Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Railway Stakes using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race.
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In The Lab | Railway Stakes | Group 1 Handicap 1600m
The track – unique features of Ascot course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail Out 5m, Soft 5
- Lanes 2-4 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
- Settling on speed is the most profitable position in run
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a good tempo here over the mile:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Reece Jones is winning at 17% S/R with a healthy POT of 37.6%
- Annabel & Rob Archibald have a POT of 24.8% from their last 100 races
- Grant & Alana Williams combined with Billy Egan boast a massive 238% POT
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Railway Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 23/11/24 | Port Lockroy 4H | 53.0kg | 0.7L | 103.7 |
| 25/11/23 | Bustler 4G | 53.0kg | 1.0L | 104.3 |
| 19/11/22 | Trix Of The Trade 4G | 53.0kg | 1.7L | 105.4 |
| 20/11/21 | Western Empire 4G | 53.0kg | 4.0L | 107.3 |
| 21/11/20 | Inspirational Girl 5M | 53.0kg | 0.4L | 104.8 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Railway Stakes:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.
| Weight | Rating |
| 58.0kg | 108.0 |
| 57.5kg | 107.6 |
| 56.5kg | 106.7 |
| 56.0kg | 106.2 |
| 55.0kg | 105.2 |
| 54.5kg | 104.7 |
| 54.0kg | 104.2 |
| 53.5kg | 103.8 |
| 53.0kg | 103.3 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
*Assuming the emergencies don’t run. Cosmic Crusader is the only winning hope but won’t gain a start.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Full field of sixteen runners and four emergencies in the Railway Stakes! Speed looks decent with Comfort Me, Ginger Baker and Sentimental Hero pushing forward from the outset. Looking at the lead up races, I’m wanting to avoid horses coming out of the Lee Steere Stakes – they walked early and sprinted home to run a very slow overall time. Western Empire comes out of the Lee Steere Stakes and Pike comes off. He will have a task from gate 1 behind runners. Osipenko was solid winning the Little Dance with 62kg however his best runs are on softer ground. Watch Me Rock was ridden to perfection in the Asian Beau Stakes and should be thereabouts however he seems skinny enough and will have a lot more pressure here. Diamond Scene won the Eurythmic Stakes after working outside the leader throughout – he maps to get a lovely run again by Clint Johnston-Porter and will appreciate the step up in distance. Depth Of Character comes out of a strong form race in the Golden Eagle and will be doing his best work late – just needs to find some cover from the wide draw.
Suggested Bet:
Diamond Scene (WIN)
Depth Of Character (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
