Turf Talk
- Rail: True
- The jocks don’t know how to ride it, so doing form is just as hard.
- Eagle Farm is just a different beast. Half the time maps don’t matter because they all get off the fence late and horses that would have no hope otherwise go along the fence and win.
- Incredibly frustrating scenarios most weeks.
- Rain throughout the week with clearing conditions forecast for race day.
Stats that matter
- The JMac tax is real. James McDonald is striking at 26% from his last 50 rides but has a negative ROI of -34%.
- Rachel King has ridden 13 winners from her last 50 rides with a positive ROI of +72%.
Race 1
Absolute lottery to kick the day off. Luck is going to play a major role in this. A few key scratchings have made it harder not easier.
(8) Hidden Achievement is impossible to follow. The fact JMac rides again is a good sign.
(17) Daggers comes out of a weak race and was just ridden like the best horse to win there. Berry stays on and not sure on the tactics this time. May be positive again but this is harder.
(14) Sunset Dreaming is a genuine black-type mare suited in this grade. Better for two runs back and love the booking of Zahra.
Selections:
(8) Hidden Achievement
(17) Daggers
(14) Sunset Dreaming
(3) Iron Man
Suggested Bet: No
Race 2
Competitive 1000m dash here and decent speed to give them all a chance.
(4) Lyles took all before him last prep and won three from three. Has had a nice build-up for this with a few trials and won the latest of them. Throw McDonald on top and he looks bloody hard to beat.
(12) Swordplay is also a speed horse and only has 53kg. Couple of speed horses underneath and maybe watch the market.
(8) Silver Wedding will be better over further and after the run. Felt like she was improving every run last campaign and can surprise people here. If they go hard, she will be strong late.
(1) Belegato has always been a good sprinter up here. The 60kg is not ideal but he is tactically versatile and more than capable of winning.
(6) Petticoat gets the run of the race and like the fact she comes here with a run under her belt.
Selections:
(4) Lyles
(8) Silver Wedding
(1) Belegato
(12) Swordplay
(6) Petticoat
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(2) Royal Supremacy improved sharply second-up. Handles all conditions, Zahra rides and this looks a good target now third-up. Third-best last 200m in the lead-up.
(9) Highland Bling comes off two placings at 3200m. So hard to keep horses up after that but there’s 50 days between runs and the market will tell a story.
Some improving types down the bottom.
(13) Bella Montagna wants wet ground but has an in-form jockey aboard and comes here third-up.
(15) Wealdstone is a one-paced type but a genuine stayer who will be one of the strongest late here. Has had 28 starts but never gone better.
(11) Sun Worshipper was great last start and has some hope in exotics.
(5) Newlook is a genuine hope if we stay on Soft at this stage of the day.
Selections:
(2) Royal Supremacy
(15) Wealdstone
(13) Bella Montagna
(9) Highland Bling
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Royal Supremacy and 1×2 bet (15) Wealdstone
Race 4
Lots of winning form to try and line up here.
Let’s start with the favourite (2) Blind Raise. Wow. The two runs for two dominant wins could not have been more impressive. Has to go the opposite direction this time out but he just looks bulletproof with an electric turn of foot. Could be a very smart one.
(4) Martist was one I didn’t rate as highly as other punters but was a real eye-catcher in the lead-up to this. A repeat of that goes close.
(1) Vantorix was the winner of that race but the step to 1400m makes it hard for it to beat Martist again.
There is a bit of something about (5) Stormy Marco. A Wootton Bassett colt for Waller who had trialled only fairly before a good win on debut. Trialled better again since and might just be working it all out. McDonald rides and it can win.
(15) I Am Dirty was strong and dominant last week after getting a gun run. Wide gate not ideal but the backup is a good sign.
Not sure what the race was like that (16) Autumn Charm comes out of but it was strong late and draws well.
Selections:
(2) Blind Raise
(5) Stormy Marco
(4) Martist
(15) I Am Dirty
Suggested Bet: TRIFECTA – 2 // 4,5,15 // 4,5,15
Race 5
(9) Militarize is a horse I never back but I never leave him out of quaddies. Nothing but Group races all this prep and will find this a bit easier than most of those races.
(6) Athanatos is a consistent type who was a good winner last time out. Best part of the race was through the line and on track for a good Queensland preparation.
(3) Depth Of Character and (4) Tavi Time were both held up hopelessly at Scone and no idea how close they could have gone. Both winning hopes here for outstanding jockeys. Think this trip is exactly what Tavi Time is after now.
(5) Future History was good fresh and has a decent second-up record. Reckon he is past his very best but he’s still got good ability.
(14) Miss Joelene is just a gem and anytime she gets to 1800m with a light weight, she is a chance. Beaten a long way by Pride Of Jenni last start and I’m prepared to put a line through that run. Rock-hard fit and a hope here.
Selections:
(4) Tavi Time
(6) Athanatos
(9) Militarize
(3) Depth Of Character
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (4) Tavi Time
Race 6
This is always a great race and this is one of the best editions I can remember.
(2) Sixties is an absolute beauty and has won five of 11. Did win at 1500m two back before a midfield finish in the Doncaster. I just feel this trip (1400m) is perfect. Will have to be positive and try to find a spot on speed. If they get across okay, he will be hard to beat.
