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Point Barrow was back at the trials

Point Barrow was back at the trials

Matt Welsh: Spring’s rising stars

Who are the horses from Melbourne's Spring Carnival most likely to go on and win a Group 1 come the autumn?

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
November 18, 2025
in Analysis
Reading Time: 4 mins read
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Point Barrow (3yo filly)

I made no secret of my opinion on this filly during the Spring Carnival. She was arguably unlucky on debut in the 2024 Merson Cooper, a hot form race, before being put away for nine months.

She resumed at Bendigo and defied the pattern of the day (on pace and inside), narrowly beating a handy field. The win was better than it looked. She then went to Sandown and put away a strong field of emerging sprinters, doing so by 2L without coming off the bridle. It was a serious performance.

Her run in the Champagne at The Valley was enormous. She simply got too far back with the pattern against her, but only a good horse gets as close as she did, rattling off the best last 400m split of the meeting. She again produced the meeting’s best late splits in winning a 3YO Fillies race at Caulfield on Guineas Day, coming from 12th on the corner while wanting to lay in up the straight.

POINT BARROW 💥

A massive win from the back! She’s a very good filly ⭐@DanielStack33 @FreedmanRacing pic.twitter.com/Sx5pJ6ZiIf

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 11, 2025

Her final run of the campaign was a popular win in the Red Roses on Oaks Day. Stone last at halfway, she unleashed that trademark change up speed to reel in subsequent winner Inkaruna.

Point Barrow shows her class. 👏

🖥 #MelbCupCarnival | Live and Free on Channel 9 and 9Now.#9WWOS #OaksDay #Racing pic.twitter.com/hbTONtScqL

— Wide World of Sports (@wwos) November 6, 2025

She is a weapon. The most exciting part is that she is still green and still improving. She rose through the grades beautifully this prep, but she has bigger things ahead.

Napoleonic (3yo colt)

A lovely son of Wootton Basset, who was sadly lost during the spring. This colt worked his way through the grades early in the campaign before earning a crack at Stakes grade in the Roman Consul, where he acquitted himself well up in grade.

A trip to Melbourne then saw him go to another level. He settled off speed in the Red Anchor Stakes on Cox Plate day before putting his rivals to the sword, winning by 4L and doing it eased down. His turn of foot was electric and he defied the prevailing pattern of the day, looping the field out wide.

Red Anchor Stakes | Napoleonic

Napoleonic has panels on them 🤯⭐️ @mcacajamez has his eye in early, piloting the Wootton Bassett colt to a decisive win!

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/EN4ITxdatW

— Racing.com (@Racing) October 25, 2025

He did not beat a star laden field at The Valley, but the way he did it was what mattered. He will need to rise again to match the top three-year-olds in the autumn, yet he shapes as a colt on the improve who can take that next step.

 

Sheza Alibi

She brought the right form through the Queensland winter, having run second to Autumn Boy in the Tattersall’s Stakes. Handy in hindsight. This was her first campaign for Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman and the blinkers may well be the making of her.

She was solid against the boys, including Tentyris, in the Gothic Stakes, but she probably went to another level when the blinkers went on and she stepped to 1400m in The Vanity. Held up for much of the straight, she only needed a small gap to burst through and win with authority, much to the delight of punters.

Never in doubt 😤

SHEZA ALIBI comes through traffic to win the @tabcomau Vanity for Luke Nolen and Moody Racing.

🎥 @wwos | #DerbyDay | #MelbCupCarnival pic.twitter.com/59tyleJijY

— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) November 1, 2025

What she produced in the Sandown Guineas last Saturday was impossible to miss. Sent out a prohibitive 1.50 favourite against the boys, she was expected to win, but she demolished them by a widening 5.75L. The caveat is that it was a slowly run Sandown Guineas, but she still reeled off the day’s best last 400m and 200m splits on a card that featured some sharp sprint races.

On the strength of this preparation, she is the best middle distance filly we saw through the spring.

SHEZA ALIBI, SHEZA STAR ⭐

The most dominant of Sandown Guineas wins for Sheza Alibi! The Nolen/Moody/Coleman combo might just have another special one on their hands 😉@moodyracingpgm @kscoleman pic.twitter.com/KZMLtcwsJS

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) November 15, 2025

Tags: Cox PlateMelbourne CupNapoleonicPoint BarrowSheza AlibiSpring Carnival
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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