Race 1
This race has become far more interesting with the scratching of Mistressof Mayfair who I thought was about her right price at $2.
Pretty keen on (10) Zoumania at $10. There were genuine excuses in all three runs last campaign. Got too far back at Kerang on debut but was home the best last 200m split of the meeting in a race that produced several subsequent winners. Was chopped out at a crucial stage at Geelong at her second start, again a race that produced several subsequent winners. Then she was pulled out of the race at Seymour when the jockey felt something was amiss at her only other run. She has looked good in two jump-outs leading into this, the most recent with the blinkers on, which she will wear for the first time. Would love Maskiell to get aggressive on her early and try put her in the race. $10 looks a massive price.
Wary of (2) Bivvy who should be strong late on debut. Cindy Alderson has had a good few weeks with her horses, including a couple of wins here at Moe two meetings back. Has shown ability in jump-outs and Jye McNeil has also hit a patch of form.
(5) Nedhammer Hen is racing consistently and this is the weakest race he has contested this campaign. Ran well at this track on debut.
(3) Duke Of Oman was OK on debut at Sandown, getting back on a leader dominated day. Think he wants further in time.
Suggested bet: Keen on Zoumania at the $10. Good 1×3 bet.
Race 2
A number of chances here. Having small plays on a couple of roughies.
(6) Highaboveme ran a cracker three back at Echuca in what proved a strong form race – if she can reproduce that she will take a stack of beating. She hasn’t had the clearest room her past couple when drawing the inside alley. Maps for a lovely run today and think she can run better than the 20/1 price she is.
(8) Lost The Plot has been scratched a few times the past couple of weeks but resumes toady. Form is putrid, but her jump-outs with blinkers on this time in have been good. Hopefully they put the hammer down from the wide draw, lead, and give them something to catch.
(1) Mighty Mystic was backed at a price on debut here at Moe. Ran well on what was an absolute bog. Draws to spot them a decent start today but will be strong late.
(5) Galactic Girl is a great hope, but think the market is heavily factoring in her racing in town last start and I don’t think there was much depth to the race/performance. She’d be $6-$7 if she was simply coming into this off her first-up run at Echuca.
Concern with (7) Kadesh is the wet track. If she gets through it well she’s the horse to beat. Latest trial was solid. Ran well in some handy Maidens when with Team Hayes – now with Cindy Alderson.
Suggested bet: Something small Highaboveme/Lost The Plot
Race 3
There looks very good speed here and I think they will take a sit with (10) Seven Day Rebels today. He used the inside draw to lead at Bendigo on debut but think that was as much wanting to stay away from the fence. Spanked by Panchenko there but beat home No Friends who has since won. Has a run under his belt where a number of key rivals are first-up.
(12) Regal Vanguard might be the main danger. Went around in a hot Maiden first-up at Werribee before running quite well on a bog track at Wangaratta last start. Layed back to the inside rail when getting tired on a Heavy 10 at the same track last start, but was entitled to tire after setting a cracking tempo. Tight-turning Moe circuit should suit.
(3) Question Time can run a race on debut. Given a soft trial at Sale leading in. Clearly a horse that has taken some time being a 4yo gelding, but with a reasonable run in transit could run a race at odds.
Suggested bet: Small dutch (back both to win the same amount) Seven Day Rebels/Regal Vanguard.
Race 5
Nice horse (2) Trangoojahray and her best wins this, but not convinced she’s going at her best. She has only had two runs in 15 months and her first-up run at Sandown was flattered by how the track was playing. She had trialled just fairly leading in and genuinely heavy ground is my concern. Can absolutely win, but at the very short quote happy to look elsewhere.
(1) Red On Red rarely runs a bad race, especially for Jason Maskiell. He’s had a very good preparation to date, likes it here at Moe and will have no issue with the 61.5kg. Ticks a lot of boxes.
Give (12) Ninyo some fluker’s hope at a big price. She’s very much hit and miss, but the last two times she’s been to Moe she has won, including on heavy ground back in September last year. Goes well off a freshen and tongue tie going on suggests they may have got on top of a little issue. All four career wins have come on heavy ground.
Suggested bet: Something Red On Red, smaller Ninyo at a big price.
Race 8
Like (5) Struggle Street. Went off a run early first-up at 1000m with her at Cranbourne – she was already looking for 1200m. Ruby Lamont jumps back aboard this mare for the first time this campaign and she has a good affinity with the horse having ridden her three times for two wins and a second. Draws for the softest run imaginable.
(9) Of The View had her chance first-up at Bendigo but ran well enough by the same token. This is probably a touch easier and she, too, draws for a nice run.
(1) Mrs Archibald has run well here at Moe in the past. Cut the corner at Geelong last start – along with the winner – and think that flattered her a touch. But looks ready now fourth-up.
Suggested bet: Keen Struggle Street.
