Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 8 #12 Beyond Mysti
Next Best: Race 2 #5 Miss Slipstream
Value Bet: Race 3 #1 Dramaticus
Best Roughie: Race 7 #6 Texan Windstorm
Turf Talk
- Clear and warm weather is forecast for race day, with clear conditions in the lead-up, so expect the meeting to be run on a Good 4 rated track.
- The rail pushes out slightly from last weekend’s meeting and will be +9m from the 1000m to winning post, and +6m for the remainder.
- It was an advantage to settle forward in running last week and, with the rail moving out again today, expect it to again favour on-speed types.
Key stats:
- Luke O’Connor has his stable star Placo engaged here and the yard is in super form, with 14 wins from its last 100 runners at a POT of +69.3%.
- Kayla Crowther is finding good form in the saddle with 16 winners from her last 100 rides at a POT return of +12.1%. She is booked for five rides here.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(1) Lalor was well supported in a stronger race on debut at Murray Bridge off the back of some strong trial form. He can be suited racing on speed at this track and has fitness on his side.
(2) Czech Out made his debut late last year in a strong race that has since produced good 2YO form. That race rated highly and he has been given more time to find improvement.
(3) The Speed Machine has been met with early market support here on debut. Both of his trial wins in Victoria have looked quite impressive, so expect a strong debut performance.
(5) Vandaross is the other runner in this field with race experience and that should prove to be an advantage.
Selections:
(1) Lalor
(2) Czech Out
(3) The Speed Machine
(5) Vandaross
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(5) Miss Slipstream has been impressive winning both runs this prep. She may have improvement to come fitter here after being off a four-week break last start, and can produce a peak rating while key rivals are fresh and may still have improvement to come.
(2) Santasia rated highly when winning her last start after a pair of placings. She is in form and racing with confidence, so may be able to go on with it now.
(1) Justa Star found good form last prep and resumes here down slightly in grade from where he finished last campaign. Not previously a strong first-up performer, but he may be suited dropping in class.
(6) Creek resumes and rates highly in this field, though he may be better suited over more ground deeper into the prep. He will be running on late.
Selections:
(5) Miss Slipstream
(2) Santasia
(1) Justa Star
(6) Creek
Suggested Bet: (5) Miss Slipstream – Win
Race 3
(1) Dramaticus kicks off his campaign here in SA. He has won first-up previously, recent trials have been strong and he gets the soft map from the inside barrier. He rates well in this grade to kick off.
(7) Sassy For Sure is on the quick back-up after hitting the line strongly last week. She maps slightly better today and may be able to settle closer in the run.
(6) More Than Hope has good early speed and looks the likely leader. He will be prominent in the run and may find this slightly easier than last start, which has since proven to be a good form race.
(3) I Am Piki is a last-start winner and has confidence now. She may be better suited at a track that favours on-speed runners.
Selections:
(1) Dramaticus
(7) Sassy For Sure
(6) More Than Hope
(3) I Am Piki
Suggested Bet: (1) Dramaticus – Win
Race 4
(2) Burning Bright rated highly when winning over this trip last weekend and again sets up well to race on speed. She remains well in at the weights and, if afforded a similar run, should again prove hard to catch.
(3) Bring Forth comes across from Victoria and looks ready for a staying trip now third-up into the prep. He can stack up in a race of this level.
(1) El James has freshened up since a strong effort in The Lord Reims Stakes. He should find this race easier and is suited dropping in grade.
(6) Theodor is another on the quick back-up after finishing second in a similar race last week. He was doing his best work late there and, in a similar set-up today, should be hitting the line strongly again.
Selections:
(2) Burning Bright
(3) Bring Forth
(1) El James
(6) Theodor
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
This is a tough maiden to have confidence in as it is a tricky race to map out.
(10) Whiskey Tumbler looks likely to jump favourite after an impressive debut at Murray Bridge. The wide barrier is not ideal, but he may have the speed to cross early.
(8) Prestige Erick has shown improvement across his two runs in Victoria. Up to 1250m looks ideal, though he is another who may need luck from a wide barrier.
(7) Arizona Wildfire had market support on debut but was slightly disappointing, then went straight to the paddock. He has shown improvement in two recent trials and can bounce back.
