Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 8 #1 Castillian
- Next Best: Race 3 #15 Spaceballs
Turf Talk
- Rail out 0.5m.
- Very warm weather should dry out any moisture from earlier in the week.
- It should be a great surface and with the rail in, they should all get their chance.
- Get your maps right here and you can make some money.
- Will update Saturday morning as there will be plenty of scratchings from dual acceptors.
Stats that matter
- Kyle Wilson-Taylor’s stats are as good as anyone at the moment, striking at 20% from his last 50 rides with an ROI of +34%.
- Adam Campton does not have a big team but has won 8 of his last 45 and continues to do a good job with the stock he has.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Big fan of (5) Ramp It Up and he comes here off a win with a month between runs. He is accepted later in the day at 1350m and that may be more suitable off the freshen. He can win if he runs here.
Nice race for (7) Sarrismo. There does not look to be much tempo and he should be able to work across and find the front. He does not have the best turn of foot but he gets into the fight and these are not a great bunch.
Selections:
(7) Sarrismo
(5) Ramp It Up
(1) Logan Street Lion
(3) Cape Crusader
Suggested Bet: Quinella 5-7
Race 2
There could be little to no tempo here unless something changes tactics.
It looked a good race for (3) Anemacore last time out but it was only a plain return. There was a gap between runs there and he may improve lengths out of that. A better surface can also help.
(4) Demon Darb is back in form and has to be respected. He loves this trip and has run well here plenty of times.
(1) Victoria Road has class but does not look to have much upside. The claim helps.
Just a plain race and not one to get too involved in.
Selections:
(3) Anemacore
(4) Demon Darb
(1) Victoria Road
(7) Battleton
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 3
Two of (7) Grammar Lad’s worst runs have been at 1350m but watching his races, you would think it suits. He has been very good late in both runs back, draws inside and just needs luck at the right time to be in the finish.
(15) Spaceballs has looked very good in the NSW provincials and has been lumping 61kg. She drops to 56.5kg and gets Harley on top. She does need a little tempo, but they look to have found a nice race for her here.
(10) Glass Of Rose looked to be in career-best form for Tilley, but he had to jump off and the ride last start was plain. She still ran the second-best last 400m and 200m, though the gate is the knock here.
(14) Bollinger Miss has always shown a bit but mixes her form and is hard to catch. Nice fresh win this time in and just 55kg makes her a live chance in a very winnable race.
Selections:
(15) Spaceballs
(14) Bollinger Miss
(7) Grammar Lad
(10) Glass Of Rose
Suggested Bet: Win bet (15) Spaceballs, smaller saver on (14) Bollinger Miss.
Race 4
I have simply underrated (4) Bundella. He now has the overall record of 14:5-2-0 and has won his last two leading throughout. He can lead again and be hard to run down. It is older form, but both runs at this track have been plain, which is the small query.
I think (5) Exceed Speed is the better horse, but his best form is usually third and fourth run back from a break. Both trials have been OK and if they are weak late, he will be strong.
(6) First Mission has good ability but I thought he was there to win last start. I love the addition of blinkers and they could really switch him on.
(2) Estrondo and (12) Star Rapper have some hope in a good race.
Selections:
(5) Exceed Speed
(4) Bundella
(6) First Mission
(12) Star Rapper
Suggested Bet: Quinella 4, 5, 6.
Race 5
I feel (1) Glory Daze is the best horse in the race, but he has not won in 13 runs on dry ground and is clearly a better horse on soft going, so keep an eye on the weather.
(3) Prince Levi has been a model of consistency. He likes this track, the gate allows them to map where they like and he drops 6kg off his latest run, even though this looks a little harder.
(8) Brindavan has won two of his last three and is rock-hard fit now. Up to this trip should suit and the 8.5kg drop helps.
(9) Akkadian Emperor has won two on the bounce and is tactically versatile. This is a jump in grade but he drops 9kg and Thompson goes on. There is a lot to like.
Selections:
(9) Akkadian Emperor
(8) Brindavan
(3) Prince Levi
(1) Glory Daze
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 6
Interesting race. It looks an even tempo and they should all get their chance.
I have been waiting for (13) Prochester to go around again. He won first-up for the Bruce stable and then was wide but brave last start in a BM70 over the road. The bigger track may suit better, he is a strong horse, draws a decent gate and Thompson takes the ride.
(9) Lovey Dovey has always promised to be a decent stayer and she is the one in career-best form and still on the way up. She has run the best last 200m splits in each of her last four runs, winning two and finishing runner-up in the other two. The rise to 59kg is the only knock.
(8) Liberty Park has been a different horse since getting to 2200m and beyond. Respect any market support.
(14) Mr O’Reilly is no star but has been racing well in better races, beaten only 1.5 lengths in a BM80 last time.
Selections:
(13) Prochester
(9) Lovey Dovey
(8) Liberty Park
(14) Mr O’reilly
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 7
The two on top selections have come out and lost interest here. Think they have gone to the wrong races potentially.
(10) Special Artist has good ability but it is always a guess which version turns up.
(12) Tomba and (5) I’m Heroic have both been going well, though the gates are the concern. After scratchings it has helped them. They are on top but happy to let them go around.
Selections:
(5) I’m Heroic
(6) Amuseantes
(12) Tomba
(1) True Amor
Suggested Bet: Nope
Race 8
They gifted the race to (1) Castillian last start when they let him lead at a snail’s pace. Gollan just works tracks and tempos out and outplays them up here all the time. He likes the track and trip and is rock-hard fit now.
(5) Zondee has been good without being great. She comes here third-up for Heathcote and can go in exotics. Stablemate (8) Sultry Siren was a little plain last start but has ability.
(9) Thinkhardandfast is a good horse but surely needs a run or two to show his best.
Selections:
(1) Castillian
(5) Zondee
(9) Thinkhardandfast
(4) Ser Joh
Suggested Bet: (1) Castillian.
Race 9
Gollan has four in and they have drawn 1, 2, 5 and 12. (3) Dominant Darcy is a very good 1200m horse and has won four of five this prep. From gate two she should get the box seat on a track where she has won three of four and finished runner-up the other time. She is the one they have to beat.
(8) Savagery Vibe has been going well but has the sticky gate.
(2) Blue Spinel comes off a win and draws to get a decent run in transit.
The market may be the best guide with (12) Mercurial Lady, who changes stables and has had a nice trial to be ready. She is a live chance if they back her.
I have had zero luck catching (15) Cindersea but she comes here off a decent win.
Selections:
(3) Dominant Darcy
(12) Mercurial Lady
(2) Blue Spinel
Suggested Bet: Not at the prices.
