Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Group 1 Coolmore Stakes using their ratings system assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s $2 million Group 1 sprint.
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In The Lab | Coolmore Stud Stakes | Set weights 3yo Group 1 1200m
The track – unique features of Flemington 1200m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Good 4
- Lanes 3-7 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
- Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable position in run. Leaders are disadvantaged
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a good tempo here with a few on-pacers engaged
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Peter Snowden and Blake Shinn are winning returning 207% ROI with a 40% S/R
- Chris Waller is returning 30% ROI from his last 100 runners
- Ashley Morgan is winning at 21% S/R with POT of 23%
- Runners Skyhook, Jimmy Recard and Beadman all have new jockeys for the first time (Craig Williams, Ben Allen and Blake Shinn)
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Coolmore Stud Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried, hence In Secret and September Run – as fillies – produced a lower Racelab rating due to the adjustment for carrying 55kg.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 02/11/24 | Switzerland 3C | 57.0kg | 2.75L | 107.8 |
| 04/11/23 | Ozzmosis 3C | 57.0kg | 1.25L | 106.8 |
| 29/10/22 | In Secret 3F | 55.0kg | 2.0L | 104.5 |
| 30/10/21 | Home Affairs 3C | 57.0kg | 3.0L | 107.5 |
| 31/10/20 | September Run 3F | 55.0kg | 1.75L | 104.4 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Coolmore Stud Stakes:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Coolmore Stud Stakes:
| Weight | Rating |
| 57.0kg | 102.8 |
| 55.0kg | 101.2 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price
| Horse | Rated Price | Market |
| Beiwacht | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| Mcgaw | 61 | 34 |
| Tentyris | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Tycoon Star | 159 | 61 |
| Skyhook | 11.6 | 12 |
| Hidden Motive | 38 | 23 |
| Raging Force | 15 | 9.5 |
| Jimmy Recard | 99 | 41 |
| Legacy Bound | 38 | 19 |
| Beadman | 3.9 | 5 |
| Skyglider | 38 | 19 |
| My Gladiola | 17 | 11 |
The verdict and betting strategy:
They should run along at a decent clip here with Hidden Motive, Raging Force, Mcgaw likely to take up leading positions. The blue army has a strong hand in the Coolmore with Beiwacht running a career peak 108 in the Golden Rose and Tentyris running 105+ when winning the Gothic Stakes after savaging the line. Beadman was a tragedy beaten in the Roman Consul Stakes with a rating of 104+ and comes here ready to peak third-up. With Blake Shinn doing the steering he gets a lovely map and should be finding the ideal ground out wide from barrier 8 and exploding late. Skyhook is another horse I can see improving here but has a tricky draw from gate 2.
Suggested Bet:
Beadman (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
