Turf talk:
- Been an interesting season on the Ballarat Synthetic.
- There has been notable kick back which needs to be avoided.
- The last couple of meetings has seen horses out wide in the straight advantaged, part of that was wind related but some of it inexplicable, for mine.
- Key thing is horses need momentum and clean air free of that kick back. ,
Key stats:
There are a couple of trainers/jockeys that dominate this track.
- John Allen rode six winners here last Thursday and Friday alone! He has ridden eight winners from his last 20 rides a the track. He strikes at 23.3% here across his riding career.
- Tony and Calvin McEvoy love this surface. Go at 35.1% across their training career from a big sample size. The market loves their horses here for good reason, so that is only slightly beating market expectation, but it’s noteworthy nonetheless.
Not a strong race. Thought (6) Kovu trialled very nicely on this surface before his last run here over 1500m. He got a mile back there but rattled home late. Don’t mind him having another crack at 2000m plus; the key will be the start as he can be slow out, so hopefully Jade is awake to that. Didn’t have much luck at Donald two back and has always shown a degree of talent despite not placing from 11 runs!
(4) Gaelic Kiwi beat (1) Barossa Valley home at Donald two back, albeit probably in the better ground there. He was all over the place like a loose shopping trolley this track and trip last start; had he gone straight he would’ve been right in the finish. Love to see him ridden more aggressively early.
Barossa Valley can absolutely win and has the right hoop up in John Allen, but sheesh, he’s limited given we are being asked to take $2.20.
Suggested bet: Small bets on Gaelic Kiwi and Kovu around the favourite.
(4) The Brutalist is a big fella who has taken time to get to the races. His action looks like it suits synthetic tracks and indeed his best Pakenham jump-outs have bene on the synthetic surface. Like a wide draw for him with just one bend out of the 1000m as he looks a horse that will need space. Thought his two recent pieces of work have been excellent – he should run well on debut at double figures.
Suspect (11) Slightly Salty leads them up. She has trialled well on the Geelong Synthetic and it looks like we will get 20/1 plus about her closer to the jump. Think she’s in the game.
(6) Filigree Shadow has been scratched from a few wide draws of late but goes around from gate nine today. She was ‘OK’ on debut but that was heavy and now she comes straight back to the synthetic track. She trialled well on Flemington’s synthetic track prior to debut and the stable fly here. Not sure 1200m back to 1000m is ideal but due to being scratched a few times she’s now 25 days between runs so maybe on the fresher side.
(11) Eternal Joy trialled nicely at Flemington before striking a strong race fresh at Cranbourne. Wonder if they try ride her quieter here with the pacifiers going on.
Suggested bet: Backing The Brutalist and Slightly Salty at odds.
(6) Packers Journey looks the best of the day. She’s had two runs on this track and both have been very good, Thought she was a moral beaten last time out when badly held up back to the inside and was 3-4L in front 100m past the post. I know they ran ~8L slower than the race (6) Gisella comes through the very next race the same day, but being back in the field meant Packers Journey wasn’t controlling the overall time. Draws out today so should’ve have such traffic issues.
Definitely including (10) Vores in exotics and quaddies. Has had excuses in pretty much every run this campaign and think she’s going better than the results suggest.
(5) Gisella has done all of her recent racing against much stronger opposition but sheesh she was a touch plain last start and now rises to 61kg. Gets a nice run and has shown glimpses of very good talent, but not a filly I want to be backing as favourite.
Suggested bet: Keen Packers Journey.
(3) Docinthe was getting smashed with kickback much of the race here last time out and he looked to resent it. Like Johnny Allen taking over today and the wide draw is ideal for a horse that would get back anyway. Provided they can make ground out wide, he’s the horse I want to be with.
(2) Barryfrom Brunzwick beat Docinthe home last time out and will again have a tactical edge while (4) Backflip also comes through the same race having beaten the pair home – both have good chances again and go in the quaddie.
Suggested bet: Happy to wait and see that they can make ground but if they can then backing Docinthe.
