Matt Collum from Racelab has run the rule over the 2025 edition of the Golden Rose. The preview includes a speed map, likely rating required to win the race, market to 100% and a verdict. And, Matt is keen to bet around the favourite.
The track – unique features of Rosehill 1400m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Good 4
- On Pacers have an advantage at Rosehill with a win strike rate of 11.9%
- Horses settling midfield and back are losing above 12% ROI
- Lane 1 is performing best with a win strike rate of 14.4% and ROI of 24.8%
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting an even tempo (see image below):
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- James McDonald rides Wodeton again. He’s ridden him four times previously for one win and three seconds.
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Golden Rose. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried. It’s worth noting that only two filles have won the race previously, Forensics in 2008 and Dandify in 2000.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 28/09/24 | Broadsiding 3C | 56.5kg | 0.1L | 104.8 |
| 23/09/23 | Militarize 3C | 56.5kg | 0.1L | 103.5 |
| 24/09/22 | Jacquinot 3C | 56.5kg | 0.2L | 104.5 |
| 25/09/21 | In The Congo 3C | 56.5kg | 0.2L | 104.6 |
| 26/09/20 | Ole Kirk 3C | 56.5kg | 0.2L | 104.1 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Golden Rose:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Golden Rose:
| Weight | Rating |
| 56.5kg | 103.8 |
| 54.5kg | 102.0 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:
| Runner | Racelab Rated Price | Current Market as at Wednesday 3pm |
| BEIWACHT | 10.6 | 9 |
| NEPOTISM | 25 | 15 |
| SKYHOOK | 4.1 | 6 |
| WODETON | 5.5 | 5 |
| STATE VISIT | 93 | 61 |
| RIVELLINO | 60 | 34 |
| AUTUMN BOY | 6.9 | 5.5 |
| SIXTIES | 16.3 | 15 |
| TEMPTED | 4.9 | 3.2 |
The verdict and betting strategy:
Only a small field of nine assemble for the Golden Rose but there is still plenty of depth. Beiwacht and Sixties will set the tempo up front at a genuine pace. Position in run is key and both Wodeton and Skyhook map to get lovely runs throughout. There are only two formlines to consider, the Run To The Rose and the Dynasty Quality. The Run To The Rose appears the strongest with Skyhook running on strongly. The step up to 1400m will suit and he’s fitter now third up. Hard to beat. Wodeton gets the blinkers and J Mac, but has been costly for punters. Tempted was impressive first up but had a perfect run and ride. She will have a tougher task from barrier 8. Autumn Boy loves 1400m but the map is tricky and he will need his best.
Suggested Bet:
Skyhook WIn
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
