The track – unique features of Caulfield 1400m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail +6m, Good 4
- On pacers have an advantage at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 10.7%
- Backmarkers are losing at 17% POT
- Lane 2 is performing best with a 1% POT. Coming wider than lane 4 is very difficult
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting an above even tempo (see image below):
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Cliff Brown is returning 64.5% POT from his last 100 runners
- Celine Gaudray is outperforming expectations with 29.1% POT for her last 100 rides
- Daniel Bowman and Patrick Moloney have a 25% S/R with a healthy 184% ROI
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried, hence Kimochi – as a 4YO mare– produced a lower Racelab rating due to the adjustment for her carrying 52.5kg. Behemoth is the only winner to ever carry 60kg hence why his rating of 110.5 is so high.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 16/11/24 | Kimochi 4M | 52.5kg | 0.5L | 107.5 |
| 18/11/23 | Magic Time 4M | 53.5kg | 1.0L | 107.2 |
| 17/09/22 | Callsign Mav 5G | 57.5kg | 0.2L | 107.5 |
| 18/09/21 | Sierra Sue 5G | 52.5kg | 0.1L | 106.7 |
| 19/09/20 | Behemoth 5G | 60.0kg | 1.0L | 110.5 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes:
| Weight | Rating |
| 59.0kg | 111.5 |
| 58.0kg | 110.8 |
| 56.5kg | 109.5 |
| 56.0kg | 109.1 |
| 54.5kg | 107.6 |
| 53.5kg | 106.7 |
| 52.0kg | 105.5 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:
The verdict and betting strategy:
With a genuine tempo expected, getting the right run is going to be crucial. Angel Capital and Sepals lead up the betting but they both map poorly from wide gates. It will take a big run from them to chase the field down. Arkansaw Kid gets a lovely map after winning the Bobbie Lewis last week. Miss Roumbini’s run was enormous first-up and she’s unbeaten second-up. Hopefully she finds some cover. Chorlton Lane gets the blinkers first time and savaged the line last start. Is It Me can improve here third up on the minimum. Happy to play a few here at odds.
Suggested Bet:
Arkansaw Kid (40% stake)
Miss Roumbini (30% stake)
Chorlton Lane (20% stake)
Is it Me (10% stake)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
