In The Lab: 2025 The Everest

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Everest using their ratings system assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this years $20 million feature sprint. 

To learn more about Racelab, please click here. 

The track – unique features of the Randwick 1200m course, who is advantaged and disadvantaged based on where they settle.

• Rail +3m Soft 5
• Showers and Storm predicted for Friday
• Inside barriers 1-3 are most advantaged returning a POT of 7%
• Barriers 8+ are significantly disadvanteged losing 32% POT
• 58.8% of winners settle in the first four positions in run (PIR) at the 400m

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a fast tempo (see image below):

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Ben, Will & JD Hayes are returning a huge 203.6% ROI when paired with Tim Clark
• Grahame Begg & Michael Dee have a POT of 33%
• Craig WIlliams is reunited with Tempted with a lightweight of 51kg
• Chris Waller has carefully selected his jockeys to suit their rides

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out The Everest. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried hence the 106.5 rating for Giga Kick in 2022 with only 53kg compared to Classique Lenend’s 113.5 with 58.5kg. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried:

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of The Everest:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win The Everest:

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:

The verdict and betting strategy:

The stage is set for the richest race on turf and all eyes will be on the superstar Ka Ying Rising! His last five ratings are all clear of required rating to win this race. I’ve marked him at 113.2 which is his average rating from the last five attempts. He’s clearly the horse to beat but seems skinny enough at $1.75 and could start much shorter on the world pool tote. There are some question marks about the travel and his trial however so I’m happy to back a couple at odds. Lady Shenandoah didn’t handle the Valley last start and has been set for this – she maps to get a lovely run and has plenty of upside. Joliestar went to a new level first up and could improve further here. Tempted is coming out of a hot form race, drops to 51kg and picks up Craig Williams who’s been in outstanding form.

Suggested Bet:

Lady Shenandoah (WIN)

Tempted (WIN)