Racelab’s Matt Collum has assessed the Melbourne Cup contenders using Racelab’s ratings system, weighing up their recent performances, handicap weights and likely suitability.

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The following preview assesses lead-up form, class, stamina, weight and suitability for the 3200m at Flemington, incorporating Racelab ratings and individual ratings-profile appeal.

In The Lab | Melbourne Cup | Group 1 Handicap 3200m Flemington

Expecting a strong tempo in the Melbourne Cup with Wine Dark Sea, Royal Supremacy, Kizlyar and Future History all capable of pushing forward. Enfjaar and So You Are have drawn favourably to settle in the leading division. Point Of Law should be able to find a prominent position from barrier 9 without necessarily having to lead. Future History and Juja Kibo look likely to settle just behind the speed, with Trustyourinstinct, Hopewell Rock and Shockletz expected to be ridden quietly from wide barriers. There appears sufficient pressure from the wide gates to ensure a genuine tempo, which should give the proven stayers and horses with strong sustained finishes their opportunity. A truly run two miles would suit Point Of Law, Trustyourinstinct and Hopewell Rock.

2026 Melbourne Cup – Runner-by-Runner Preview

1. Sons And Lovers – Joseph O’Brien / Dylan Browne McMonagle – 57.5kg – Barrier 3

A well-travelled international stayer with strong credentials, having won the Group 2 Red Sea Turf Handicap over 3000m in Riyadh in February and the Group 2 Prix de Nieuil over 2800m at Longchamp in July. Finished fourth in the Dubai Gold Cup over 3200m before placing second in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes at Leopardstown last start. Has demonstrated his staying ability and handles different conditions, but faces a significant weight assignment as topweight. Equicast first time is a negative however Winkers going on will help.

2. Trustyourinstinct – Joseph O’Brien / James McDonald – 57kg – Barrier 18

One of the leading international chances, having won the Group 2 Curragh Cup over 2816m before finishing fourth in the Irish St Leger. He has previously won over 3200m and brings the stamina credentials required for this assignment. A backmarker who relies on a strong finish, he should appreciate a genuinely run race, although barrier 18 makes the task more difficult. James McDonald is a significant booking and he remains a major contender despite the wide gate. Definitely have him as a winning result.

3. Knight’s Choice – John Symons & Sheila Laxon / Robbie Dolan – 56.5kg – Barrier 2

The 2024 Melbourne Cup winner returns seeking another upset, having shown signs of improvement with a third in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes before finishing 14th in the Caulfield Cup. His Herbert Power effort was encouraging, beaten just 0.21 lengths, but he failed to make an impression in the Caulfield Cup when the race was run at a moderate tempo. Has the proven 3200m credentials, but carries 5kg more than his winning weight in 2024. Can’t have.

4. Middle Earth – Ciaron Maher / Mark Zahra – 56.5kg – Barrier 1

Finished third in last year’s Melbourne Cup and again looks capable of producing a competitive performance. His ninth in the Caulfield Cup was better than the result suggests, making significant late ground in a race that favoured those closer to the speed. He subsequently finished eighth in the Cox Plate, but the return to a handicap and the 3200m are positives. I like the Cox Plate form but don’t think he’s going well enough to win this.

5. Vauban – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / Jordan Childs – 56.5kg – Barrier 22

A veteran of previous Melbourne Cups, finishing sixth last year after earlier disappointing attempts. Showed he retained plenty of ability with a third in the Group 1 Tancred Stakes over 2400m in the autumn, but his first-up ninth in the Geelong Cup was below expectations. Will strip fitter second-up and has previously won the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup over 3319m, so stamina is not a concern. However, barrier 22 and the weight make this a difficult assignment. Looking elsewhere.

6. Enfjaar – Roger Varian / Ray Dawson – 56kg – Barrier 8

Produced a solid Australian debut when third in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, travelling close to the speed and sticking on well behind the placegetters. Previously finished third in the Group 3 Glorious Stakes over 2400m at Goodwood, confirming his staying potential. Drawn well and should settle in a handy position, but the 3200m remains an unknown having never raced beyond 2414m. Needs to demonstrate that he can sustain his effort over the extra distance. Equicast goes on for the first time. Prepared to risk him with a big weight.

7. Royal Supremacy – Ciaron Maher / Ben Allen – 56kg – Barrier 21

Has some strong Australian form on his record, including a Group 1 Metropolitan victory over 2400m at Randwick last year and a Group 2 Q22 win at Eagle Farm in June. However, his latest Caulfield Cup effort was disappointing, weakening to finish 15th after controlling a slow tempo in front. Has previously shown he can handle staying distances, but barrier 21 and the latest performance are concerns. He was unwanted in betting at the Caulfield Cup and ran accordingly. Up 5kg from last year. Not interested.

