Turf talk:
- Rail out 10m having been 6m at the most recent meeting.
- Generally this rail position sees horses able to sweep home in the wider lanes, but they are going to aerate the outside 4m, so that will be a no-go zone.
- Light winds forecast which won’t impact racing.
- Walking the track on Friday, so will update accordingly.
Key stats:
- Jabez Johnstone continues to fire, going at 23% his last 100 rides (23.2% PoT). He has a sensational book of rides on Saturday.
- Phillip Stokes is ging well below his career strike rate with just four winners from his past 50 runners (-35% PoT) and seven from his past 100 (-64% PoT).
- Lachie Neindorf has had a great 12 of so month, but has been below his best of late. He has just nine winners from his past 100 (PoT -40.7%). Does have a good book of rides on Saturday.
Race 1
Speed comes from (4) Divine Thoughts with (1) Takeko thereabouts. Looks a moderate tempo for 1200m.
Don’t like the low draw for (5) Recuperato but think she’s going very well. Has had two straight track runs this campaign and both runs have had merit. Was the first horse home on the grandstand side last start in a race dominated nearer the inside. She was arguably a touch unlucky in the Blue Sapphire this track and trip in spring, albeit that wasn’t the strongest edition of the race! If she can catch a few breaks from the low draw then she can figure in the finish.
Ryan Houston should lob into a lovely spot on (1) Takeko. She knocked up fresh over 1100m but has trialled nicely between runs and 1200m is her trip.
(3) Custom has a great chance, but she hasn’t been missed by the market. Pretty good first up, but that was a bunch finished and didn’t seem an overly strong race. Maps well/claim helps.
Like how (7) Mystery ‘N’ Drama has trialled up. Wants further, but if in touch turning does have a good turn-of-foot.
(5) Recuperato
(1) Takeko
(3) Custom
(7) Mystery ‘N’ Drama
Suggested bet: Don’t like the race. Hate the draw for Recuperato but think she’s going better than form suggests. Happy to watch and see how the track plays.
Race 2
Good speed. (12) No Confetti will be right on speed. (10) Brazen Panda has toe, as do stablemates (8) Resolutely and (6) Stakes.
Tipping (2) Milsons Point is going to greatly benefit form the gelding. He has looked in great health in recent jump-outs and he doesn’t need to have improved much to be right in the finish of this.
Brazen Panda is an interesting runner. He has moved beautifully in all three trials, cruising to the post to win his latest under a HUGE hold, while his rivals were all ridden right out. If there’s something in the tank when Teo pushes the bottom, he will be most competitive.
Always been a rap for (5) Brazen Dechambeau. He won a strong maiden at Pakenham before a spell. Loved how he skipped away from his rivals in his recent Pakenham jump-out – he quickened so nicely.
Suspect (1) Ghana’s Akan is going to spot them a decent start, but she will be strong late. Has jumped-out nicely.
(2) Milsons Point
(10) Brazen Panda
(5) Brazen Dechambeau
(1) Ghana’s Akan
Suggested bet: Small plays Milsons Point and Brazen Panda at odds.
Race 3
(3) Tennessee Bound is building a picket fence to start her career. Look, this is her toughest test to date, but she drops down to 54.5kg and looks to get a pretty good run on speed. She had the pattern in her favour at Sandown last start but she did set a cracking tempo! The knock could be the inside alley if they are avoiding the fence and maybe dropping back in trip. Thought Vestas was her main danger and she has been scratched – so that makes the task much easier!
(8) Behaviour was one of only a few horses to perform well facing the headwind at the July 11 meeting here – her run was super.
(1) Salsa Fellow will spot them a start but he will be strong late. (6) Butternut Princess has trialled nicely.
(3) Tennessee Bound
(8) Behaviour
(1) Salsa Fellow
(6) Butternut Princess
Suggested bet: Not interested from a punting perspective.
Race 4
(3) Signature Scent copped a ripping ride form Jabez Johntstone when scoring this track and trip last start. Was 77 days between runs and only had one soft jump-out, so should strip fitter. Again maps for a lovely run and 1100m is her sweet spot.
