Turf talk:
- Meeting was moved to the Ballarat Synthetic (from turf) after rain saw the track unsuitable to race.
- Plenty of kickback so far this season on the Ballarat Synthetic. Need horses that can handle it, and ideally ones that are free of said kickback.
- Light winds won’t impact racing.
- Really tricky day with a few short-priced favourites, horses hitting synthetic for the first time and limited field sizes.
Key stats:
A few trainers heading to Wednesday’s meeting have good records at this track:
- Michelle Payne has a 31.3% strike rate at a PoT of 166.2%
- Tony and Calvin McEvoy strike at 34.5% from a decent sample size.
- Team Hayes go at 25.3% here.
The leading jockey at this track is John Allen who has a career strike rate of 22.7%.
Apprentice Olivia East is arguably the form jockey heading to the meeting having won 17 from her last 100 rides.
Race 1
(2) Bull Run was held up when building momentum at the top of the straight before running third at a mile. Was a bit one-paced there but reckon the first couple over the line have some degree of talent. He’s getting out to his right trip now and I imagine they will be rolling forward from a good gate.
(4) King’s Anchor was surprisingly very one-paced when favourite at Swan Hill last time. Disappointed a touch there but was very good on top of the ground first up at Bendigo. Trialled very well on this surface early in his career.
Nothing between these two, as the market would suggest. Probably lean every so slightly to Bull Run as don’t have any distance queries over him whereas I do think the 2100m is a query for King’s Anchor.
Would be surprised if anything else could win.
Selections:
(2) Bull Run
(4) King’s Anchor
(1) Barossa Valley
(5) Lakes Entrance
Suggested bet: No thanks.
Race 2
(3) Dynamite Dancer was a late scratching here at Ballarat a couple of weeks back after playing up in the stalls. Has jumped-out nicely since and looks ready to go back to the sports. Trials prior had also been excellent and I think he’s going to run a big race fresh. Drawn to settle right on speed.
(4) Audio Pop Cam has trialled nicely and one of her two wins came on the Pakenham Synthetic. Has always trialled better than she has raced but should press forward and give a sight.
(5) Nightime Star had excuses at Mornington.
(1) Sea Trader had pattern in favour last time out but has always shown ability.
Selections:
(3) Dynamite Dancer
(4) Audio Pop Cam
(5) Nightime Star
(3) Dynamite Dancer
Suggested bet: Keen on Dynamite Dancer.
Race 3
This looks (3) Thinkyahot’s race to lose. Terrific first-up when didn’t have the best passage in a strong form race at Echuca. Then blew the kick at Sale in an on-speed dominated race, but produced the best last 200m split of the meeting in running a narrow third. Suspect they press forward here and take bad luck out of the equation.
2yo (9) Lift Net doesn’t have the convictions of a few rivals and he has trialled up nicely. Tony and Calvin McEvoy are so good on this Ballarat synthetic surface.
(4) Alphabet gets blinkers and a tongue tie. Good fresh, didn’t handle heavy last start. Drawn for a good run if she jumps cleanly with the shades on the first time.
Selections:
(3) Thinkyahot
(9) Lift Net
(4) Alphabet
(1) Peiriant
Suggested bet: Not overly keen on the $1.60 Thinkyahot but he’s clearly the horse to beat.
Race 4
Jade Smith is a good booking for (1) Ultra Blue – she rides frontrnners well. This horse did a huge job at Casterton two back when setting a cracking tempo before beating off the other on-speed horses, only to be swamped by Freak Of Nature who had a soft run on his back. Well rated at Sandown last start when winning. There is no pressure for the front; in theory he should lead, dictate, kick, win. The little query is the synthetic, he hasn’t seen it since his debut which is a run I’m happy to forgive.
(4) Princeofnottingham hasn’t seen this surface since July 2023, but he relished it back then. He ran well without much luck at the Caulfield Heath last start. He can settle second in run here and will be strong at the end of 1500m, while the favourite is a slight risk at the trip.
