In The Lab: 2025 Melbourne Cup

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the $10 mil Melbourne Cup using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s staying feature. 

To learn more about Racelab, please click here.

In The Lab |  Group 1 3200m

The track – unique features of course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Rail Out 2m Entire Circuit
• Soft 7 likely
• Lanes 3-7 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
• Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable position in run
• With wet weather around, you wouldn’t be surprised to see inside barriers disadvantaged

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a moderate tempo here with few on-pacers engaged:

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Mark Zahra is in peak form and rides topweight Al Riffa for the first time
• Craig Williams, Damian Lane, James McDonald, Joao Moreira, Tim Clark, Harry Coffey, Michael Dee, Declan Bates and Wayne Lordan are all riding their chances for the first time
• Brian Ellison is returning a mammoth 350% ROI
• Hisashi Shimizu and Damian Lane are winning at 345% ROI

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Melbourne Cup. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried, hence Knight’s Choice – as a 5yo Gelding – produced a lower Racelab rating due to the adjustment for him carrying 51.5kg.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Melbourne Cup:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price

The verdict and betting strategy:

Al Riffa: JTD 114.5. High profile runner coming off two strong wins at Curragh over 2800m. He brings the highest ratings from all the international hopes and Zahra jumps on. 114 seems a fair mark for him with 59kg.

Buckaroo: JTD 112.6. Right in contention last run in the Cox Plate and going back up in trip. Yet to win beyond 1800m and goes up 2.5kg from last year. Wet track will be in his favour but seems short enough.

Arapaho: JTD 112. Sydney Cup winner. Backs up quickly from excuses in the Bendigo Cup and returning to a rise in trip. He’s quite a few lengths below his best this prep and has a big task ahead.

Vauban: JTD 112. Didn’t attack the line when beaten over 8L last start in the Caulfield Cup. Has some gear changes and Shinn sticks but needs to lift.

Chevalier Rose: JTD 110.9. Chevalier Rose’s recent ratings are well below his best so he’s clearly struggling. It’s not the ideal profile for winning a Melbourne Cup.

Presage Nocturne: JTD 110.9. Another promising stayer who ran a new ratings peak of 109.3 in the Caulfield Cup (with the fastest last 200m sectional in the race as well). He has certainly put his hand up as a genuine chance after that run and is looming as a big danger.

Middle Earth: JTD 109.5. Made some late ground when 3rd last start in the Jra Cup rating 105. The step up in distance suits and he could run a handy race at odds.

Meydaan: JTD 108.9. Ran 104 in the Caulfield Cup (running the third fastest last 200m section in the race) after sitting wide on an unsuitable tight track. The step up to 3200 should suit and gains the services of James McDonald. Definitely worth considering.

Absurde: JTD 108.2. Absurde ran a new peak of 105.4 last start in the Caulfield Cup. He did enjoy a lovely run throughout from barrier 1 settling next to the winner Half Yours. He will have to improve again to be competitive which is hard to achieve as an 8yo. Pass.

Flatten The Curve: JTD 108.2. Henk Grewe has got this horse to a new level winning six out of the last seven starts. His only recent defeat was on a dirt track at Saratoga after the turf meeting was transferred. He must measure up against a strong field however the distance is ideal and can handle the going. Must be considered.

Land Legend: JTD 108.2. He’s been struggling out of the gates the last few runs and has a habit of racing too keen. Hasn’t shown enough lately to suggest a big run here.

Smokin’ Romans: JTD 108.2. Pulled up lame in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup which is a poor form race and may find these too slick as a 9yo.

Changingoftheguard: JTD 107.6. On-pacer drawn wide stepping up to 3200m for the first time. Comes out of a weak form race – the Geelong Cup – with a performance rating of 100 and will struggle against these.

Half Yours: JTD 107.6. Was heavily backed in the Caulfield Cup and won accordingly after a perfect ride from Jamie Melham. Must run the distance but can get through the ground and is in top form.

More Felons: JTD 107.6. Has won over the distance twice in jumps. Rated 102 in a slowly run St Leger at Randwick and doesn’t appear to be a threat.

Onesmoothoperator: JTD 107.6. Was right in the Melbourne Cup market last year $12 – $7.5 when hitting peak form at the right time. Produced a 105 first up when winning the Moonee Valley Cup and running the second fastest last 200 of the day! The wet weather is a big concern, and his ratings profile has produced the best figures when kept fresh. Prepared to risk.

Furthur: JTD 106.4. Lightly raced Northern Hemisphere 3yo. Furthur has been racing well this preparation and has plenty of upside with only eight career starts. He showed a nice turn of foot when winning the Geoffrey Freer Stakes and has the ability to improve over more ground.

Parchment Party. JTD 106.4. Parchment Party hit a new peak of 110.6 when winning the Belmont Gold Cup on a dirt track. Hard to seriously consider him on form and turf.

Athabascan. JTD 105.8. Close up behind Onesmoothoperator at big odds in the Moonee Valley Cup however that form looks questionable. The draw isn’t ideal and will need a lot of luck.

Goodie Two Shoes. JTD 105.8. She’s a mare in form with some handy ratings over two miles. Certainly a good chance on ratings and nicely weighted. Concussion Plates are a concern but isn’t out of this.

River Of Stars: JTD 105.8. Ran on solidly from a fast tempo in the Caulfield Cup and kept going through the line. Goes down 2kg here and has the ratings to win.

Royal Supremacy: JTD 105.3. Metropolitan winner who followed that up with a 5th in the Caulfield Cup. Had a lovely run last start and is a query at the distance. Chance.

Torranzino: JTD 105.3. Won the Geelong Cup rating 102 for his second Group 3 win. Makes his debut run at Group 1 level and will appreciate the going but must find a few lengths.

Valiant King: JTD 105.3 Followed up his dominant win in the Bart Cummings (103) with a slashing third in the Caulfield Cup rating 105. Has been set for this race and should run well.

Here we go for the race that stops a nation! Not much pace on paper with Smokin’ Romans and Changingoftheguard likely to settle 1-2 in the run. The weather has certainly thrown a spanner in the works this year so we are definitely going to be racing on a rain affected deck. There are a number of genuine chances which shapes up as an interesting betting affair! I don’t want to get carried away backing all of the overs and there is some uncertaintly about the weather as well. Happy to play small on some roughies.

Suggested Bet:

Flatten The Curve (WIN)
Furthur (WIN)
River Of Stars (WIN)

Legend: