Talk about some high-level inside mail.
And we’re not talking about a tip from a trainer or a nod from an owner – this is potentially the inside running of a top-secret United States led assault to overthrow another country’s president.
A mysterious punter has collected nearly $400,000US [more than $595,000AUD] by correctly betting when the United States would invade Venezuela – plus remove its president Nicolás Maduro. All the bets were placed on the cryptocurrency site Polymarket.
Polymarket has previously been criticised for its lack of regulation and ability to be manipulated by inside or classified information.
In this specific case, all the bets from the winning and unidentified punter were between December 23 and January 3.
Given that’s when the US were gearing up for their assault – after months of planning – raises the obvious question.
Did someone with access to highly classified information use it to punt, and make a fortune?
For those who somehow missed it, in the early hours of January 3, the U.S. launched a special operation that captured Maduro and his wife, flying them to the U.S. to face narco-terrorism charges.
According to media reports, the operation had been authorised before Christmas by President Donald Trump, though its exact timing remained closely held, even within high levels of government.
Just 24 hours before the bombs started dropping [and not long after the mission became more common knowledge within government circles], the Polymarket punter made their largest and final wager, staking over $14,000US [20,827AUD] on a successful American intervention.
According to US reports, the account in question had a limited footprint given only 13 bets were placed, totalling just under $34,000US [$50,580AUD], and all were tied to the Venezuela outcome.
The NBC did not however that despite the suspicious timing, the user could be identified if law enforcement wanted to find out who the punter is.
According to cryptocurrency analytics firm Chainalysis, the winnings were paid out in cryptocurrency and cashed out via a major U.S.-based exchange, making tracing the account straightforward.
At least four other Polymarket users also profited from smaller bets tied to Maduro’s removal. It remains unclear whether they too had inside information or simply guessed right.
As far as tips or inside mail, it’s about as good [and profitable as it gets] – whether its legal or ethical is one for the experts.