8. Wine Dark Sea – Harry Charlton / Damian Lane – 56kg – Barrier 23

His Australian debut in the Caulfield Cup was disappointing, finishing 11th after working hard from a wide barrier to race outside the leader. He should derive fitness from that run, but barrier 23 presents another challenge. Has shown staying ability overseas, although he needs to improve significantly on his Caulfield Cup performance. Concussion Plates and Equicast aren’t a good sign. He needs to improve however isn’t the worst chance at odds.

9. Asterix – Chris Waller / Jye McNeil – 55kg – Barrier 6

A former New Zealand Derby winner who has established a solid record in Australia, including a Group 3 Tattersall’s Cup victory over 2400m at Eagle Farm in June. Has previously finished fourth in the Auckland Cup over 3200m, which provides some encouragement for this assignment. His recent spring form has been moderate, however, finishing 12th in the Caulfield Cup after running last in the Turnbull Stakes. The question is whether his form measures up against the stronger international runners and he doesn’t have the ratings to win this.

10. Goodie Two Shoes – Joseph O’Brien / Wayne Lordan – 55kg – Barrier 19

Runner-up in last year’s Melbourne Cup after producing an excellent staying performance from barrier 20. Has since added the Group 2 Lillie Langtry Stakes over 2816m at Goodwood to her record, carrying 61kg and demonstrating her ability to sustain a strong finish over staying distances. Her previous Flemington performance is a significant positive, although she rises from 51.5kg last year to 55kg this time. Barrier 19 is another obstacle, but she has the credentials to be competitive again.

11. Juja Kibo – Ciaron Maher / Sam Clipperton – 55kg – Barrier 14

Arrives in outstanding form after consecutive Group 2 victories in The Metropolitan over 2400m at Randwick and the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. His latest win was particularly impressive, coming from back in the field to produce a sharp finishing burst and defeat Kings Valley. Has developed into a genuine staying contender this preparation, although his previous attempt over 3200m resulted in a ninth in the Sydney Cup. He’s coming out of two slowly run races and the handicapper hasn’t missed him. Really think he’s under the odds.

12. Hopewell Rock – George Boughey / Zac Lloyd – 54.5kg – Barrier 15

A major chance at the weights, Hopewell Rock arrives after finishing second in the Ebor Handicap over 2800m after the rider dropped the whip. He had earlier defeated Small Fry at Goodwood, with that form receiving a further boost when Small Fry finished strongly behind Point Of Law in the Geelong Cup. His ratings profile suggests he has a strong and consistent base, and 54.5kg gives him an opportunity to make his presence felt. Barrier 15 is not ideal, but he has the stamina and form to be right in the finish. His ratings profile sets up nicely and is one of the key chances.

13. Onesmoothoperator – Tim Fitzsimmons / Declan Bates – 54.5kg – Barrier 13

A proven stayer who has previously won the Group 3 Geelong Cup over 2400m and the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Has also won over 3319m in Britain, so the distance is not a concern. However, his two previous Melbourne Cup appearances have resulted in 12th and 16th, while his recent form has been disappointing, finishing ninth in the Herbert Power before running 11th in the Geelong Cup. Needs to rediscover his best form. If he wins then I won’t.

14. Soul Of Spain – Chris Waller / Tommy Berry – 54.5kg – Barrier 5

Has genuine staying credentials, highlighted by his second in the Group 1 Sydney Cup over 3200m in April, when he made significant ground from the back to be beaten just 0.26 lengths. His recent form has been mixed, finishing seventh in The Metropolitan before running eighth in the Caulfield Cup after making a mid-race move to the lead. The return to 3200m is a major positive and barrier 5 gives Tommy Berry the opportunity to settle closer without spending too much early. A potential improver at odds.

15. Zahrann – Ciaron Maher / Ben Melham – 54.5kg – Barrier 11

Produced a sound effort in the Caulfield Cup, finishing sixth after enjoying a relatively economical run midfield on the fence. Previously won the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes over 2000m at Caulfield, displaying a good turn of foot, but the step to 3200m is a significant query. His best staying reference overseas was a Listed victory over 2414m at Leopardstown. Drawn reasonably and carries a workable weight, but needs to prove his stamina. Blinkers go on for the first time and he can run a race at odds.

16. So You Are – Bjorn Baker / Rachel King – 54kg – Barrier 7

The progressive local stayer arrives on the back of four consecutive victories, including the Group 3 Colin Stephen Handicap over 2400m, the Group 3 St Leger over 2600m and the Group 3 Bendigo Cup over 2400m. His Bendigo Cup victory was particularly impressive, settling behind a genuine tempo before taking control in the straight and proving too strong. Gets into the Melbourne Cup with 54kg and has a favourable draw. The 3200m is an unknown, but his current form and staying profile make him a serious chance.

