Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 2 (2) Demerzel
- Next Best: Race 4 (7) Claudel
- Value Bet: Race 7 (4) Madrina
Turf Talk
- The track is rated at a Soft 7 at time of writing but the forecast is clear in the days leading up and race day so potentially looking at an upgrade to a 5/6 if the showers stay away.
- The rail moves out from the previous meeting here on the public holiday and will be +3m the entire.
- In similar conditions at recent meetings, it has been an advantage for on speed types.
Stats that matter
- Nash Rawiller is flying and profitable to follow recently. He has ridden 22 winners from his previous 100 rides to return a POT of +21.4%. He boasts a winning strike rate of 18.9% at this track as well.
- Good time of year to be following Ciaron Maher’s stable. They have produced 22 winners from their previous 100 runners and a handy POT of +34.4% which is impressive stats for a large team.
Race 1
(1) Farset has been consistent so far this prep having run 2nd in all but his last start. He is on the quick back up, meets a potentially easier field today and maps for a positive run so can improve and go close again.
(7) Wairarapa was good on debut when running on well for 3rd. She looks suited rising in distance so gets her chance to improve and looks a winning chance.
(5) Reschs Milk was disappointing on debut when she was well in the market. The performance looked too bad to be true so potentially had an excuse there. She sets up for a good run here and can find sharp improvement.
(9) Scoish Maloish improved into the placings last start when getting to a suitable distance. This is a similar trip, and he maps well from the low barrier so gets every chance again over this distance range.
Selections:
(1) Farset
(7) Wairarapa
(5) Reschs Milk
(9) Scoish Maloish
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(2) Demerzel was solid in her debut performance at Warwick Farm but looks a runner who will take big benefit out of a run and with improving conditions here today she may be better suited and maps for a soft lead so should prove tough to catch.
(5) Woodenbridge was moderate on debut and went straight to the paddock after that, but that was in a much stronger race so she is capable of improving down in grade and her recent trials were strong.
(7) Consulate returns for her 2nd campaign having had the one run so far into her career. She comes here in good order after two trials and with a light weight on her back looks likely to be hitting the line strongly.
A few are making their debuts in this today and the one who potentially looks best ready for a strong 1st up run is (1) Castelbella. She gets an ideal barrier out of 2 to give her a soft run and recent trials over the sprint trip have been handy.
Selections:
(2) Demerzel
(5) Woodenbridge
(7) Consulate
(1) Castelbella
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Demerzel
Race 3
(3) By Napolean Hill has his second career start here. He was well supported on debut and managed to run in for 2nd. Expecting he takes benefit from that run and with Nash Rawiller in the saddle jumping from barrier 2, he should get a positive run which will suit.
(5) Elio ran in for 3rd behind By Napolean Hill last start. He is fitter 2nd up now and maps for a better run so could potentially turn the tables and win this.
(1) Defensemen resumes. His finishing position in his last start was moderate but that was in a much stronger race. He may find improvement down in grade and comes into this in good order with two trials under his belt.
(8) Snitzel A’La Rouge ran midfield in his debut run over this exact same track/distance set up. Expect he will take good experience from that run and can improve back at a similar set up.
Selections:
(3) By Napolean Hill
(5) Elio
(1) Defensemen
(8) Snitzel A’La Rouge
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
(7) Claudel made a good impression when running 2nd on debut at Warwick Farm. That was a Maiden that rated well so if she can find any level of improvement from that run it would have her hard to beat, especially given she looks likely to get a soft run from a low barrier.
(8) Gatwick was well supported last start but faded late to be run over. She maps for an easier run here and could find the lead quickly with little trouble, which should see her stronger late in the race.
(2) Flying Artisam has run 2nd in both starts this preparation. He will likely appreciate the slight drop back in distance and is at peak fitness.
(4) King For A Day hit the line strongly in his debut. He looks suited to a rise in distance and jumps from a much better barrier which could see him settle closer in the run.
Selections:
(7) Claudel
(8) Gatwick
(2) Flying Artisam
(4) King For A Day
Suggested Bet: Win (7) Claudel
Race 5
Interesting race with the favourite looking a good type, but at the value I am keener to side with (3) Full Hao. She has been moderate in her two starts this preparation but should find this easier dropping in grade. Jumping from the inside barrier, she gets the chance to enjoy a positive run and if she settles closer, she should get every chance.
(5) Viewpoint will likely appreciate improving track conditions. He is capable of racing on speed which should suit around Canterbury and gives him his best chance.
(4) Mo Chroi is one of the more interesting runners on the program. The Irish import makes his Australian debut off a long break. His European form was very good, although he may improve further once he gets over more ground and gains race fitness.
(11) Missile Leader would not surprise at a big price. He is in good form and gets in light at the weights after the claim.
Selections:
(3) Full Hao
(5) Viewpoint
(4) Mo Chroi
(11) Missile Leader
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Open betting race.
(13) Think I Will is a last-start maiden winner looking to go on with the job. He raced positively last start and if he can do the same again here, he could prove tough to catch with a light weight and confidence on his side.
(6) Format is at peak fitness now third-up this preparation. He was well supported last start but never really got into the race. Fitter now and with more speed expected, he may get a more suitable set-up.
(7) Le Troisir was impressive winning last start. The expected conditions suit him and he gets every chance again, although the slight drop back in distance may not be ideal.
(10) Velaris is a last start winner over this course and distance. The rise in grade is the obvious query but he should have confidence from that victory.
Selections:
(13) Think I Will
(6) Format
(7) Le Troisir
(10) Velaris
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
Looks a tough race to map with several of the key chances drawn wide.
(4) Madrina is not one of those and looks set to get the run of the race from barrier two. She drops in the weights after the apprentice claim and should be well suited in this grade if she gets the soft run expected.
(16) Eton was a dominant winner at Wagga last start to break his maiden. This is tougher but barrier one should see him settle handy and improving conditions are in his favour.
(3) Bat Out Of Hell resumes here. He has a good fresh record and two recent trials suggest he is ready to run well first-up.
(14) Island Dec has been moderate in two runs so far this prep but is dropping in grade today and maps for a soft run so appears to get the right set up to find improvement.
Selections:
(4) Madrina
(16) Eton
(3) Bat Out Of Hell
(14) Island Dec
Suggested Bet: Each Way (4) Madrina
