Blue Diamond Day is widely regarded as one of the premier race days on the Australian racing calendar, and this year is no exception. While none of the three Group 1 contests could be considered vintage editions, they, alongside a strong supporting card, present an outstanding day of wagering.
Foremost among them is the day’s feature, the Blue Diamond Stakes, which has an absence of established talent, but is all the more compelling for it. Divergent opinions will encourage a vibrant marketplace. Guest House heads the market at this stage but has failed to settle in both runs to date, which will be vital to his chances in Saturday’s Group 1. If Jamie Melham can coax him into a rhythm over six furlongs, I fancy him as the winner. That is a significant proviso, however. Should he race ungenerously again, one of the more professional two-year-olds should have his measure. I’m prepared to take the gamble, however, and he’s the first of my two bets in the race.
Closer To Free was excellent winning the Prelude on debut, though I’m inclined to believe that they left no stone unturned ahead of that run and may be left with no further improvement. Unit Five, the Magic Millions winner, is notably clued on to racing for a colt with just two starts, but similarly to Closer To Free, I contend whether he can improve once more after peaking last month. Having already won over a fast six furlongs will do him no harm, however. Experience matters.
Milsons Point is the colt that piques my interest in the Diamond. He’s untested beyond five furlongs, but his stride would suggest that six may be his optimal distance. There’s little separating this crop currently, and he may be capable of taking meaningful improvement in a high-pressure scenario, which the Blue Diamond should provide.
The Oakleigh Plate, similarly to the Blue Diamond, is far from a vintage edition, but is one that should derive strong opinions. Point Barrow is an enormous talent, improving with each run, and carries the impression that she is considerably better than what her form suggests to this point. With that said, a truly run five and a half furlongs at Caulfield may pose some challenge to her. She’s not entirely clued on to racing yet, and is sorely devoid of early pace. It’s reasonable to suggest she’ll settle last in a field of fourteen. She may yet prove the best horse in the field, if she isn’t already, but even with her allocated 50kg, she’s difficult to entertain as a betting proposition, particularly inside 3/1.
Persian Spirit has improved markedly over the last six months. He has produced some excellent performances over seven furlongs at Caulfield and Flemington respectively, but I suspect he may ultimately be better suited over sprint trips. His stride would suggest that he may be best as a sprinter, and it’s entirely possible his success over seven furlongs has come on class alone. It’s only a theory, but it wouldn’t surprise to see him run to a new peak on Saturday. I have assessed him as a 10/1 chance.
She’s Bulletproof, runner-up in last year’s Oakleigh Plate as favourite, finds herself an outsider this year. She wasn’t herself in the spring, but her recent jumpouts suggest she has returned in exceptional order ahead of this preparation. She is a cheap bet to have.
Topweight, Hedged, was dynamic winning the Australia Stakes, defeating War Machine in fast time at Pakenham. He shoulders 59kg here, but he’s earned it. I envisage him appreciating a tractable run behind the speed, and if he is capable of reproducing the figure he ran at Pakenham, he will certainly be prominent in the finish.
The Futurity Stakes marks the return of Treasurethe Moment, who was breathtaking in the spring’s equivalent, the Memsie Stakes. From a stride frequency standpoint, she is markedly the quickest among the market’s leading chances, affording her a decisive advantage over her opposition. Her spring campaign was compromised by an untimely bout of colic, and she failed to reproduce the peak performance she delivered in the Memsie thereafter. Pericles and Evaporate provide some resistance, but over seven furlongs, she has the upper hand, and by assessment, even money is her true price.
Elsewhere, I struggle to comprehend Immediacy as anything but a 2/1 chance. I had anticipated he would open favourite in what appeared an otherwise modest betting race. Instead, 7/1 was bet and 4/1 remains available. He was exceptional in his return to racing in the Carlyon Cup, narrowly beaten by Light Infantry Man after being marginally held up in a race where the pace was true. He has shown previously that he comes to hand quickly, winning second and third-up last campaign, with ratings that would account for this field. It would not surprise to see him firm into favouritism by Saturday.
Master Of The Air is another middle-distance runner that appeals. His return in the Autumn Stakes was sound without being spectacular, though seven furlongs is short of his optimal distance. He progressed quickly in three runs last preparation, culminating in the Gloaming Stakes, where he was heavily supported into favoritism. He’s drawn favourably and gains the services of the astute Ethan Brown. As much as 14/1 was bet, and I expect that price to continuously tumble inside 4/1 on Saturday afternoon.
Best of luck to my great friends Tyson Hunter and Adrian Graeber with Guest House and Hedged, and to Tom Clark and Jack Adam with Eternal Warrior.
Summary of bets:
Race 3: Immediacy
Race 4: Master Of The Air
Futurity Stakes (r7): Treasurethe Moment
Blue Diamond (r8): Guest House/Milsons Point
Oakleigh Plate (r9): Hedged/Persian Spirit/She’s Bulletproof
