Makybe Diva Stakes – the tactical conundrum

The Makybe Diva Stakes looks less a test of raw horsepower and more a battle of tactics. With only six runners, initiative could trump ability, and the intent shown by Shinn, Lane, Williams, Melham or McDonald may well decide the Group 1.

Small fields can create the biggest headaches. Saturday’s Makybe Diva Stakes has just six runners, but the shape of the race is anything but straightforward. With so little natural speed engaged, the $750,000 Group 1 may be won and lost in the first 400 metres.

Of the sextet, Mr Brightside is the only ‘go-forward’ horse.

That leaves Craig Williams with the keys to the race. Mr Brightside is the natural leader and 99 per cent of speed maps will have him controlling proceedings with little pressure. If he gets that scenario, he has to be right in the game.

So what do the rivals do? That’s the tactical conundrum.

The Makybe Diva isn’t anyone’s Grand Final – each runner has bigger spring targets in mind, but it’s still a Group 1, and there’s serious prizemoney on the table. Trainers and jockeys will need to decide whether they’re content to let Mr Brightside dictate terms or whether someone will roll the dice and make it a genuine contest.

One option sits with Blake Shinn on Antino.

Shinn has been at his aggressive best on Tony Gollan’s star gelding, often making his runs from a long way out. Could he push forward at the 1000m mark and eyeball Williams, forcing a true tempo?

Then there’s Chris Waller’s pair, Via Sistina and Aeliana. Does Waller instruct one of Damian Lane (Aeliana) or James McDonald (Via Sistina) to be more positive here – not to win at all costs, but to make sure Mr Brightside completely dictate the race?

It’s a fascinating push-and-pull.

On one hand, you risk bottoming your horse out before the bigger spring riches. On the other, you can’t just gift Mr Brightside a Group 1 jog-and-sprint.

There’s no question the quality is there – multiple Group 1 winners, up-and-comers, and the reigning weight-for-age star. But the lack of numbers and obvious leaders turns the Makybe Diva Stakes into a chess match, not a drag race, and in chess, one bold move can flip the board.