Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R2 (8) Lucky Lucky Boom
Next Best: R6 (2) Deepfloat Diva
Turf Talk
- Showery weather is forecast for Friday and Saturday. With the track currently rated a Soft 6, there is potential for a downgrade, possibly into the Heavy range, depending on how much rain falls.
- The rail moves out from the previous meeting and will be in the +12m position for the entire circuit.
- The course proper is quite spacious and generally plays fairly. In wet conditions, expect runners to come wider in the straight as the meeting progresses.
Stats That Matter
- It is Noel Callow’s second week back riding and he may have blown out the cobwebs with eight rides this week. He rode one winner and still boasts 22 wins from his past 100 rides, returning a POT of +11.3%.
- Kayla Crowther is enduring a tough recent run, with only eight winners from her past 100 rides and a POT of -42.6%.
- Luke O’Connor does not have a huge team but is very effective. He has produced 17 winners from his past 100 runners with a strong POT of +47%.
- Anthony and Sam Freedman return this weekend and bring a runner across the border for the feature. They have eight winners from their past 100 runners and a POT of -64.4%, so they may take some time to recapture their best form.
Race 1
(4) Inhabit showed talent when winning on debut back in October last year, but her runs since then have been below expectations, albeit with some genuine excuses. She has looked good in two recent trial wins, so expect her to return in good order, and she is well suited with race-map advantages. (2) Chica Astuta is another who resumes. We have seen her at the races once, when she was a winner in a handy race here in South Australia. She comes into this off two moderate trials, but did the same last preparation and fired fresh. (1) Pretty Baby comes into the race with a gap between runs since she won the Listed Oaklands Plate. She has a fitness advantage over some but is back in distance. (6) Azytass showed good speed when winning at Balaklava last start. If she can race in a similar position today, she will be advantaged, but this is harder.
Selections
(4) Inhabit
(2) Chica Astuta
(1) Pretty Baby
(6) Azytass
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(8) Lucky Lucky Boom drops in grade to the easiest race he has seen in some time. He maps softly from barrier three, so will likely put himself into the race, which will suit with a light weight, and this setup should be ideal. (5) Kengero is another Victorian visitor who looks well suited. His four career wins have come at this distance and he has a strong record in the wet, so deteriorating conditions should prove no issue. (4) Willybeafactor is in consistent form and ran third in a similar setup last start. Wet conditions will suit him and he is lighter at the weights, so expect a positive run. (1) Snoopy Now has a good record at the 1600m trip, so should appreciate the rise in distance. He is down in grade and is a tough competitor, but will have to give significant weight to his rivals.
Selections
(8) Lucky Lucky Boom
(5) Kengero
(4) Willybeafactor
(1) Snoopy Now
Suggested Bet: (8) Lucky Lucky Boom – Win
Race 3
(6) Flash Alice has chased (1) Placo in their past two starts, but I think she gets the better setup today, remaining low in the weights and with a potentially faster tempo. It should set her up to be running over the top late. (1) Placo is tough and looked to handle the big weight despite being run down late last start, but he could be more vulnerable here if they run along quickly and he is made to work from the wide barrier in the early stages. (4) Jandami is flying, having won two in a row, and looks ready for a rise in distance after some fast finishes recently. Being low in the weights suits and a wet track would be ideal. (8) Peta’s Heart got a long way back last start but was strong to the line. A rise in distance will suit, as she has won under this setup previously.
Selections
(6) Flash Alice
(1) Placo
(4) Jandami
(8) Peta’s Heart
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
This looks a very tough race. I landed on (5) Paganini at value, who needs to handle a rise in grade after winning at maiden level last start, but she rated highly in that run and any improvement would line her up well here. She will appreciate the rise in distance and can handle wet tracks. (6) Regal Ripper has been midfield in his past two runs but looks better suited up in distance now. He will likely get back in the run from the wide barrier, but returning to the bigger track suits. (2) Golden Guru has been consistent this preparation, running in the top three in all five starts. He had a gap between runs before his last start but hit the line well, so gets into this fitter, which will suit up in distance. He needs luck from an awkward barrier, but his best is good enough to win. (1) Victory Tune crosses from Victoria and is down in grade. He should find this much easier and should be hitting the line strongly if he handles the expected wet track.
