Good Will Hunting: Cranbourne Cup

In a capacity-field Cranbourne Cup, last-start Flemington winner Sabaj heads the betting despite drawing a complicated barrier.

Highly touted heading into Stakes Day, he exceeded market expectation in wintry conditions, storming from last to overhaul a field of Benchmark grade runners. It was a strong win, and on weights and measures, his performance rating that day stacks up well here. But with a difficult likely settling position, I’m more than comfortable risking him at prices inside 3/1.

He was also impeccably paced by Mark Zahra relative to the lead speed, able to finish the race three and a half lengths slower than standard over the final 400 metres and still win easily. While a strong pace is almost guaranteed again on Saturday, Cranbourne is a very different test for backmarkers than Flemington, and making up that many lengths late may prove difficult against a better grade of horse.

Never in doubt 🙅‍♂️

SABAJ storms home from the back to give jockey Mark Zahra his seventh win of the #MelbCupCarnival.

🎥 @wwos | #StakesDay pic.twitter.com/VEqdw56hQo

— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 8, 2025

Air Assault detonated the clock at Morphettville, smashing Sir Kingsford by six and a half lengths, the same Sir Kingsford who started inside 10/1 in the Group 3 JRA Cup on Cox Plate Day. He again follows the same path as last year, the John Letts Cup in Adelaide, before crossing the border for the Cranbourne Cup.

Twelve months ago, he was narrowly beaten by subsequent Group 1 winner Globe. The difference this time is that he doesn’t have Damian Lane in the saddle, instead partnering with Jason Holder, but he does arrive off a career peak performance. If he can hold that level, and with a significant map advantage over Sabaj, his current price looks marginally too big.

It had been 392 days between drinks for Warnie prior to his last start, a horse who has consistently been around the mark without breaking through. The same applies here. While he comes into this off a career peak performance, he’d likely need to go to another new level to win on Saturday. He’s honest, he’s reliable, and he’s assured to run well, but I want to back the winner. In my view, his true price sits north of 10/1, rather than the 6/1 currently being bet.

Enxuto was well-gambled to win the Chester Manifold Stakes on Saturday but could only manage fourth. Robbie Griffiths would love to land a feature at his home track, but once again, Enxuto lacks the knockout punch of Air Assault and Sabaj, instead profiling as a horse who reliably runs just below the likely winning standard.

That’s not to say he can’t win; a new peak isn’t off the table, but he would need to produce a level of performance he hasn’t yet reached at any stage of his career. There’s also a fair question around whether, having already been on the quick back-up this preparation, we may have already seen his best for the campaign.

Like Warnie and Enxuto, Steparty also contested the Damien Oliver, closing strongly after settling last in what was only a moderately run race. He then struck an impossible scenario in the Champions Mile, asked to take on Group 1 milers on testing ground. He neither overperformed nor underperformed; he was outclassed in unsuitable conditions and finished last, beaten 20 lengths.

Simply too good ✨

WARNIE delivers in The @ABCBullion Damien Oliver for Mark Zahra and @cmaherracing.

🎥 @wwos | #DerbyDay | #MelbCupCarnival pic.twitter.com/qAZJtoSGtH

— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 1, 2025

That run is easily forgiven, and with Craig Williams engaged, he brings a genuine winning chance into Saturday. He’s already been Group 1 placed and competitive against a higher calibre of opposition than what he meets here, and his chances shouldn’t be overlooked.

A runner at odds worth considering is Holymanz, who effectively took no part in the Damien Oliver after taking no part prior to the final furlong. He may need the run, but he has previously run to the level of form required to win a race of this calibre.