Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R10 (3) Casserousse
Next Best: R9 (7) Koolibah
Best Value: R2 (18) King Of The Nile
Best Roughie: R2 (15) Gridlock
Race by race overview
Race 1
Solid 3yo filly maiden to kick off proceedings here. Small field and a lack of tempo up front, this does suit the push-button filly (1) Agatha. She was smashed in betting on debut and looked the winner before stopping sharply. She resumes after 306 days off but has trialled super. (2) Artgirl has form around the talented Caffe Florian. Sticky gate but the small field does help overall. (4) Miss Supernova has been given one solid trial leading into this event, is second prep and looks to have furnished well. If here, (6) Peace Bird rounds out the numbers on the two-day backup.
Selections:
1 Agatha
2 Artgirl
4 Miss Supernova
6 Peace Bird
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Massive field for the 2yo maiden event on the program. (15) Gridlock has come up a huge price here on debut, with back-to-back eye-catching trials when really hitting his straps late. Draws smartly and has to go on top. If here, (18) King Of The Nile has to go in the mix, coming through the same trial heat as Gridlock over 745m when looking sharp. He has tactical speed also and can use the positive gate to land on speed. (12) Moscatel has trialled up well enough but looks extreme unders at $2.90. (7) Katoto has race experience and fitness on some key rivals here. In the mix.
Selections:
15 Gridlock
18 King Of The Nile
12 Moscatel
7 Katoto
Suggested Bet: Gridlock each way / King Of The Nile win
Race 3
Surprised to not see (2) Cellphone come up favourite here. Peaks fitness now up to 1550m and comes through what looks the strongest form line leading into this event. Draws well and has to start shorter with the blinkers on first time. (6) Made In Italy has been very well backed in early markets but seemed to have every possible chance last start when finding the 1-1. Strips fitter and can improve but looks short. (7) Aurora Effect has been kept up to the mark with a tick-over trial, was solid last start and is right in this. (8) Bella Wahine is next best with the blinkers going on first time.
Selections:
2 Cellphone
6 Made In Italy
7 Aurora Effect
8 Bella Wahine
Suggested Bet: Cellphone win
Race 4
Looks to be nice enough speed up front here over the 1300m. (3) Probability Theory gets a lovely run in transit from the inside draw, was a smart fresh winner and can only improve here second up. I expect McEvoy to be positive aboard (10) Lighthouse Lass, who has the race fitness edge, with four back-to-back seconds now and will be put into the race to finally break through. (8) Phyxius has looked good in back-to-back trials leading into this event. Sticky draw but does have tactical speed. (4) Horizons may be wanting further but does get a lovely setup here fresh.
Selections:
3 Probability Theory
10 Lighthouse Lass
8 Phyxius
4 Horizons
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
The Highway event for this public holiday. It does look to be (11) Lord Remlap’s race to lose on paper after a dominant fresh win, but he did want to float late over the last 50m. Up to 1300m from a good draw suits but he’ll need to improve again. (7) Speedy Henry draws out and will likely go back. Nice enough speed on up front should allow him to run on. (10) Big Opinion gets an ideal setup here from barrier 5, should land on speed and finds Clark in the saddle. (3) Xcessive Force has been very well backed in early markets. He will land on speed and comes off a sharp tick-over trial.
Selections:
11 Lord Remlap
7 Speedy Henry
10 Big Opinion
3 Xcessive Force
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Smart BM64 here with plenty of progressive types and plenty of speed up front. (9) Shady Road should get the gun run in transit from barrier 3. Love the form around Ninja last prep and liked both of his trials leading in. (8) Tuscany has race versatility but will need a peach of a ride to offset the sticky draw in barrier 9. The booking of Lloyd is key overall. (3) Virgil’s Gift is down for R10 as well, has back-to-back smart trials and a lovely SP profile, but does draw very sticky here. (6) Pasadena rounds out the numbers off a last start win.
Selections:
9 Shady Road
8 Tuscany
3 Virgil’s Gift
6 Pasadena
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Happy to put (1) No Drama on top here with no real speed to note. He gets a very similar setup to last start when winning at Rosehill and should be even better suited around a dry Kensington track. (4) Sounds Unusual is the danger. The 1550m first up is ideal, there is smart use of the 3kg claim and he looks to find the 1-1 from barrier 5. Both (7) Bestower and (2) Inquiring Minds kick off their preps over the 1550m. Both will be better suited second and third up but get their chances to attack the line here fresh.
Selections:
1 No Drama
4 Sounds Unusual
7 Bestower
2 Inquiring Minds
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
Intriguing event. (6) Fingers Hunter brings clearly the best form lines into the race, running 2nd behind Chidiac two back before a run full of merit in the Country Championship Final. Nice enough draw here and gets in light with the claim. (9) Pimilco strips fitter second up but has come up short price-wise going from maiden grade straight to BM72 grade. Upside to come and Lloyd in the saddle are the two big ticks. (4) Unstopabull is a hard horse to catch. His best would win this easily but he can mix his form. Draws positively here, which is key. (3) Endless Summer is next best, first up for the Waller camp.
Selections:
6 Fingers Hunter
9 Pimilco
4 Unstopabull
3 Endless Summer
Suggested Bet: Fingers Hunter win
Race 9
Excited to see this progressive stayer (7) Koolibah step out for the second time in Sydney. She was dominant last start over 2000m. Back to 1800m is a slight query but the 21 days between runs helps that. (5) Shangri La Impact will get a soft enough lead out in front, is rock-hard fit now third up and is looking for 1800m. (11) The Big Blue and (13) Hammoon Sensation both present here off last start wins. Both have upside to come and can figure in the finish.
Selections:
7 Koolibah
5 Shangri La Impact
11 The Big Blue
13 Hammoon Sensation
Suggested Bet: Koolibah win
Race 10
One of the races of the day to round out proceedings. I love the second-up setup here for (3) Casserousse, who maps ideally second up coming off a first-up run full of merit when sitting on a hot speed. She’s been back to the trials since and should be full of fitness now. (4) Aye Aye Captain returns off a 530-day break, has very sharp trials and has the figures to win this. Big watch. (9) Sapphire Rose has caught my eye in back-to-back 800-900m trials. She looks well placed on a dry deck but does handle all conditions. (7) La Basilique rounds out the numbers off a last start win.
Selections:
3 Casserousse
4 Aye Aye Captain
9 Sapphire Rose
7 La Basilique
Suggested Bet: Casserousse win