(2) Comic Hero has never seen this surface on raceday but has trialled nicely on it. He was strong late at Sandown last start. Little query at 1500m, but giving the indication it will suit.
Selections:
(1) Ultra Blue
(4) Princeofnottingham
(2) Comic Hero
(3) Lethal Thoughts
Suggested bet: Market seems about right. Happy to watch on.
Race 5
Not a strong race.
(9) Elegant Force didn’t have the best of luck at her first run for Melody Cunningham on a heavy deck here at Ballarat. That was 1200m, previous form and that run would suggest much better suited at 1500m. Had a very soft trial on the synthetic leading into that first-up run, so has had some experience on the surface. Can settle more forward.
(1) All The Moves backs up from Sunday where he ran well at his first exposure to this surface. Can roll forward and make his own luck.
(5) Inarticulate has trialled up nicely on this surface and could improve notably getting off the slop.
(4) Dempsey will roll forward and has a hope.
Selections:
(9) Elegant Force
(5) Inarticulate
(1) All The Moves
(4) Dempsey
Suggested bet: Can have something small E/W Elegant Force
Race 6
Speed looks reasonable in the small field. (2) Shooter McGavin probably leads but wouldn’t surprise to see (1) Savvie Blanc push forward on the fresh side (can get keen).
Wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these win. As even a race as you’ll find.
(3) Male Model is a horse I’ve always had time for. Like that Jake Noonan has taken over the reins this campaign and now that he’s had a couple of rides he will know what this bloke’s all about. Only time he saw this surface he was eased out of the race, so don’t bother looking at the synthetic track stats.
Wouldn’t shock to see the bolter, (1) Savvie Blanc get the cash. He produced a big rating at Seymour four back and I reckon he’s best when let stride.
(4) Miss Mahjong loves the surface. Freshened up after EIPIH at Sandown last time out, which horses can bounce back off quickly. Right in the game.
(6) Tan Tat Delight was good late at Sandown last start. Ready now third-up.
May have missed the winners, too!
Selections:
(3) Male Model
(1) Savvie Blanc
(4) Miss Mahjong
(6) Tan Tat Delight
Suggested bet: Go wide in the quaddie
Race 7
(6) Soldier Boi and (4) Emperor Tzu have clashed at their last two starts and I thought Soldier Boi was the better run on each occasion. He’s a big horse who will likely appreciate getting back outside runners from the wide draw, having been cluttered away from inside gates his past couple. Would like to see him ridden aggressively.
(4) Emperor Tzu has a more straightforward map than Soldier Boi.
(2) Sunsets was going well until he struck a wet track last time out. Clearly seeking draw ground here.
(8) Kawa is the one with good synthetic form but he lacks the class/upside of the aforementioned.
Selections:
(6) Soldier Boy
(2) Sunsets
(4) Emperor Tzu
(8) Kawa
Suggested bet: Can back Soldier Boi at the $3.60 – think he should be closer to $3 and favourite.
Race 8
Interesting that Declan Bates didn’t use the whip at all on (2) El Pibe De Oro last start when narrowly beaten by (4) Cumboogle. Look, may not have made a huge difference as he is a horse that has won this track and trip hard held in the past, but I do suspect he would’ve won. Gets a 2kg weight swing in his favour and loves the synthetic. This is a slightly harder race, but he should get a good speed to suit and will close hard late.
The toppy, (1) Wolf Twenty One looks suited dropping back to 1000m and coming down in grade. He will likely get the leader’s back with Cumboogle to lead, but with clear air at the top of the straight will be right in the finish.
(3) Body Of Venus chased a couple of smart ones at the Caulfield Heath last start. Not convinced dropping back to 1000m is ideal for her but if they’re able to make ground from the tail she should prove strong late.
(5) Prince Sonic has his share of issues. Stayed in the stalls at his first jump-out this campaign before trialling nicely subsequent to that. Hit and miss, maybe more miss, but on his day has talent.
Selections:
(2) El Pibe De Oro
(1) Wolf Twenty One
(3) Body Of Venus
(5) Prince Sonic
Suggested bet: Happy to watch
