Matt Collum from Racelab has run the rule over the 2025 edition of the Moir Stakes and found a runner at double figure odds that he thinks represents some value.
In The Lab | Moir Stakes | Group 1 WFA 1000m
The track – unique features of Valley 1000m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Soft 5
- Historically inside barriers (1-3) are underperforming market expectations (-10.7% ROI for horses settling on speed).
- Inside lanes are significantly advantaged with the rail in true position (lane 1 with 8.7% ROI and lane 2 with 7.2% ROI respectively).
- It’s definitely hard to make a looping run at the Valley.
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a strong tempo here with plenty of on speed runners engaged (see image below):
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Shane Nichols and Hayden Black have a current ROI of 36.5%.
- Blake Shinn jumps back aboard Oak Hill. Shinn has won twice on the gelding.
- Jamie Melham rides Esha for the first time. She won an impressive jump-out with her on 27/8.
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Moir Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried, hence Coolangatta – as a 3YO filly – produced a lower Racelab rating due to the adjustment for her carrying 50kg. That is further relevant this year as we think about Shane Nichols’ filly Esha.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 07/09/24 | Mornington Glory 6G | 58.5kg | 0.5L | 110.1 |
| 29/09/23 | Imperatriz 5M | 56.5kg | 1.25L | 110.0 |
| 23/09/22 | Coolangatta 3F | 50kg | 0.2L | 104.3 |
| 24/09/21 | Wild Ruler 4H | 58.5kg | 0.1L | 110.4 |
| 25/09/20 | Pippie 5M | 56.5kg | 0.75L | 109.5 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Moir:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Moir.
| Weight | Rating |
| 58.5kg | 110.5 |
| 56.5kg | 108.7 |
| 52kg | 105.4 |
| 50kg | 104 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price (i.e. Arabian Summer).
| Runner | Racelab Rated Price | Current Market as at Thursday 7pm |
| Rothfire | $27 | $14 |
| Midwest | $84 | $41 |
| Payline | $117 | $51 |
| Golden Boom | $70 | $35 |
| Queman | $58 | $51 |
| Baraqiel | $6.2 | $6 |
| Sir Sway | $81 | $81 |
| Oak Hill | $15 | $23 |
| Arabian Summer | $9.5 | $23 |
| Skybird | $14 | $9.5 |
| Alabama Lass | $6.5 | $4 |
| Niance | $14 | $6.5 |
| La Dorada | $15 | $23 |
| Esha | $5.1 | $4.8 |
The verdict and betting strategy:
With a likely strong tempo in the Moir Stakes, it does look like a few of these leaders will be getting tired late. In early markets, there isn’t much value around the top chances so I’m happy to be with one at a price here.
Arabian Summer is a genuine 1000m horse and the camp have been hoping for some rain, which arrived today. She should get a lovely run from the inside draw and can take a sit on the fence behind a strong speed. Esha, Baraqiel and Alabama Lass are all main hopes but seem skinny enough at the price. Plenty of other chances in a wide open betting affair.
Suggested Bet:
Arabian Summer each way
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