Selections
(5) Paganini
(6) Regal Ripper
(2) Golden Guru
(1) Victory Tune
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5
(5) Miss Cotoletta comes across from Victoria and sets up well dropping in grade from her recent runs. She has been competitive in those performances, so should be suited here. She will likely race on speed, will not be disadvantaged in the wet and should take catching. (6) Extremely Rowdy was solid when resuming and finishing midfield. She is a runner who has taken a few runs into a preparation to find her best form and can improve now with added fitness. (4) Dampen ran third when resuming. He is fitter for this today and is well suited at this distance. His form last preparation was in stronger races, so this setup should prove no issue, but he may not want a very wet track, as his better form has been on dry ground. (1) Grand Host is on the quick back-up after a solid run last week. This is a slight drop in grade, so he can improve, and he handles wet conditions.
Selections
(5) Miss Cotoletta
(6) Extremely Rowdy
(4) Dampen
(1) Grand Host
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
(2) Deepfloat Diva has placed in his past two runs and both of those races were up in grade, so he will be suited dropping back down in level. He boasts a strong record over this track-and-distance setup at 6:2-0-3, is suited here and can give Jake Toeroek a returning win. (5) Bouncing Beyond is another runner dropping in grade. He sets up well again from a low barrier and is light in the weights, so expect that, in a similar setup to his recent efforts, he can figure. (7) Vexatious Dancer was good when resuming and has the scope to improve rising slightly in distance. She is also fitter second-up, where she has previously found improvement. (1) Bootlegger resumes. His better form has come over further distances, but he was a Listed winner last preparation, so rates highly in this field and would not surprise.
Selections
(2) Deepfloat Diva
(5) Bouncing Beyond
(7) Vexatious Dancer
(1) Bootlegger
Suggested Bet: (2) Deepfloat Diva – Win
Race 7
This is the feature Group 3 for the sprinters. I am siding with the in-form (7) Lingani, who has won two of her past three runs and has a fitness advantage. Importantly, if the rain comes and the track is downgraded, it will suit her ideally, as she has won four from four on Heavy tracks. She is drawn wide but will likely get back anyway, and a fast tempo should set her up to be running on. (3) Sir Now is another who has a fitness advantage and has been in strong form. He was only run down late by Lingani last start, but with this race map, expect he may look for cover in the run, which could help him be stronger late, and the conditions will suit. (8) Mating Call is a classy runner who resumes. Her better form last preparation came in staying races, but she has won first-up previously and won her only other run at this distance, so it would not surprise to see her run well. (6) Shady Thinker resumes. He is undefeated first-up so far in his career and maps for a soft run from barrier five, so looks likely to race handy and represents some value.
Selections
(7) Lingani
(3) Sir Now
(8) Mating Call
(6) Shady Thinker
Suggested Bet: (7) Lingani – Each Way
Race 8
(13) Layin Up did not have much go her way last start, when she found herself in an awkward position early in the run and never really finished off. She ran well at her home track previously, so if she can improve at the jump this week, she will likely settle in a better position and looks huge value if capable of finding her best form. (3) Justacclaim is in career-best form with two wins in a row over this track-and-distance setup. He has rated highly in those wins, so is certainly a strong chance here again, but the wider barrier gives him a tough run early and he will need the right luck. (1) Sir Myka is well down in grade from his most recent runs, including contesting a Listed-level race last start. He is well suited back at this level and sets up for a favourable run from barrier one. (4) Platinum Wolf was an impressive winner when resuming from a long spell recently. He has always been talented and has been kept fresh for this run since that last win, which suits, so it would come as no surprise to see him hit the line strongly and be a chance at value.
Selections
(13) Layin Up
(3) Justacclaim
(1) Sir Myka
(4) Platinum Wolf
Suggested Bet: (13) Layin Up – Each Way
Race 9
(11) Astrodean is rising in grade after a last-start win in country company, but he gets a favourable setup here that could allow him to handle the step up in level. He maps to lead and gets that chance from an inside barrier. With a light weight after the apprentice claim, he could prove tough to catch if given a soft run, and he handles wet tracks. Victorian visitor (15) Rogue Warrior looks ready to handle a step up in distance after a tough run in a stronger race last start. He maps well and should be strong late. (3) Craddle Of Jazz is in form, having won three of her past four runs. She was a winner in a similar setup last start, so can figure again, but will need to overcome a wide barrier. (7) Full Commitment is another runner rising in grade off the back of a last-start win. She maps awkwardly from a wide barrier but thrives on Heavy tracks, so will be hoping for wet conditions, which will suit her.
Selections
(11) Astrodean
(15) Rogue Warrior
(3) Craddle Of Jazz
(7) Full Commitment
Suggested Bet: No Bet
