Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 2 (1) Bold Secret
- Next Best: Race 8 (9) Reina Isabella
- Value Bet: Race 6 (11) Noble Work
Turf Talk
- The track is currently rated a Soft 6 at the time of writing, but with clear weather during the day that could slightly improve. Expecting the track to still be at least a Soft 5 for Race 1.
- The rail pushes out from last week and will be +3m the entire circuit.
- Given the wet conditions, runners are likely to come away from the inside lanes in the straight and it should prove a slight advantage to settle in the front half of the field.
Stats that matter
- John McArdle brings four strong chances to this meeting and his stable is in good form with 19 winners from the last 100 runners at a POT return of +20.4%. He has also produced a POT of +21.8% at Pakenham.
- Olivia East has a strong book of rides and continues to make the most of her claim. She is currently striking at 18.6% with a POT return of +11.9%.
Race 2
(1) Bold Secret resumes for the second preparation of his career having contested stronger races earlier in his career. This is the easiest race he has seen to date and if he can run up to the level of last prep he should prove hard to beat in this grade.
(6) Tassorting ran second when resuming at Mornington and is fitter here second up. A rise in distance should suit as he will likely be hitting the line strongly again.
(2) Bolting Blue showed improvement at his last start and could do so again now he is at peak fitness third up into the prep.
(10) Model Gigi showed good speed on debut before fading late. She can take improvement out of that run and in a small field should race prominently again, which may suit.
Selections:
(1) Bold Secret
(6) Tassorting
(2) Bolting Blue
(10) Model Gigi
Suggested Bet: (1) Bold Secret WIN
Race 6
(11) Noble Work made a good return this preparation when running second behind (7) Lady Sadler here two weeks ago. He was doing his best work late in the run, hitting the line strongly, so the set-up looks ideal here with a lighter weight and rise to 1600m. Now fitter second up, he can go one better.
(7) Lady Sadler has found good form this prep with two wins from three starts, including a last start victory here. She can potentially take up the lead, which will suit at this track.
(1) Factcheck is another capable of taking up the lead and he rates highly coming off a last start win at this track and distance, but with a high rating he has a big weight despite the handy apprentice claim.
(4) Maldini needs to find some improvement after a pair of moderate runs but will be better suited dropping in grade.
Selections:
(11) Noble Work
(7) Lady Sadler
(1) Factcheck
(4) Maldini
Suggested Bet: (11) Noble Work WIN
Race 8
(9) Reina Isabella resumes here in a set-up that looks ideal. She has a strong record at this track and handles wet conditions, so the track should prove no issue late in the night. Critically, she looks likely to get out in front easily with little early speed engaged and if she controls the race softly she should prove tough to catch.
(10) Zunna also resumes and kicks off this preparation down in grade from where she finished last campaign. She has won first up previously, although the wide barrier is a slight knock despite the chute start.
(11) Olivia Rose has fitness on her side and is second up into this race after running well fresh. She maps to get every chance from barrier 2.
(8) Mongolian Gobi resumes and has won first up previously. She also looked sharp in a recent trial and could produce a strong fresh performance.
Selections:
(9) Reina Isabella
(10) Zunna
(11) Olivia Rose
(8) Mongolian Gobi
Suggested Bet: (9) Reina Isabella WIN
