Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 1 (1) Pasima
Next Best: Race 4 (9) Tomato Toastie
Best Bet: Race 7 (1) Half Yours
Turf Talk
- Rail true.
- Not sure how the track will play.
- There has been a lot of rain around, but none leading in.
- Should be a Good 4 to Soft 5.
- Usually, as a rule, the southern jockeys overdo it and get way off the fence when not needed.
- Not sure what they do on the new track.
Stats that matter
- G. Begg has 11 winners from his last 50 runners and a couple of chances today in Bonus Season and She’s A Hustler.
- M. Rodd has found form at the right time with 10 winners from his last 50 and ROI +24%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Hard to knock (1) Pasima off last prep. Won four in a row and then beaten 2.5L in ‘The Wave’ behind Miss Joelene. Exceptional form and it’s just the 60kg and the apprentice that worries a little bit. Worth noting the horse has run well for apprentices.
(7) Daggers looked extremely well placed by Gollan last start but he was beaten fair and square. Only 1.5L off them but was a little plain. Blinkers go on and Berry stays on top.
(13) Miss Busslinger doesn’t win out of turn but always a chance in a race like this. Any rain would be a help for sure.
(20) Seven’s has ability but maybe another that might need rain to show best. Watch the market closely with it.
(4) Margot’s Deel and (9) Amplify would be leading hopes here if they run. They have accepted later in the day where they have better gates and assuming they will run there.
Selections:
(1) Pasima
(7) Daggers
(4) Margot’s Deel
(9) Amplify
(20) Seven’s
(13) Miss Busslinger
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (1) Pasima
Race 2
Been looking at taking on (6) Bundella but it just keeps getting placed well and keeps drawing good gates. Has won four on the trot, with Gollan and hard to find a knock.
I hate the wide gate but (8) Sunshineinmypocket has a bit of class and I reckon has a good race in it. Trial was good and just needs a Jmac special or some luck at the right time to attack the line late. Would rather 1400m, but a fast run 1200m is ok.
(9) Ouroboros is very consistent and should push forward from the gate. Was solid enough fresh, Thornton takes over on top and was a dominant winner second up last prep.
(7) Caspernova doesn’t have a great record at the track but he is more than up to this if he finds his best. Two trials leading in and has a good fresh record (4:1:3:0).
(11) Soothsayer was huge off a 1022-day break. Just run over late fresh and if he doesn’t have the second-up syndrome, he can give a sight.
Drop in grade for (13) Semillion but only won 3 of 31.
Selections:
(8) Sunshineinmypocket
(6) Bundella
(9) Ouroboros
(7) Caspernova
Suggested Bet: Small (8) Sunshineinmypocket
Race 3
Good race, some locals in form but looking away from them mostly.
(4) St Gotthard is a colt Waller brings north with Jmac to ride. Was a strong winner on debut. Was challenged there and fought them all off. Better for that, maps perfectly and hard to beat again.
(6) Berzilius was arrogant on debut. Sat back, made a three-wide run and put them away quickly. Looks to have a bit to give this colt and gets Berry to ride as another positive.
(9) Macedon Mission was horrible on debut but got a tongue tie on last start and savaged the line. Held up a long way and could have troubled the winner with clear air. Will get back but could rocket late.
(8) Zynaro had trialled well but not all went to plan on debut when well held. Three wide there but still some merit in the run. Can improve sharply off that.
Selections:
(4) St Gotthard
(6) Berzilius
(9) Macedon Mission
(2) Unloading
Suggested Bet: Win (4) St Gotthard
Race 4
There are a fair few out of form here.
The gate might be very good for (9) Tomato Toastie. Looks to be a better horse when she can get to the outside of them. Just seems to hesitate in between horses. Rock hard fit and feel she can keep improving.
Don’t love back to 1400m for (15) Margot’s Deel off the heavy track run but this might be the race to do it. She has a turn of foot on her day and if the gaps open up she can go close here. Always happy to forgive one flat run, especially wet tracks.
(16) Amplify is right up to these off her best form. Was a winner fresh last prep and the recent trial was more than a pass mark. In the Maher stable and looks to draw a suitable gate. Could be one of the strongest late.
(13) Ten Deep is airborne in easier races but draws a horror gate this time around. Hard to knock winning form though.
