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Gilded Water (GB) on the way to the barriers prior to the running of the The Lexus Bart Cummings at Flemington Racecourse on October 04, 2025 in Flemington, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos)

Gilded Water (GB) on the way to the barriers prior to the running of the The Lexus Bart Cummings at Flemington Racecourse on October 04, 2025 in Flemington, Australia. (Photo by George Sal/Racing Photos)

Mad Monday: Turnbull Stakes

Betsy's Matt Welsh has ripped apart Turnbull Stakes Day. Relive all the action: the blackbookers, the obscure, the quirky and the downright ridiculous.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
October 6, 2025
in Analysis, News
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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For the Time Poor:
Moment of the Day McGaw winning the Danehill
Tactics Questioned What were they thinking with Shadizi?
Flashing Lights (Follow) Arabian Prince (Super Impose Stakes)
Forgive Runs Pondalowie (Rose Of Kingston Stakes)
Time For A Lie Down Punters who had backed Gilded Water at the halfway mark in the Bart Cummings

Track Summary:

  • Hard to argue the track played anything other than very well.
  • Small sample size, but it looked like the wider lanes in straight races were an advantage.
  • Maybe as the track dried out it was a slight edge to be on speed, but that’s splitting hairs.

Moment of the Day: McGaw

A big-race win for great people: Emma-Lee and David Browne.

It was a big win for the training duo who moved from New Zealand to Melbourne in 2022, first to Cranbourne and subsequently Pakenham, where they are now based.

Danehill Stakes | Mcgaw

Mcgaw unravels a scorching sprint on the grandstand side of the straight, winning the Danehill Stakes in a photo finish 🔥

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/1IWxIjgDFs

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 4, 2025

It was a bold ride by Damian Lane who went to the outside rail by himself (My Gladiola – Jamie Mott eventually followed him). The outside division dominated the race, running 1-2, clearing out from Tentyris in third.

The horse is named after the famous All Blacks captain Richie McCaw, but a spelling error by the trainer when submitting paperwork saw a ‘G’ in place of the C – hence McGaw!

Watching Brief – Were the Makybe Diva runners ‘half-a-run short’?

The Turnbull Stakes was hardly run at a manic tempo, but one thing is for sure, it was more genuinely run than the Makybe Diva Stakes!

Fitness wasn’t a concern for Sir Delius, who was dominant winning the Turnbull, but were those that came through the Makybe Diva barrier trial lacking fitness?

Granted, Antino covered some ground, but he was travelling deluxe when he hit the front at the top of the straight before being found wanting over the final 150 metres. Maybe the run took its toll, but it’s fair to think he would’ve had a little more in the tank had the Makybe Diva been a genuine test.

Turnbull Stakes | Sir Delius

Sir Delius stamps his authority over the middle distance division, surging away with a comprehensive victory in the Turnbull Stakes ⭐️

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/UXYz05cDMU

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 4, 2025

Both Via Sistina and Aeliana came into Saturday off two slowly run races and neither looked a winning chance at any stage. Aeliana now looks like she’s searching for 2400 metres, so perhaps the Caulfield Cup will be back on the agenda, but she’ll need to improve sharply to match Half Yours, who is airborne.

Tactics Questioned 

Race 10 – Shadizi

Just a total disaster from the moment the gates opened.

Unfortunately for backers of Shadizi, Craig Williams had been given clear instructions to “ride the horse with cover” – as noted in the RV Stewards Report.

However, that’s the last thing the horse wanted. He resented being restrained straight out of the gates and from there did nothing but over-race. He did an amazing job to finish as close as he did given the tactics and how he behaved – I’ve no doubt that had be been ridden ‘neutral’ he would’ve been in the finish.

Classic example of where punters and trainers have different incentives. Punters want the horse to perform its best in the here and now, trainers often have future goals in mind.

This is not a knock on Craig Williams – he was simply following instructions. For the record, the horse was $6 out to $8 late in betting.

Of note from the ring:

The bookies certainly had the better of the battle on Saturday.

  • Rose Of Kingston Stakes – On Display was heavily backed throughout betting but simply got too far back in a race Miraval Rose was able to control as she pleased.
  • Danehill Stakes – Rosberg was pretty soft late in betting – especially on the Exchange where he SP’d $5.19 (official SP was $4.20) before not going a yard. He was out of the race after they’d gone 50m; he was later found to be shin sore and will now go to the paddock. Conversely, My Gladiola was very well backed, a plunge that only narrowly missed.
  • Bart Cummings – More below, but it was one-way traffic for Gilded Water, who was gobbled up by 50/1 pop Valiant King.
  • Turnbull Stakes – Sir Delius did nothing but drift – $5 out to $7.50 – before a dominant win. The best backed runner was Aeliana who firmed from $4.60 into $3.60.
  • Gilgai Stakes – This was one the punters got right. All the money was for War Machine who swept down the outside to win comfortably. The second best backed runner was Star Patrol, who finished third.

Time For A Stiff Drink And A Lie Down… Backers of Gilded Water

Gilded Water was heavily-backed right throughout the week, and frankly up until the jump, to take out the Bart Cummings and win his way into the Melbourne Cup.

Most mapped him to be somewhere on speed, so it was no surprise to see Jamie Melham push forward from the wide gate.

However, backers would’ve pretty quickly heard alarm bells ringing when the gelding put a space on his rivals at the midway point of the race, clearly going too fast to sustain.

VALIANT KING 😱

Well that was something! Valiant King is into another Melbourne Cup, running down the King’s horse Gilded Water who set up a massive lead in the run! pic.twitter.com/sgxtI9tztY

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 4, 2025

Many punters were aghast at the ride, with Melham explaining post race she had tried to “ease” but the “gelding pulled too hard”.

Either way, the mad tempo was always going to take its toll, but his effort to hang on and run third was enormous.

He’s clearly a talented horse who needs to be able to cope with a quieter ride. The question will be how quickly he can recover from that gut-buster, because with the Cup a month away, time is ticking for him to sneak a spot.

To add insult to injury for punters, it was a bolter – Valiant King – sporting the blinkers for the first time who claimed the Bart Cummings.

The Flashing Light:

Super Impose Stakes (r3) – Arabian Prince was 11 weeks between runs having debuted at 1800m back in July. In an unusual campaign, he went into Saturday having not had a trial or prep run, but he turned in an eye-catching performance. He got a mile back, but worked home brilliantly into fifth. He’s clearly a natural stayer and his trainer – Mick Kent – is known for doing the unconventional, at times! Mick has a good one on his hands.

Super Impose Stakes | Options

Options proves the strongest stayer in the Super Impose Stakes, claiming the lead in the shadows of the post 🔵

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/CokPzvqPQp

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 4, 2025

Forgive Me:

Rose Of Kingston Stakes (5) – Pondalowie is airborne, now she just needs some luck. She has reinvented herself this campaign as a 1400m horse, having previously been a shorter-course sprinter. She got a mile back in a sedately run affair, but again smashed the line to run fourth. I’d love to see her draw a gate and settle handier, which she’s capable of doing. A win won’t be far away.

 

Tags: FlemingtonJamie MelhamSir DeliusSpring CarnivalTurnbull StakesVia Sistina
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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