(3) City Pro ran third when resuming and that race has produced multiple winners since. It reads as a good form reference for this.
Selections:
(10) Whiskey Tumbler
(8) Prestige Erick
(7) Arizona Wildfire
(3) City Pro
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(8) Placo was super impressive second-up when producing a high rating to smash his rivals. He is third-up today and has previously been undefeated at this stage of a prep. If he can produce another peak performance, he will be hard to beat given his record at the distance and lighter weight against rivals.
(5) A Samurai Mind fought on gamely to run third in the Listed CS Hayes Stakes on Cup Day. He should find this easier and is suited both down in grade and back to 1400m.
(3) Pudding resumes down in grade from where he finished last prep. He has a good first-up record and looks ready to fire after winning a recent trial at Oakbank.
(2) Cinque Torri continues to be around the mark in similar races. Again he maps for a favourable run and is at peak fitness, so can surprise at odds.
Selections:
(8) Placo
(5) A Samurai Mind
(3) Pudding
(2) Cinque Torri
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(6) Texan Windstorm has run second in two of his last three starts over this distance, both behind in-form runners that have proven strong form lines. He gets a suitable race map for how this track is expected to play and has a strong record at this track and distance. He can push forward and give them something to catch at a price.
(1) Hot Digity Boom was an impressive winner two starts back over 1400m before contesting a stronger race at Flemington. He drops in grade and maps well from the inside barrier.
(4) Cash put in two average runs recently in Queensland but looked to get back to his better form when third in the 3YO Magic Millions race at Murray Bridge. If he is back to his best, he measures up well.
(7) Stay Silent has shown speed in his last couple of starts and that is expected to suit here if the track is playing as it was last weekend.
Selections:
(6) Texan Windstorm
(1) Hot Digity Boom
(4) Cash
(7) Stay Silent
Suggested Bet: (6) Texan Windstorm – Each-way
Race 8
(12) Beyond Mysti was an impressive winner on debut at Murray Bridge recently. Sent straight to the paddock off the back of that performance, she may be a progressive type and, with any improvement on that debut rating, should prove hard to beat.
(2) Dyer finished last in a stronger race last start and looks a likely improver fitter second-up and dropping in grade. He gets a positive race map, which will suit.
(4) In Love won a similar race last start and has good speed. He looks the runner most likely to lead and gets the soft run from barrier one.
(9) Smashing Action is another who gets a positive race map which should suit this track. Back slightly in distance and with a softer map today, she shapes well.
Selections:
(12) Beyond Mysti
(2) Dyer
(4) In Love
(9) Smashing Action
Suggested Bet: (12) Beyond Mysti – Win
Race 9
(1) Streetcar Apollo has not missed the top three in four runs this prep and is in super form. He was outclassed last start, so will be suited dropping slightly in grade today, and coming back to 1250m should suit as he will likely look to put plenty of speed into the race.
(9) Nicish hit the line strongly when resuming. She is fitter second-up and will be suited rising in distance, with a strong record at the trip. She may be back in the run, so could need luck at some stage.
(11) Acapella Moon got the breakthrough win last start after placing at her previous two starts. She was running on strongly there and remains at a similar trip today. She is in good enough form to be winning again.
(3) Willybeafactor would not shock at a big price. He drops in grade and is suited jumping from barrier two so can race prominently on speed.
Selections:
(1) Streetcar Apollo
(9) Nicish
(11) Acapella Moon
(3) Willybeafactor
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 10
Tough betting race to finish the program.
(11) Bargain Boy ran into the placings in a similar race last start. He may have finished closer in the end but found traffic late and was held up at one stage. Drawn wider today may give him a better chance to get clear running late.
(7) Safe Bet may have work to do from a wide barrier but, if he can find a soft run, he is down in class which looks suitable after a strong last-start effort.
(2) Smother comes into the race fresh and drops back in distance from the staying trips he has had recent success over. While he may be better suited over further, he has won at this trip before and gets the right race map.
(5) Gruelling rises in distance but maps for the right run on speed from a low barrier. He has the speed to push forward and is set up for a favourable race map.
Selections:
(11) Bargain Boy
(7) Safe Bet
(2) Smother
(5) Gruelling
Suggested Bet: No bet
