Race 1
I thought (9) Empress Rossa trialled well prior to her debut and she backed that up with a strong performance in a better maiden at Warrnambool. Was well backed late there: $5.50 into $4.80. The little step to 1200m is suitable and she should camp leader’s back from a soft gate. The only knock is backing up so quickly off a very heavy track on debut which can go two ways; but back the stable in to only be backing her up as she has recovered well. Will definitely get through that going, that’s for sure.
Tom Dabernig has three in the race, and the market quickly identified (10) Just My Lot as the main danger, quickly taking the $5 and firming her into $3.50, and I think that’s right. She’s trialled up very nicely for this return, has a strong rider in Will Gordon on and will only be getting better late in the race as others are wilting at the end of 1200m.
(8) Cinnamon Kiss and (4) Mister Solly went to the line locked together – albeit on opposite sides of the track – at Mount Gambier last start. Slight knock on Mister Solly is bandages going on here, but he will press forward and take catching.
Suggested bet: Think $2.25 + is a good price about Empress Rossa. Her debut run was superior to anything her rivals have done and she should only improve.
Race 4
Collectively this group have had 17 wins from 253 starts! One with the worst strike rate is (6) Irlandis, but I think she’s right in the game. Blinkers went back on again last start and she ran well behind Hasta La Amnesty. She didn’t have much luck in town the start prior. She goes well on wet ground and strikes a very winnable race.
Think (9) Turntyne is a big price at $11. If he can run up to what he did at Mornington two back he will win this. Got too far back but was strong to the line at Coleraine last start. Was 8 weeks between runs there so should strip notably fitter and can settle right on the speed from gate two.
Suggested bet: Backing Turntyne at $11, Irlandis at $6.
Race 5
Backing (7) Two Kay Klick each-way. Liked how this bloke jumped-out at Hamilton leading into this first up run – he moved well and ran OK time for the morning. He generally goes well fresh, his best ratings are very much up to winning a race like this, and provided it’s not a one-lane highway on the fence (which Hamilton can be at times) he will be strong late out wide on the track. Big price at $13.
Liked the run of (2) Derelict at Bairnsdale. Got too far back in a race won on speed, but was home some of the day’s best late splits. Step to 1100m is ideal, very heavy ground some query but if he gets through, he’s right in the game. (1) Rockliff loves the slop.
Suggested bet: Backing Two Kay Klick E/W @ $13, also backing Derelict @ $6.
