Matt Welsh’s Bendigo Set: Best bets, value plays and roughies for Thursday’s meeting

Race 1

Looks good speed which will afford (2) Foxtrot Charlie a super run in transit. He trialled up nicely and was well backed in a handy maiden first up at Bairnsdale. He took a while to wind up but was strong through the line, finishing third behind what look two handy horses in Imperial Award and Earthling. Blinkers now go on from a lovely draw and the step to 1300m is ideal. Has race fitness on a few key rivals and can run very well at $17.

(8) Top Conti worked hard in the mid-stages first up over 1400m at Pakenham last start, which was probably asking a touch much of him coming off a spell. Stuck on well, and most pleasingly was surging again past the post. Should lead and with first use of the track take catching. Not surprised to see support for (9) Angland Lass. She looks the pick of the debutants having trialled well at Werribee most recently. Soft 800m trial to 1300m on debut is a big task, but she looks to have good talent.

Wouldn’t surprise to see (11) Ramelle run a race at big odds. Has jumped-out well between runs and will appreciate getting back onto a drier deck.

(1) Brilliant Bull Ant will be super strong late. Form probably a touch flattering coming out of some fairly moderate maidens, but has a good turn of foot.

Suggested bet: Backing Foxtrot Charlie at $17/Top Conti at $8. Quinella 2,8,9,11.

Race 2

Concede the two favourites – (2) Eyes Of Blue and (7) Shapenapit – both have great chances, but happy to bet around them at $2.30 and $2.80. Eyes Of Blue has jumped-out very well, but is 39 weeks between runs, had an aborted preparation in summer, and knocked up badly on debut. Shapenapit has jumped-out reasonably well without totally raving about her work. Both can win, but I can’t see value in their prices.

(6) Servenia should get a nice camp off a good tempo and she can run well first go for Vin Hall. Vin is very good with tried horses and this filly has trialled up very well since joining his stable. Having something E/W at $20.

Also having something small on (4) Mangano. She is the stablemate of Eyes Of Blue and has also jumped-out nicely. Poor on debut last campaign but looks to have really improved this time in and Nolen rides.

Suggested bet: Backing Servenia 1×3 EW at $21 + something small on Mangano at $8.

Race 3

Keen on (12) Somers Green at $3. They have been patient in trying to find the right race to debut, scratching from poor draws and really wet tracks. She has jumped-out very nicely for this debut and from gate three she’s going to get a perfect run in transit.

As the market would suggest, the clear danger looks (9) She’s Loaded. Mitch Freedman is airborne at the moment, including four winners at Swan Hill on Tuesday, and this filly has had two very nice, quiet trials to prepare for a return to the races. Will need a good steer off gate one as she will settle with a few in front of her, but clearly going well.

Suggested bet: Keen Somers Green. Something also the 9,12 quinella.

Race 4

Gee, (7) Olive Road looks a big price at $13. Form through her first campaign is super. Third to Standard Deviation, with Federalist in second, when the best of the on-pacers at Pakenham prior to a spell (4th, 5th, 9th, 10th won within their next two starts). Both her Sale and Cranbourne run were also very good. She’s drawn out, but with an aggressive ride early from Beriman she can get outside the leader here. Knock is she hasn’t had a jump-out, so not sure how she’s going first up, but with a positive jump-out lead I’d have her near favourite, so more than happy to take a punt at the $13.

(1) Kandinsky was a touch plain first up at Geelong but that was a strong form race behind Crypt, with second and third since winning. It was also dominated by the run on horses out wider on the track.

Liked the run of (3) Carry Trade at Seymour fresh. Only had one jump-out leading in, so should strip much fitter. Suited getting back on to firmer footing. (12) Quick Finish has trialled up OK and should put herself in the early firing line.

Suggested bet: Backing Olive Road 1×3 EW at $14.

Race 5

Looks good speed which will suit (9) Our Justify. She brings clearly the strongest form into this race and at times this campaign she hasn’t had the best of luck. She will get back early, but provided they can make ground – which I expect them to be able to with the rail out – she can charge over the top of them late.

(3) Sacred Fort beat a moderate field at Mildura during the Carnival but he’s racing well for Taige Weir.

(12) Jenni Intiba has bandages going on her front legs the first time which I don’t love but she was good here at Bendigo over 1300m last time out. Has had a tick-over trial between runs.

Suggested bet: So long as they can make ground, keen on Our Justify.

Race 7

A similar story to race five: provided they can make ground then (3) Crypt looks clearly the horse to beat. Huge run on debut at Sale and then beat two subsequent winners in breaking his maiden at Geelong. Damien Thornton knows the horse well having ridden him in both starts to date and the little step in trip is only further in his favour. With even luck, think he wins again.

The danger is (1) Endless Summer. Terrific run behind a subsequent Flemington winner Salizou at his first outing for Andrew Bobbin. Gets in well after the claim for Shayleigh Inglese who rode him last start. Drying track in his favour.

Suggested bet: So long as they can make ground, backing Crypt.