Selections:
(9) Tomato Toastie
(16) Amplify
(15) Margot’s Deel
(13) Ten Deep
Suggested Bet: Each-way (9) Tomato Toastie
Race 5
Toppy has some class, (1) Single Red. Was third in the NZ Oaks in February. Not easy to try and peak twice but she was dominant fresh over the mile and can get a lovely run on speed and try to hold these off late.
(2) Spicy Lu took off early and held them off at EF. She was paddling late but is rock hard fit and might try the same tactics here.
(4) Zuleika is a genuine staying filly and was a strong winner last run. Feel she is improving all the time and a hope again here.
(3) Nightline is the best ‘local’ but gate 18 doesn’t help. On the Oaks path and expecting another good run here.
Selections:
(1) Single Red
(4) Zuleika
(2) Spicy Lu
(3) Nightline
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
I like honesty, and I honestly have no idea. Luck will be the deciding factor, that or the best ride wins.
(11) Tonkin was plain last start but that was the first time she has missed a place in nine career runs. Won a trial since then and Clark stays on top.
Didn’t think I’d give (8) Flying Destiny a chance in a race like this but he’s been exceptional in easier races. Has won last two and drops 10kg on a track he won his only start at.
(7) Scampi wasn’t suited by the tempo last start. Will get back but get a hot speed to help. If the splits come, he can run a race with 53kg.
Selections:
(11) Tonkin
(8) Flying Destiny
(7) Scampi
(3) Steady Ready
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
Always a great race, the Hollindale, and a great guide for the rest of the staying features over the carnival.
I have no idea what to do with (9) Pride Of Jenni. I have never been able to get her right so I usually don’t bet in her races. This track should suit her and if she brings her best she could beat them easily. If the other Jenni shows up she will be hopeless.
The last 50m of (1) Half Yours’ work in the first-up run was sensational through the line and the step to 1800m is perfect. I was looking to get him beaten here but the more I look at the race the more I like him.
(10) She’s A Hustler is a pearler. Loved the fresh run where she just got through the gears and best part was through the line. Another who will relish the step to this distance and expect her to be right in the finish here.
(3) Birdman might be next best in a very good race.
Selections:
(1) Half Yours
(10) She’s A Hustler
(9) Pride Of Jenni
(3) Birdman
Suggested Bet: Win bet (1) Half Yours
Race 8
I have been (2) Beadman’s biggest fan but there has to be some queries now. The last couple haven’t been great. Recent trial looked back on track and bolted in only start this track.
(1) Beskar is 2/2 this prep and realising the potential we all saw early days. Should push forward from the gate and back to 1200m is no concern. Hard to beat.
I feel (5) Skyglider could have been the big improver but gate 15 makes it very difficult if the track isn’t playing to swoopers. Fitter for the run and quiet trial to be ready for this.
(10) Nepo Baby just keeps improving. Has won or placed in all five runs to date. Looked home for all money last start and just nailed late. Draws the inside and can sit where they like. If the inside is fine, she can win.
(12) Motorsport might get to a tricky spot from the gate but I think she is a smart filly. Has a turn of foot and they are nowhere near the ceiling with her.
Selections:
(1) Beskar
(12) Motorsport
(2) Beadman
(5) Skyglider
(10) Nepo Baby
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
The top two have class but big weights because of that.
(2) King Of Roseau won a $2 million race here at the Millions carnival, then freshened and won in February in Sydney. Freshened again and if the outside is the place to be, he can blouse them late.
Gollan has (1) Hidden Wealth. Solid fresh without being spectacular. Always a threat in this type of race.
I rather (5) Midnight In Tokyo against her own sex but she is a consistent mare who loves the cut out of the track. This should suit.
(7) Pereille is a bit of a ‘gonna’ horse without getting it done. I just feel fresh, this race can set up well and this might be the perfect race for him.
(8) Tuned was excellent in Qld when last up here. This is a great race for him, just didn’t love the latest trial even though he has a great fresh record and Thompson rides.
(12) About To Explode is a light weight chance but needs some things to go right as he will get back from the gate. (3) Cifrado and (4) Metalart are both locals who have good ability. Either could win and not surprise.
Selections:
(2) King Of Roseau
(1) Hidden Wealth
(7) Pereille
(4) Metalart
Suggested Bet: Each-way (2) King Of Roseau if they are making ground