(5) Brave Monarch has been exceptional this prep. Won a Listed race second-up and then won the Guineas in great style. Four weeks between runs and back to 1400m is perfect. Has drawn to get the perfect run in transit again.
(3) Beadman gets to 1400m for the first time and has been going well. He is full of class and just has to run the trip out. Finished next to Jimmysstar in the 10,000 and that’s great form.
I’ve always liked (7) Estremo and he showed what he is made of last start. Only an open three-year-old but won well and blinkers go on now.
(14) Skyglider was huge from the back last start but will have it all to do from the wide gate again.
(8) Navy Pilot has shown Group class at times and then can have a plain run or two. Was a dominant winner in an easier race to kick the prep off and has won on this track before.
(17) Within The Law is a blowout chance for sure. No luck late first-up and then won a trial since. Up to 1400m on a big track with some speed on all suits.
(1) Grafterburners is a ripper and needs luck from the gate.
(4) Skyhook is a beauty but the wide gate and trying to cross these is a little query for me.
Selections:
(2) Sixties
(5) Brave Monarch
(7) Estremo
(17) Within The Law
(3) Beadman
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Sixties
Race 7
The main lead-up was the Rough Habit over 2000m. They went slow there and hoping this gets run a bit quicker mid-race.
The best two runs out of that race in my opinion were (18) Solid Gold, who draws gate 18 here, and (6) Beauty Swift, who draws gate 22. Have a feeling both will be more positive than negative and try to find a spot in the first six or seven settling. Both have world class jockeys and can win with any luck in running.
There is a sense of timing about (7) Monopolistic. Has improved each run and he jumped out of the ground last start over 2100m. Looks a genuine stayer who keeps improving at the right time. Another with a plain gate though.
(12) Accidental Bid has wraps everywhere but wasn’t good last start.
(9) Amazake can be one for exotic players, still a maiden though.
(1) Kilman was the winner of the Rough Habit and has to be respected off that, even though he led them as he liked.
(4) Providence is in good form and maps well so has to be a chance also.
Selections:
(18) Solid Gold
(6) Beauty Swift
(7) Monopolistic
(4) Providence
(9) Amazake
Suggested Bet: Win (18) Solid Gold and smaller e/w (6) Beauty Swift
Race 8
Fair to say (1) Jimmysstar is going well without being at his best. The 10,000 run was also good without being great. Handles all ground which is a positive and will be one of the strongest late.
(3) Private Eye is just a walking ATM for the owners. Wants it on the drier side but if the rain is gone by now this track should suit. Barrier is perfect, he can park on the leaders’ backs if he wants. Nash on and it just looks like a prep where a trainer knows his horse back to front and has timed this beautifully.
(7) Transatlantic can improve second-up. Just a pass mark fresh but Gollan will have this all timed at the Stradbroke and a step forward should be taken here from the good gate.
(16) Napoleonic was third in the 10,000 and has upside left. A very consistent three-year-old and looks a key player once again. Has a great turn of foot but just the last 50m of the 10,000 wasn’t the strongest.
(13) Skybird didn’t have the best luck last start and she can mix her form up. She is hard to trust but she has the ability to win if they run along up front. Can win at big odds.
(2) Rothfire won the lead-up and looked awesome. Hard to knock.
(14) Splash Back won the Victory Stakes and you’d think the big track and 1300m is more suitable.
(9) Yellow Brick has an amazing record on this track (7:4:3:0). Gate is a little concern but Berry rides and the win at Rockhampton was very good.
Selections:
(3) Private Eye
(1) Jimmysstar
(13) Skybird
(9) Yellow Brick
(2) Rothfire
Suggested Bet: e/w (3) Private Eye
Race 9
Gee, this is a doozy to finish the quaddie. Good luck if alive.
No doubt the wet track helped (7) Cigar Flick first-up and she has a great fresh record. Second-up she hasn’t run a place in six attempts which is a concern. Just think that win was outstanding and has to be a hope.
(6) Midnight In Tokyo finished around Tuned and Cifrado last start and that form has been franked. She is always a huge hope against her own sex at 1200m. She does need a soft track though and hasn’t ever won on Good ground.
Bit underrated is (9) Naifah and she is a filly in career best form. Led them up and won easily at Group 3 level last start. Gets on speed again easily from a good gate and can trouble these.
(10) Poster Girl was more than a pass mark fresh and she is a specialist at this track and trip (3:2:1:0). The Munce stable is likely to go on a run this time of year and a drying track will suit.
Want to put (1) Super Smink in quaddies. Has been good enough in Adelaide at Group 1 level and this is easier than what she has bumped into there.
(12) Spring Lee can lead for a long way but the last 50m is usually the query.
(18) Akaysha is in great form, maybe better at 1100m though.
No idea how you are meant to follow (5) She’s Got Pizzazz but she was excellent winning at the coast last time out.
Selections:
(9) Naifah
(1) Super Smink
(10) Poster Girl
(6) Midnight In Tokyo
Suggested Bet: Small win bets (1) Super Smink and (9) Naifah
