The autumn carnival is now well and truly behind us, as Mornington plays host to a highly competitive day of racing, headlined by its Cup.
There is plenty of betting interest across the program, but early price assessors have honed in on the mistakes in the early markets, so it would be remiss to suggest a bet I might not still have by race day. For that reason, most of my wagering will be done late, as the runners are being loaded into the gates.
One runner, however, looks worthy of backing now, and that is Actuality (race 3), whose price I expect to shorten further.
There does not appear to be much pace in the race on paper, which leaves an uncontested lead very much on the table for Actuality and Luke Nolen, should they choose to take it. Mornington is often a course where being in the first few is important, so Moody and Nolen should avoid the mistake of being too passive here.
Actuality resumed over five and a half furlongs at Flemington in testing conditions. She moved up to challenge between the 600 and 200 metre marks before running out of condition, finishing the final furlong two lengths slower than is typical for that class of race at Flemington under those conditions.
Peter Moody’s horses are not immediately prepared to win first up.
Over the past 12 months, his resuming horses have won at 11.1%, below market expectation, while second up they are winning at 17.9%, and marginally outperforming the market.
She looks like an excellent bet, and I assess her as a $2.80 chance.
The Mornington Cup is an intriguing race, largely because many of the market leaders look questionable over a mile and a half. Based on their cadence, I am wary of Ambassadorial, Sea What I See, King’s Valley, Pounding and Jennilala at 2400 metres. The pace forecast is strong too, so there will be nowhere to hide.
Immediacy may be unplaced from four attempts at 2400 metres, but two of those came on heavy tracks and the other two in much stronger races than this. He looks to be searching for this distance now, and he’d only need to improve one length to win. He’ll be a winner for me.
Bankers Choice won this race last year and is in similar form this year, having run well first up in the Peter Young Stakes before a respectable Easter Cup effort, where he was beaten for speed in a slowly run race. He can make the pace and will stay strongly.
Zarir has been underwhelming since arriving in Australia, but he has been tested in stronger races than this. He may not have been suited to those assignments, and he could also be looking for a truly run staying race, which he has not yet had over this distance. He’s a very cheap bet to have, and one worth including despite not having beaten a runner home in three runs this preparation.
Suggested plays:
Race 3 No.7 Actuality
Race 8 No.1 Bankers Choice, No.3 Zarir, No.5 Immediacy at odds.
