The track – unique features of Caulfield 1600m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Good 4
- On pacers have an advantage at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 10.8%
- Backmarkers are losing at 17% POT
- Lane 2 is performing best with a 2% POT. Coming wider than lane 4 is very difficult
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting an even tempo (see image below):
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Nick Ryan and Declan Bates are returning 56.7% POT from their last 100 races.
- Matt Laurie and Mark Zahra are also very profitable with 30.1% ROI.
- High profile jockeys Damian Lane and Blake Shinn are riding their horses for the first time (Autumn Boy and Nepotism).
- Jamie Melham is riding Navy Pilot again.
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Caulfield Guineas. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried:
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 12/10/24 | Private Life 3C | 57.0kg | 0.15L | 105.2 |
| 14/10/23 | Griff 3C | 57.0kg | 1.75L | 107.1 |
| 08/10/22 | Golden Mile 3C | 57.0kg | 0.2L | 102.9 |
| 09/10/21 | Anamoe 3C | 57.0kg | 0.5L | 105.5 |
| 10/10/20 | Ole Kirk 3C | 56.5kg | 0.4L | 105.2 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Caulfield Guineas:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas:
| Weight | Rating |
| 57.0kg | 104.4 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:
| Horse | Rated Price | Market |
|---|---|---|
| RIVELLINO | 39 | 23 |
| WODETON | 5.4 | 3.9 |
| VINROCK | 4.5 | 7 |
| NEPOTISM | 29 | 16 |
| WEST OF SWINDON | 19 | 14 |
| VEGA FOR LUCK (NZ) | 161 | 41 |
| HIGHVOL | 55 | 31 |
| NAVY PILOT | 19 | 11 |
| AUTUMN BOY | 4.5 | 4 |
| SPACE RIDER | 55 | 34 |
| PRESTIGE OLE | 231 | 126 |
| HILLIER | 55 | 67 |
| STAY COSMIC | 79 | 51 |
| PLANET RED | 39 | 20 |
| ROMANTIC ENCOUNTER | 39 | 23 |
| OBSERVER | 32 | 35 |
The verdict and betting strategy:
They should run along at an even tempo here and it appears Vinrock will have to press forward from the wide draw to settle on speed. Under set weight conditions, Wodeton and Vinrock are ideally suited considering they would normally give plenty of weight to these in handicap races. The formline from the Golden Rose looks the strongest, however Wodeton enjoyed a dream run and Autumn Boy had excuses. You are getting a short price to be with either of them here. Vinrock has the best SP profile in this field – he’s never started over $3.8 in all six career starts! I like the fact he has a run over the mile under his belt now and should be peaking fourth up.
Suggested Bet:
Vinrock (WIN)
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
