Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 6 – (7) Charming Deel
Next Best: Race 9 – (4) Somersault
Turf Talk
- The track is currently rated a Heavy 8, but there is clear weather forecast. Despite the weather, the cool conditions will likely make it hard for this track to dry, so expect a heavy-rated surface.
- The rail returns to the True position for the first time since late May.
- Expect the track to play fairly in the heavy conditions, with runners capable of winning from a variety of positions in the run if good enough.
Stats that matter
- The recent form of Jabez Johnstone is hard to ignore, with the apprentice flying at a winning strike rate of 28% from his last 100 rides and returning a POT of +33.7%.
- Lachy Neindorf’s recent form has been tougher, with nine wins from his last 100 rides and a POT of -38.3%, but he has produced a positive return of +14.7% at this track.
- Pat Kearney’s stable has been consistent of late, recording 17 wins from its last 100 runners and a healthy POT of +39.1%.
Race 6
(7) Charming Deel is knocking on the door for a win having run second in both of her last two starts and she looks suited in these conditions with a strong record on wet tracks and a positive jockey booking should land her in an ideal position to give her the breakthrough. (2) Omnic is in strong form having won his past two and is now dropping slightly in grade for this, will have to handle a big weight today but looks likely to be positive in the run which will help. (4) Amphactor has placed in his last two and looks suited rising in distance for this today, he maps softly from barrier two which could see him settle closer to the lead today. (12) Miss Trustful is a last-start winner at this track in similar conditions and now rises in grade. She has a strong record in wet conditions and could be capable of a repeat performance to last start in a similar set-up.
Selections
(7) Charming Deel
(2) Omnic
(4) Amphactor
(12) Miss Trustful
Suggested Bet: (7) Charming Deel – Win
Race 9
(4) Somersault is at peak fitness now third-up into this prep, she was a winner at this track and distance set-up first-up and ticked the heavy-track box that day so is suited in this set-up she has a wide barrier to deal with but has the speed to cross early. (1) Ania has been in strong form this prep, she recently won two in a row before a pair of placings when contesting races up in grade in her last two. She is suited dropping back down in grade today and capable of handling a wet track. She has to handle a big weight but gets some relief from an apprentice can help. (5) Cosmic Grace finished worse than midfield when resuming at Ballarat recently but has improvement to give getting off the synthetic surface and rising in distance will suit. (12) Tuxedo Miss gets ideal wet conditions where she has a good record and if she can overcome a wide barrier, she can run well at odds in this set up
Selections
(4) Somersault
(1) Ania
(5) Cosmic Grace
(12) Tuxedo Miss
Suggested Bet: (4) Somersault – Win
