Race by race overview
Race 1:
(5) Star Trip was not given much chance first-up over 1000 metres and can improve significantly stepping up to 1200 metres. The market expected plenty of her fresh as well, asking her to reproduce the figure she ran when runner-up to Cavalry Girl at Mornington. That form has since received a significant boost, with Cavalry Girl winning the Lightning Stakes in South Australia over the weekend.
(10) Miss Lola was well backed in Saturday grade last start and did plenty of work outside the leader. She can improve, particularly back to 1200 metres. I have Star Trip and Miss Lola priced very closely, which is why Star Trip gets the nod.
(3) Zethus ran well two starts ago when finishing off strongly. He was plain last start, but hung out throughout the run and may simply not have been suited by Flemington.
(4) Electric Elvis was a dominant winner last start, although that came in weaker company.
Selections:
(5) Star Trip
(10) Miss Lola
(3) Zethus
(4) Electric Elvis
Suggested Bet: (5) Star Trip
Race 2:
(7) Nordic Strike looks capable of settling just behind what should be a genuinely run speed and appears well placed to produce his peak performance fourth-up this preparation.
(5) Tower Bridge is highly talented, but I suspect he will be better suited with a run under his belt. He has also drawn wide and may be ridden conservatively.
(8) Walter Spur finished off strongly last start and continues to race in excellent form for Trevor Rogers.
(6) Foxenberg has plenty of ability, but he can be inconsistent and, in my view, is at his best when allowed to control the tempo.
Selections:
(7) Nordic Strike
(5) Tower Bridge
(8) Walter Spur
(6) Foxenberg
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(2) Stay Silent backs up quickly from last week, where he was somewhat underwhelming relative to market expectations, but he may be able to control this race from the front and prove difficult to run down.
(11) Touxlove won well last start, although he was assisted by a genuinely run race. He enjoyed the most economical run but still deserves plenty of respect.
(4) British Columbia can improve sharply after racing wide without cover at Cranbourne first-up in a race run at a fast tempo. They may elect to roll forward here, although he may still be one run away from his peak.
(6) Camp Cable produced a strong rating last start and has the ability to measure up despite rising in class.
Selections:
(2) Stay Silent
(11) Touxlove
(4) British Columbia
(6) Camp Cable
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Stay Silent (Best Bet)
Race 4:
(7) Blue Willow is the obvious favourite, but she can be slow into stride and found herself a long way off the speed last start before making up good ground over 1800 metres. Interestingly, she drops back to a mile here. She may ultimately be looking for the extra furlong and lacks natural gate speed. At around $3 she becomes interesting, but at $2.50 she looks a touch short given the likely race shape.
(3) Both Sides Now looks the likely leader and has trialled well since a plain effort at Warrnambool.
(4) Tempranillo is third-up and should be able to settle much closer to the speed than the favourite.
(2) Eleanor Dumont may also roll forward and can bounce back after a disappointing performance last start.
Selections:
(7) Blue Willow
(3) Both Sides Now
(4) Tempranillo
(2) Eleanor Dumont
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
(9) Foire De Trone made a sustained run last start and was unsuited by the way the track played at Caulfield. She looks ready to rise to 2400 metres now and should relish the extra trip.
(8) Empress Of The Sun was disappointing last start but had been remarkably consistent in this grade throughout the winter months prior to that effort.
(10) Ant has changed stables since his last run, where he was found to be lame. I still think he remains somewhat unexposed and Gavin Bedggood has a strong record of improving horses of this profile.
(7) Customer Service maps to enjoy a favourable run and has consistently produced ratings capable of winning a race like this.
Selections:
(9) Foire De Trone
(8) Empress Of The Sun
(10) Ant
(7) Customer Service
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
There doesn’t appear to be much edge in this race at the current prices.
(3) Missapprehend is the most likely winner and I have her marked around $2.50. She attracted strong market support at Flemington last start and now looks ready to peak third-up.
(4) Shamansara made a good debut and has plenty of scope to improve off that performance.
(1) Censori won with authority in a race run at a frantic tempo. I get the impression she is looking for further now and returns here after 28 days between runs without a jump-out.
(8) Licentious receives a significant weight swing on the favourite after racing well on speed last start, although she is likely to be ridden more conservatively this time.
Selections:
(3) Missapprehend
(4) Shamansara
(1) Censori
(8) Licentious
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
(2) Beechworth may simply not have been ready for the test of his last-start run at Caulfield after coming through a slowly run first-up race at Bendigo. He looks ready to peak third-up and appeals as a worthwhile alternative to the favourite, who is highly progressive but appears much too short at odds inside $2.
(14) Here’s Matilda may have won first-up purely on talent and could develop into a very good filly. However, odds around $2 suggest a very strong opinion of that debut performance. It was certainly impressive, but that price implies she will improve sharply again at start two. She is out of a half-sibling to Cross Counter and is bred to appreciate much further, so perhaps that level of improvement is not out of the question.
(1) Cinturato has been excellent throughout the campaign, although I get the impression his very best performances come on genuinely wet ground.
(9) The Mean Fiddler may not have seen out the trip last start, and the drop back to seven furlongs could spark improvement.
Selections:
(2) Beechworth
(14) Here’s Matilda
(1) Cinturato
(9) The Mean Fiddler
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
(2) Shiny New Deel was excellent first-up and the engagement of Jamie Mott suggests positive tactics second-up.
(1) Taka Speed is well suited at this level but has been slightly below his best at his past two starts. He maps to enjoy an ideal run behind the speed.
(7) Tishman was an impressive first-up winner, although this shapes as a very different race tactically.
(6) Allegro Miss backs up quickly after travelling south. She finished off strongly last start and should be able to settle closer to the speed in this contest.
Selections:
(2) Shiny New Deel
(1) Taka Speed
(7) Tishman
(6) Allegro Miss
Suggested Bet: No bet
