The day has finally come. It’s Melbourne Cup Day.
Like last year, Derby Day was a favourites day. Cup Day proved difficult last year, with a string of upsets, so we can only hope this year doesn’t follow the same script.
The Cup is a fantastic race, this year and every year. I’ve found this year’s field to be quite top-heavy, and I would be surprised if we had an upset winner.
Melbourne Cup – Point Of Law, Sons And Lovers and Hopewell Rock
Point Of Law must be favourite. He was purchased for plenty and delivered in spades at Geelong. The pace was searching, he settled at the girth of The Euphrates and idled up alongside him upon straightening. He won well and left the impression there was more to come on the first Tuesday in November. He’s still very lightly raced.
That’s a positive in some respects, but many will argue it’s equally a negative. I don’t disagree. The Melbourne Cup is a big occasion, and it will be an entirely different test for a young horse. There’s a risk he becomes overwhelmed by the occasion, as many can, but all the same, his current odds of $8.50 represent value. I make him a $6.00 favourite.
I won’t profess to have a great deal of knowledge of racing abroad. I don’t bet in New South Wales, let alone overseas. But I’ve managed to get my hands on a few ratings and convert them to the scale used by my database.
Of the visitors, Hopewell Rock was the one who really stood out. He’s lightly raced and finished second in the Ebor Handicap before travelling to Australia. Perhaps he should have won that day, too. His jockey dropped the whip. Callum Rodriguez has been replaced by local lightweight rider Zac Lloyd, which is another positive. I make him around $8.00, so his current odds are appealing.
Sons And Lovers, one of Joseph O’Brien’s five runners, is the third horse I’ll be backing. He won the Prix Maurice de Nieuil over 2800 metres at Longchamp before finishing behind Arabian Crown in his most recent start ahead of travelling to Australia. He must carry topweight, but even accounting for the weight, his ratings put him well within reach of the likely winning standard. He’s another who represents value.
I won’t make any profound comments about the internationals’ chances, because it isn’t my forte. But based on the ratings I’ve been able to access, they have a brilliant chance and hold the edge over the locals, besides Point Of Law, if you can call him one.
Bracket betting all three gives you around $3.75, which I believe is a good price. Based on my own rated prices, their price is $2.87.
Race 4 – Ole Go and Splendalicious
Ole Go resumed with a good run in Adelaide, without showing off too much. He’s drawn to settle behind the speed and is capable of racing to a new peak, particularly with James McDonald aboard, who had a fair day out on Saturday.
I’ll also have a small bet on Splendalicious, who made a stellar debut at Sandown and is drawn favourably to settle near the pace.
Race 5 – After Summer and Bur Dubai
The 2800-metre handicap is a race I often love, and this year is no different. The betting portrays a wide-open race, and I certainly agree.
After Summer has been beaten senseless in two runs, but both have been unsuitable. She’s in need of a staying contest. She’s a slow-striding horse and couldn’t sprint once the pace went on last start. She’ll be much better suited over 14 furlongs. I make her $8.00.
Bur Dubai, at his best, would be favourite for this race, but has been out of form, at least on paper, since resuming from a long spell. He made his move when the pace was at its fiercest last start, and he might have been a lot better than the form card suggests. He can improve.
Race 6 – Sabaj
Sabaj won on Stakes Day last year, and many will be hoping he repeats the dose, this time on Cup Day.
I fancied him in the Toorak, and I do again tomorrow. He’s brilliantly placed under the handicap and rising to nine furlongs. He was carried wide throughout last start and had been hinting towards a peak beforehand. He wasn’t given ample opportunity there, but I suspect he will be tomorrow.
Race 10 – Buccleuch and Cash
Buccleuch returned to form with a dominant win at Caulfield, and I believe he’ll improve again with a stern test and the move to Flemington. I forecast him to reach a new peak tomorrow and make him $3.50, so his current odds of $3.80 are appealing.
Cash has had two runs this campaign, both on terribly rain-affected tracks. He’s a big horse and seemingly doesn’t enjoy those conditions.
The track should be in good order tomorrow, allowing him the opportunity to return to form.
Will Elford’s Cup Day selections
Melbourne Cup: Point Of Law, Sons And Lovers and Hopewell Rock
Race 4: Ole Go and Splendalicious
Race 5: After Summer and Bur Dubai
Race 6: Sabaj
Race 10: Buccleuch and Cash
