Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 (2) Leading Impact
Race 7 (3) Full Commitment
Race 6 (2) No Mans Land (Each-way)
Turf Talk:
- The track is rated a Soft 6 at the time of writing, with little rain forecast leading into race day, so conditions are expected to remain in the soft range.
- This is the first meeting at Balaklava in almost two months, with the rail returning to the true position for the first time since April.
- Balaklava generally races fairly and, with even conditions expected, runners should get their chance from a variety of settling positions.
Stats that matter:
- Apprentice Alysha Warren continues to reward punters, riding 15 winners from her past 100 rides at a POT of +22.3%. She has also produced a POT of +42.9% from 41 career rides at Balaklava.
- Grant Kluske’s small stable continues to perform strongly, producing 13 winners from its past 100 runners with an outstanding POT of +50.1%. He saddles two runners in this meeting.
- David Jolly & Justin Potter have trained 16 winners from their past 100 runners. While that has returned a negative POT overall, their record at Balaklava is much stronger with a POT of +23%, making them worth following on their home track.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(2) Strong Minded brings the race fitness advantage into this contest, now third-up for the preparation. He showed sharp improvement when running into the placings at Balaklava last start and, from a low draw, maps for a much softer run here, giving him every opportunity to go close.
(9) Mahaler resumes for her second preparation after showing early talent with two placings in her first campaign. She has had two lead-up trials leading into this assignment, suggesting she should be forward enough to produce a bold first-up performance.
(4) Xitan makes his race debut after winning both of his lead-up trials, including an impressive performance at Strathalbyn. He has drawn well and profiles as a genuine winning chance if he can reproduce that trial form on race day.
(7) Electric Beel was only moderate on debut but may have had excuses in the run. She should take plenty of improvement from that experience, maps for a soft run and can improve significantly second-up.
Selections:
(2) Strong Minded
(9) Mahaler
(4) Xitan
(7) Electric Beel
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
(4) Navy Rok looks close to breaking through after putting together a series of consistent performances in slightly stronger maiden company. He looked to appreciate the rise to 1600m when beaten narrowly into second last start, remains at that trip here and maps to enjoy another favourable run.
(3) Bay Road Boy attracted solid market support on debut but raced greenly before showing clear improvement when placed at his second start. He maps to get a better run this time and the rise in distance looks another positive.
(6) Winston’s Pride has finished in the placings at his past two starts over this distance. If they run along at a genuine tempo, he should get every opportunity to be running on strongly late and doesn’t need to improve much to figure prominently.
(10) Or Am I looks well suited stepping back up to the 1600m. After the apprentice claim she gets in below the minimum weight, which gives her every chance to be charging home late.
Selections:
(4) Navy Rok
(3) Bay Road Boy
(6) Winston’s Pride
(10) Or Am I
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
(5) Mr Vexatious looks to have found a slightly easier race than those he has contested at his past few starts. He maps to settle prominently, which should suit, and this shapes as a very suitable opportunity to return to winning form.
(4) Impending Fury was only fair first-up but is expected to improve significantly now fitter and rising to a more suitable distance.
(8) Polar Eyes has filled a place at her past two starts, including one at this track. She drops in the weights, maps positively and has genuine claims.
Stablemate (7) Paringa finished midfield on debut but should take good improvement from that experience. The rise in distance looks ideal and she can take another step forward.
Selections:
(5) Mr Vexatious
(4) Impending Fury
(8) Polar Eyes
(7) Paringa
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
(2) Leading Impact made only a moderate start for his new stable at Morphettville but had genuine excuses late in the race and may not have been fully tested. His previous form reads much better than what he produced there, and this represents a drop in grade into a more suitable contest. Expect him to bounce back.
(5) Dazelles resumes after winning a recent trial in impressive fashion and looks to have returned in good order. She is likely to be hitting the line strongly and will appreciate a genuinely run race to allow her to finish over the top.
(3) Summertime Madness broke through for a deserved maiden victory last start. He remains at the same distance and, with confidence now on his side, looks capable of taking another step forward.
(4) He’s A Cool Cat was below his best through the latter stages of his previous campaign, but those runs came in stronger company. He resumes in easier grade, on his home track, and this looks a much more suitable set-up.
Selections:
(2) Leading Impact
(5) Dazelles
(3) Summertime Madness
(4) He’s A Cool Cat
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Leading Impact
Race 5:
(4) Divine Fire backs up quickly after another placing at Balaklava on Sunday. She continues to race consistently, boasts a strong record at this track despite not having won here, and looks to have found another suitable race.
(2) Taupo Tiger broke a long run between wins last start over this distance. While he rises in grade, he should enjoy a soft run from barrier three and again be strong through the line.
(11) Dexter Dream has been searching for a maiden victory for some time but gets in with a light weight and maps to settle prominently. In this grade and under these conditions he wouldn’t surprise.
(5) I Love This Song won impressively last start but now appears ready to step up in distance. He has already won at this course and distance and should again be competitive.
Selections:
(4) Divine Fire
(2) Taupo Tiger
(11) Dexter Dream
(5) I Love This Song
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
(2) No Mans Land won on debut before producing two below-par performances at his next two starts. Those races were stronger, he had little luck after drawing wide on both occasions, and this shapes as a much better opportunity. He drops in grade, draws barrier three and should get every chance to bounce back.
(6) Kalosyni resumed with a tough win at Murray Bridge. While her second-up record isn’t outstanding, she again gets in with a light weight and should race prominently, which could prove advantageous around Balaklava.
(10) Vexatious Choice finished a close second behind Kalosyni last start and meets her slightly better at the weights. However, if he settles too far back again it could prove difficult to reel the leaders in.
(3) Prodigal Lad has won multiple races at this track and maps to enjoy an ideal run on speed from a low barrier. With a positive rider aboard, he has to be respected.
Selections:
(2) No Mans Land
(6) Kalosyni
(10) Vexatious Choice
(3) Prodigal Lad
Suggested Bet: Each-way (2) No Mans Land
Race 7:
(3) Full Commitment broke through at Echuca before stepping into stronger grade at her past two starts, where she performed with plenty of merit on both occasions. She now drops back in class and returns to the 1600m after hitting the line strongly last start, making this an ideal assignment.
(13) Unwind finished off well at Murray Bridge and has now placed at her past two starts. This race sets up similarly and, if the track is playing evenly, she should again be charging home late.
(1) Heroic Rebel made only a moderate start for his new stable but may find this a much easier race. His previous Queensland form was stronger than it appears on paper, while the rise in distance and favourable race map should see improvement.
(5) Allegedly has had a quiet start to his preparation but generally produces his best racing over this course and distance, making him worthy of respect back in his preferred conditions.
Selections:
(3) Full Commitment
(13) Unwind
(1) Heroic Rebel
(5) Allegedly
Suggested Bet: Win (3) Full Commitment