17. Future History – Greg Hickman / Jamie Melham – 53.5kg – Barrier 12

An experienced stayer who has previously won the Listed Bagot Handicap over 2800m at Flemington and the Listed Christmas Cup over 2400m at Randwick. Finished fourth in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes earlier this preparation before running ninth in the Moonee Valley Cup. Has shown an ability to handle staying distances and gets a reasonable weight, but his recent form does not suggest he is racing at the level required to win a Melbourne Cup.

18. James J Braddock – Joseph O’Brien / Craig Williams – 53.5kg – Barrier 24

A lightly raced international who announced himself with a third in the Group 1 Epsom Derby over 2420m in June. Previously won the Group 3 Derby Trial at Leopardstown, confirming his class as a young staying prospect. His subsequent efforts have been disappointing, finishing sixth in the Irish Derby before another sixth in the Group 3 Kilternan Stakes after being gelded. Carries an attractive weight, but has yet to race beyond 2420m and barrier 24 makes his task particularly difficult.

19. Kizlyar – Joseph O’Brien / Beau Mertens – 53.5kg – Barrier 20

A genuine staying prospect who secured his place in the field following the withdrawal of stablemate Defiantly. His overseas form includes a victory in the Ascot Stakes over 4013m at Royal Ascot in June, demonstrating his ability to handle extreme staying distances. Also won over 2816m at Killarney before finishing second in the Group 3 St Leger Trial at the Curragh. His Australian debut in the Moonee Valley Cup was disappointing, weakening to finish 11th after racing prominently. Needs to improve significantly, but his stamina is unquestioned.

20. Point Of Law – Ciaron Maher / Ethan Brown – 53kg – Barrier 9

Top pick.

A progressive British import who has made an immediate impression in Australia, winning the Group 3 Geelong Cup on debut after a three-month break. Showed plenty of determination after working hard early to race outside the leader before taking control in the straight and holding off his rivals. Previously won a Group 3 over 2615m at Newmarket in July, giving him a strong staying foundation. Gets into the Melbourne Cup with just 53kg, has the right profile for further improvement and draws ideally in barrier 9. A major winning chance.

21. Strictly Business – Thomas Carberry / Dean Yendall – 53kg – Barrier 4

The 2025 VRC Oaks winner gets her opportunity in the Melbourne Cup after a mixed preparation. Her Oaks victory over 2500m at Flemington demonstrated her staying potential, while she subsequently finished second in the Group 1 South Australian Derby over 2500m. Her recent form has been poor, however, with three disappointing runs leading into this assignment, including a last-start 16th. The light weight and inside draw are positives, but she needs a significant turnaround.

22. Mr Monaco – Ciaron Maher / Jabez Johnstone – 52.5kg – Barrier 16

Has produced some strong staying performances this preparation, winning the Group 3 Manion Cup over 2400m at Rosehill before securing a ballot-free entry with victory in the Group 3 Bart Cummings over 2520m at Flemington. Followed that with a solid third in the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m, beaten less than a length by Juja Kibo. Has clearly handled Flemington well, but his previous attempt over 3200m resulted in an 11th in the Sydney Cup. The light weight is attractive, although he needs to prove he can run the two miles. Worth throwing in exotics.

23. Zakouma – Grahame Begg / William Pike – 52kg – Barrier 10

A durable stayer who secured his Melbourne Cup position with victory in the Listed Andrew Ramsden over 2800m at Flemington in May. Subsequently finished fifth in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes, making good late ground after settling near the rear. His latest run was a last-place finish over 1600m, which was likely designed to top up his fitness. Gets in with just 52kg and has the services of William Pike, but the class of opposition represents a significant step up. Not out of this race.

24. Shockletz – Ciaron Maher / Harry Coffey – 51kg – Barrier 17

A lightly weighted staying mare who has shown plenty of ability this preparation, winning the Group 3 Archer Stakes over 2500m at Flemington in September. Subsequently finished sixth in the Herbert Power Stakes before flashing home for second in a 2040m Flemington race last start. Her sire Shocking won the 2009 Melbourne Cup, providing an appealing staying pedigree. The 51kg is a major advantage, but she has never raced beyond 2500m and faces a substantial rise in distance. She’s beaten the handicapper and Harry Coffey has miraculously recovered to take the ride. One of the top hopes.

Our rated market

The JTD represents the minimum numeric rating a horse must achieve to win a given race. Instead of looking backward at what a horse has done, the JTD looks forward to establish the mathematical baseline required to win under the specific conditions of that day’s race