(13) Beautiful Bevy was beaten by a potential star at Sandown last start but beat the rest comfortable. Gets down to 51.5kg after the claim for Luke Cartwright and she’s an uncomplicated ride – jam her up on speed and let her to the rest. She can figure in the finish.
(7) Jenni The Ninja was no match for Signature Scent last start but she did have the pattern of the day against her.
(2) Prince Tycoon gets the blinkers on for the first time and will put himself up on speed. Liked how he fought back when it looked like he was going to drop out in the Creswick last start. Yet to taste defeat at 1100m.
(3) Signature Scent
(13) Beautiful Bevy
(7) Janni The Ninja
(2) Prince Tycoon
Suggested bet: Something small Signature Scent/Beautiful Bevy – but not going overboard.
Race 5
Giving (6) Tufff Tu Mus a winning hope at odds. He’s had two runs for the Hayes stable; the first was utterly putrid, but the latest was better than it looked behind Couer Volante – he was held up when trying to make ground and strong late. He jumped just fairly last start but I suspect they wanted to go forward with him, but that slow getaway saw the gaps quickly close. Provided he jumps reasonably, he should settle handy to the speed from a good draw. Ready to peak now third up.
Been following (7) Saint Lawrence all campaign and he was very good with the blinkers going on last start. Comes through the same race as Tuff Tu Muss and was a superior run, but the query is the map: will get back off what looks a moderate tempo.
(9) First Chorus is going to prove hard to beat. She loves it here at Caulfield and any further rain is only going to enhance her chances. Had every possible when winning last time out and rises in grade, but after the claim has just 51.5kg on her back. Short enough at $2.50, but absolutely a winning hope.
Like how (4) Unlimited has trialled and his three Caulfield runs have all been excellent, including a win over Gilded Water in then spring. The knock would be a wet deck as he’s better on top of the ground – but think he can run a forward race first up.
Doesn’t end there!
(6) Tuff Tu Muss
(7) Saint Lawrence
(6) Unlimited
(9) First Chorus
Suggested bet: Small plays on Tuff Tu Muss/Saint Lawrence
Race 6
Not mad on the race.
(7) Kings Reflection is ready to win. He was badly held up at Flemington last start just as he needed to build momentum, and I think he can turn the tables on (3) Brilliantezza, who is herself a talented young stayer. Jye McNeil will need to be at his best from gate two. Ideally, he uses (4) Engine Of War drawn underneath him to keep Kings Reflection off the fence and into clear running at the right time.
Engine Of War is a good hope. Ready for the 2400m again and comes through a reasonably strong formline up in Sydney (wasn’t far off Decalogue two back and has a good weight swing in his favour).
(11) Don’t Doubt Dare can run a race at big odds. She’s always struck me as an out and out stayer and after several runs at 1600-1700m she steps sharply in trip to the mile-and-a-half. Her mother’s only two wins came over 2000m and 2400m. Drawn to get a gun run.
The pattern of the day, with a strong headwind making cover essential, saw Jabez Johnstone do everything he could to find a trail on (1) Decalogue. Unfortunately, the gelding over-raced badly, pulling himself into the ground and leaving himself with no chance of winning after doing so much wrong. There was still plenty of merit in the performance given the circumstances. He has a Norton bit going on here in an attempt to get him to settle but think the key component will be a reasonable speed, which he might have to set himself! Think he’s a big risk at 2400m but at least has the fitness base to give it a crack.
Thought (10) Ferrario was good coming through the same race as Declogue/(2) Dirnaseer/(5) Our Chief et al. May all come up a little too quickly for him, but he looks a stayer of promise.
(7) Kings Reflection
(3) Brilliantezza
(10) Ferrario
(11) Don’t Doubt Dare
Suggested bet: Just be happy to get through this leg of the quddie unscathed! Tough.
Race 7
Fascinating runner (1) Cosmic Crusader. Classy WA galloper who is already a Group 1 winner, albeit at 1800m. Now finds himself with Andrea Leek; the Leek’s do a fair bit of training for owner Bob Peters. He has jumped-out nicely alongside the sharp Pop Award. I’ve no doubt he’s the best horse in the race, but he has a bit against him. To me, he’s a 1400m plus galloper who thrives on clean air, yet he resumes over 1200m drawn the inside alley and could well get buried away on the fence. Can absolutely win, but enough against him for me to take him on first up.
