selections:
(11) Mrs Iglesia
(12) Southern Crescent
(4) Wingsandpropellers
(6) Ballynacally
