I like the look of this Sandown meeting on Saturday (full preview here). And, importantly, King Charles will be pleased to know I think he can pocket the $82,500 first prizemoney in race four. No doubt cash he desperately needs…
Provided they ride him positively, Gilded Water looks just about a moral to me.
I think he wins this race more than 50 per cent of the time and the $2.80 currently on offer at TAB is a big spoil. Let’s hope I’m right because I’ll certainly be backing him.
He got out to 2400m and 2500m last preparation and may well get back to those staying trips again this campaign, but I think he can prove incredibly effective fresh at 1800m on Saturday.
WATCH: Gilded Water run second in the Geelong Cup
He was good at Caulfield first up over 1800m last preparation, and I think he has trialled far better ahead of this campaign than he did leading into last preparation.
He has trucked up to win his last two jump-outs, at 1200m and 1400m, which looks the perfect platform for an 1800m first-up assignment.
Everything about the setup screams “I’m ready”.
Barrier four is another big tick. He’s drawn to control the race while his main market danger, Shockletz, is buried away inside of runners, which should allow Ben Allen to dictate terms over his key rival.
Shockletz also didn’t look overly comfortable inside of horses at Flemington second-up over 1800m last campaign, so gate two could be a real trick. She does get in with just 52kg after the claim for Logan Bates but given the map she looks too short at $2.90.
The main danger may ultimately prove to be Pudding, who is deep into a campaign. He was out-toughed by Arran Bay in Adelaide last start, but that form should hold up here and 1800m is no issue.
Wonder Boy is fit and in-form, but both the quick back-up and stepping to 1800m are queries.
Personally, I think Gilded Water should be closer to $2 than $2.80.
I expect him to be well backed and I’m very confident he’ll be winning. If he doesn’t, I fully expect the social media pile on, but will happily continue to have said opinions – that’s what the game is all about, after all.
