Good Will Hunting: Will Elford has a stacked betting card at Flemington

Heavy rain has fallen since Wednesday afternoon and is expected to continue through Thursday, hopefully stopping between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon. That said, the weather should not diminish what is a terrific Flemington program.

The day’s betting begins in race two, where Madiyya stretches out to a mile for the first time this campaign. She’s highly talented and it’s more than likely that she still has not reached her ceiling, so this may be the best opportunity to back her in a race at this level.

She is well drawn to take advantage of an even-to-strong pace, settling forward of midfield and appears to hold a decisive positional advantage over the other leading chances. I have her rated $3.00, and she looks an appealing way to begin the day’s wagering.

Race three is an exceptionally competitive contest for three-year-old milers, headed by Flying Done, who was beaten into second by Concord Connie, a filly who looks destined for Group-class races. He was able to dictate with a relatively soft lead first-up at Flemington, where they ran just shy of ten lengths slower than standard to the 800 metres for that grade over 1400m.

There was a significant headwind that day, though, and no runner settled closer than fifth and won. Still, he continues to raise the bar with every start, and there is no reason he cannot keep progressing on an upward trajectory.

To race four we go, where there is a strong case to be made for the esteemed Danielle Loos and Neil Farley combination with Immortal Triumph. It would be a wonderful story if Danielle, who has trained just five winners over the past three years, could land a Flemington victory over the likes of Peter Moody, Ciaron Maher and Grahame Begg, whose horses currently head the market.

Setting aside the romance of it all, Immortal Triumph’s maiden win was more than a second quicker than the two other 1100-metre races at Geelong that day. I would contend that his maiden victory was objectively superior to Biologics’, and I doubt many would disagree.

If he were trained by a leading stable, there’s not a chance he would be 30/1. I make him 7/1, and that’s even before factoring in the positive EV of a good story.

Race five is far too difficult, so we can pass that and move on to race six, where Eloyou appeals at 5/1 in places. Last weekend’s Caulfield track was a mess, and the less said about it, the better.

Under those extreme circumstances, he ran well, even if he did not quite improve on his resuming effort. It would be unwise to take that form literally, though it is still worth noting that he ran well, regardless of the conditions.

What is important, however, is that he does appreciate rain-affected going, is third-up on the quick turnaround, and rises to his optimal distance of seven furlongs. There was plenty in his first-up run to suggest Scott Cameron has him nicely tuned and that his best figures are still well within reach.

I thought he was entitled to be favourite, and he looks an exciting betting proposition. I’d expect him to firm on race day and be sent away as the market leader.

Potentially the day’s most intriguing runner is Zahrann, who remains sparingly raced and undeniably progressive. A winner of the Royal Whip Stakes in Ireland, he was then sent away at 5/1 to topple Delacroix, Aidan O’Brien’s champion three-year-old of last year, in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was well beaten, of course, but the market’s expectation of him was nothing short of world-class, and he may still be that.

He made a sufficient Australian debut, finishing quickest in what was a terribly slow mile, indicating that he has acclimatised well to local conditions without showing what lies under the bonnet. There is a scenario where he is in a different stratosphere of class to this field, which makes him a very appealing gamble at better than 4/1.

The best race of the day is Race 8, which is incredibly even and offers plenty of chances. I’ve priced this race at 6/1 the field and give significant chances to horses outside the head of the market.

Noble Work has placed twice from two runs this campaign, finishing well relative to the pace on both occasions. He will appreciate ten furlongs.

Soldier Boi, for Lucinda Boyd, was held up in the main lead-up, losing significant momentum between the 600 and 400 metre markers. He can improve once more.

I also give a chance to Gold Topaz, who has a strong profile and was poorly ridden last start. He can quickly turn around his form and run to a level that renders him competitive in a race of this quality.

I wouldn’t discount She’s Got The Cash from calculations either. She was well-positioned toward the rear of the field in the main lead-up where the pace was fast, but she finished fast irrespective of the pace and can settle further forward in this race. She was sent away at an enormous price last start, but perhaps that was wrong.

I will back all four horses.

Good Will Hunting Bets