(4) Aztec Ruler looks a big price at $26. Resumes without blinkers and has the equicast off for the first time since August 2024, which is a positive sign. Real intent with him here first up having had three jump-outs, all of which have been good. Was a bit unlucky in the Standish down the straight in the summer. He has been no match for Cosmic Crusader when they met back home in WA, but wasn’t disgraced by the same token, and think he has a few more things in his favour today. Not as good a horse as the favourite, but intent can mean a fair bit in racing.
For a 1200m race there’s not a lot of speed and that could present (3) Zou Sensation with a soft run on speed. His run in the Meteorite behind Jigsaw and Arkansaw Kid the last time he was at 1200m in Victoria was a cracker, and a repeat of that would see him awfully hard to beat. Liked his recent jump-out at Werribee – he looks ready to rock.
(8) Miraval Rose went back from a wider draw first up in the Monash but was strong late. Suspect they press the button and roll forward now up to 1200m, which Jordan Childs back in the saddle. She has come back in great order.
(7) Winnasedge is flying. Loves the track and maps for a perfect run. Prefer him at 1100m than 1200m, but he’s still effective at the trip.
(4) Aztec Ruler
(3) Zou Sensation
(8) Miraval Rose
(7) Winnasedge
Suggested bet: Can have something small Aztec Ruler/Zou Sensation
Race 8
(3) Prince Eric won the key lead-up to this, a 2000m BM84 at Caulfield, but there was a clear excuse for some of his rivals. A strong headwind made life difficult for those on speed, while Prince Eric enjoyed the ideal run in transit. (11) Amleto was heavily backed in the same race and ran well. The wide gate makes John Allen’s task tricky, but he’s in terrific form.
On the same day, (2) Makdane produced one of the performances of the meeting in a different race. He was exposed to the breeze throughout yet still stuck on exceptionally well. Craig Williams partnered both Makdane and Amleto at their latest starts and, whether by choice or circumstance, sticks with Makdane here. From the wide draw he can roll forward, control the race and make his own luck.
That said, I think the horse to beat is the King’s runner, (15) Aeolian. He jumped cleanly on Australian debut at Sandown before being restrained to the tail, which effectively ended his chances in a slowly run race that strongly favoured those on speed. Looking back through his UK form, he’s shown he can settle much closer, including when breaking his maiden at Newmarket. Down to 50kg after Jabez Johnstone’s claim, he’s the one to beat if they ride him positively early.
(15) Aeolian
(2) Makdane
(3) Prince Eric
(12) Belle Savoir
Suggested bet: Keen on the race. Backing both Aeolian and Makdane – think it’s one of the best plays on the card.
Race 9
What a cracking race to finish the day. Pleasingly, tempo looks strong.
Key form race was won by (2) Cruiserweight who put paid to (5) Celtics over the concluding stages this track and trip last start. Cruiserweight looks a promising galloper who maps for a lovely run off what should be a hot tempo – a perfect setup for him.
That said, Celtics isn’t without a chance of turning the tables. Had it not been for the headwind last start suspect he would’ve settled much closer to the speed having jumped evenly, but they rode to the pattern of the day. He gets a good weight turnaround on Cruiserweight and will likely have a headstart in the run.
(4) Jenni Gone Bonkers ran fourth in the same race behind Cruiserweight and she had easily the toughest run in transit, facing the breeze throughout. She gets a much kinder setup here and should have good fitness improvement to come, having been first up. Maps for an ideal run and at $13-$14 she seems far too big in early markets.
(7) Barking Mad looks a real talent. He was totally dominant at Sandown last start. This is tougher, but he’s on the up.
(4) Jenni Gone Bonkers
(5) Celtics
(2) Cruiserweight
(7) Barking Mad
Suggested bet: Concede Cruiserweight is hard to topple but can’t see much fat in the $2.10 on offer. Can get $3 + the place about Jenni Gone Bonkers, who I can’t see running a bad race, so something 1×3 on her.
