Summary of Best Bets:
Race 5 (16) Balance The Books
Race 8 (9) Boomtown Boss
Roughie: Race 1 (1) Red Defcon
Turf Talk:
- Rail is out 1m.
- Always a very hard day, the Ipswich Cup Day, but I love it.
- Big fields on a tight track and sometimes the run of the race can still mean you can be unlucky getting a split at the right time.
- They race much tighter than what punters would be used to watching at Eagle Farm recently.
- Unfortunately, many of the horses that are well placed today have drawn poorly and that drops the confidence of a bet.
Stats that matter:
- Ryan Maloney has 8 winners from his last 50 rides and a ROI +41.2%. Interesting to note he strikes at 23.3% off his 511 rides on the track.
- Jack Bruce has trained 11 winners from his last 50 runners but a ROI -9.6%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Hate the gate for (6) Trafalgar Square but was impressed with the first-up win. Was held up and when she got clear she found another gear. Needs a good ride but in the right race.
(11) Zoustrology was a huge winner two back but beaten fair and square here last start. Does have upside and should get a sweet run in transit for Thompson from gate 4.
(1) Red Defcon has been going around against better horses than this. Don’t love the big weight but anything near her best form and she has the class to run over them late. At $41 I’m happy to have a small e/w play for an interest.
(17) Hellarious started the prep with two wins and was a solid 3rd in town last start. She can keep improving and will be one who pushes forward and maybe even lead here.
Selections:
(1) Red Defcon
(6) Trafalgar Square
(11) Zoustrology
(17) Hellarious
Suggested Bet: e/w (1) Red Defcon
Race 2:
I have some huge trust issues with these.
(4) Sosino put in his best run for a long time to win by 4.5L second-up. It was very wet that day and was he flattered or just in good form? A repeat of that wins again.
Long time between wins for (6) I’m Heroic but gets a good gate, maps well for a good jock and every chance. How much does he want it though?
(8) Koruto, (9) Piston Rebel and (14) Addition all chances but this race doesn’t interest me that much.
Selections:
(4) Sosino
(6) I’m Heroic
(14) Addition
(8) Koruto
Suggested Bet: No
Race 3:
Speed will come from (3) Ouroboros who is a leader and always finds a kick. Looked home for all money last start and was just nailed the last two strides. Will look the winner again at the 100m mark here.
Gollan has had no luck with gates for (6) Daggers (19, 16 and now 13). They have been forced to push forward and he has been racing well. Likely to sit off the leader and be the first one to pounce again here.
Like (7) Quothquan as a horse but may not be enough speed on for him to get over them late. Will go in any trifectas for me.
(1) Yes Lulu has a touch of class but 60.5kg and giving weight away to the boys is always a tough task.
(9) Set To Shine is no star but will be better for the last start run after nearly a year off.
Selections:
(6) Daggers
(3) Ouroboros
(1) Yes Lulu
(7) Quothquan
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
A lot of these raced each other last tart and (2) The Irish came out on top. Has won 2 of 3 this prep and is a horse that loves a bit of softer ground. This should still suit and can only peak 4th up on a track he loves (3:2:0:1).
(3) Pulveriser won by a space last start but I have a few questions. Why the stable change off a big win? And the field he beat wasn’t much chop.
(13) Artful Girl would win this at her best but it is actually impossible to guess what she will do, mixing form horribly these days.
Similar with (1) Rattle And Hum. Ready to show best 3rd up. Got his head to the side when things got serious 2nd up. Looks to have a few tricks and maybe the gear changes can help.
(5) Chillaxing was disappointing last start but a big winner the run before on better ground. Might have to be a bit forgiving.
Selections:
(2) The Irish
(1) Rattle And Hum
(5) Chillaxing
(3) Pulveriser
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (2) The Irish
Race 5:
Is the improving track the key to (16) Balance The Books? She hasn’t lived up to her starting price in each run this prep but I still feel she is going well. Would have loved a better gate, but Thompson rides and can win.
(11) Cindersea is one I can’t catch. She’s been all around the money but usually runner-up when I bet and winner when I jump off. Gate 1 is worth plenty in this race.
(13) Surprise Honey has been a pass mark this prep and worth some thoughts for exotic players.
Selections:
(16) Balance The Books
(11) Cindersea
(13) Surprise Honey
(6) Shot Of Whiskey
Suggested Bet: (16) Balance The Books
Race 6:
(2) Platinum Pantheon has savaged the line the last couple and looks well placed here. Only issue is how far they get back as it’s harder to make ground here than EF the last two starts.
Not sure what to do with (1) Navy Pilot. His best is very good but was beaten 6.5L last time out. Set weights suit as he is the highest rated horse in the field and like that he draws a decent gate. Might just have to be forgiving and a drier track can suit.
(5) Kohler Kid has been consistent and draws a gate where he can get a soft run in transit and not spend a penny.
(3) Call Da Vinci can be the map horse and be the first to strike on the corner.
Selections:
(1) Navy Pilot
(2) Platinum Pantheon
(3) Call Da Vinci
(5) Kohler Kid
Suggested Bet: Small (1) Navy Pilot if there is any money race day.
Race 7:
There have been some rough races and rough results in this race over the years.
(2) Miss Joelene will love the drop in grade and find this easier than what she has been racing. Big weight though and that’s a query for me.
(3) Encoder is a little beauty. He was 3rd in this race in ’24 and beaten less than a length by Athanathos last time out. Suitable trip and weight is about fair.
Not sure where (4) Belvedere Boys will land here but he has been very good all prep and set to peak after the four runs back and a run in Sydney. If he had a better race pattern he’d look a great bet. Don’t want to have to come from last but that is likely the case. He brings the best form and it might just be Bayliss getting on the back of the right horse at the right time.
(14) Cavalry Man has been flying this time in. Nice winner last start and should have won the run before that. Meets nearly every horse worse at the weights from the win but have to respect in this form.
Selections:
(4) Belvedere Boys
(3) Encoder
(14) Cavalry Man
(2) Miss Joelene
Suggested Bet: Win (4) Belvedere Boys
Race 8:
Absolute lottery here as a heap of the main chances have drawn poorly.
I have been with (9) Boomtown Boss all the way through and I don’t see a reason to jump off. Just too far back in a slow run race last time but the late splits were good. Not sure where he lands here but the tempo should be more suitable.
(2) Cifrado has been exceptional this prep, about as good as he’s ever gone. Has to lump the 60kg but if he gets clear at the right time he can reel off great sectionals.
I never thought I’d be saying (17) John Rambo could win an Eye Liner but here we are. Loves the cut out of the track and should get that. Draws to make a little use of the gate and only 53kg. Has won a trial and has a great fresh record (5:2:1:1).
(8) Melody Again has a little class and they just need to make use of the gate to sit close enough.
Selections:
(9) Boomtown Boss
(17) John Rambo
(2) Cifrado
(8) Melody Again
Suggested Bets: Something (9) Boomtown Boss
Race 9:
Good luck for those alive in the Quaddie.
(16) Silver Wedding improved all last prep and the win fresh this time in was excellent. The 1000m looked too short but she picked them up and spat them out. Will be back and need some luck here. She is the one to beat if she gets the luck at the right time.
I’ve never really been in the corner of (4) Give Giggles but she has been good this prep up on speed and expect them to push the button from out wide. Still might need a few behind to find bad luck but that’s every chance of happening.
(3) Cigar Flick mixes her form and very hard to catch. Her best is very good and I’m too scared to leave her out. The win two back was brilliant and a repeat of that can win.
Expected a touch better from (10) Naifah last start but she wasn’t poor by any means. They will be positive from the gate and should land in the first couple of pairs and out of trouble.
Selections:
(16) Silver Wedding
(3) Cigar Flick
(4) Give Giggles
(10) Naifah
Suggested Bets: No
